Javeri Fiscal Services Ltd. Daily Newsletter
NSE Intra-day chart (23 July 2018)
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Market Commentary 24 July 2018
Markets to make slightly positive start

 

Bulls tightened grip on Dalal Street on Monday with Sensex hitting fresh closing high, while Nifty ending near its crucial 11,100 mark. Markets started the session on a cautious note and traded with modest gain in a very tight range in first half, as traders reacted positively to the outcome of the no-confidence motion as the day progresses. The Narendra Modi government comfortably defeated the no-confidence motion in the Lok Sabha on Friday. Though, traders remained cautious about a report that continuing their selling spree, foreign investors have pulled out over Rs 2,000 crore from the capital markets this month so far on higher crude oil prices and a depreciating rupee. The latest sell-off comes after foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew over Rs 61,000 crore from the capital markets in the last three months (April to June). Buying, which emerged in second half of the session, took markets near intraday highs as traders got support with a private report that the 10 major economies of Asia, including India, are expected to see robust growth and amount to over $28 trillion in real GDP terms on aggregate, more than the US by 2030. Some support also came with retirement fund body EPFO's payroll data suggesting that as many as 4,474,859 jobs created during September 2017 to May this year. Meanwhile, the GST Council announced the reduction of rates on a list of 100 items, including sanitary pads, small TVs and footwear. Investors continued to take support from a report stating that ASEAN-India trade is likely to touch $100 billion by 2020 calling for greater cooperation between the two sides in economic sector. The street remained buoyed with industry chamber CII's statement that the decision of the GST Council to cut rates and simplification of return filing process will increase the compliance rate and add to revenue buoyancy. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 222.23 points or 0.61% to 36,718.60, while the CNX Nifty was up by 74.55 points or 0.68% to 11,084.75.

 

After the lackluster performance seen in previous week, the US markets ended mostly higher on Monday.  Second-quarter earnings and a rally in financial stocks helped the markets to close mostly higher. Financials are likely to see further gains as the sector recovers from a slight year-to-date selloff following worries on rate policy changes as a result of a new international tariff environment. Meanwhile, finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 made little progress on trade tensions at a weekend meeting in Buenos Aires, as both US and European Union officials held their ground. Though, investors have been worried that spats between the US and other major trading partners could explode into a full-scale trade war, damaging economic growth and investments. Sentiment were downbeat following the release of a report from the National Association of Realtors showing an unexpected drop in existing home sales in the month of June. NAR said existing home sales fell by 0.6% to an annual rate of 5.36 million in June from a downwardly revised rate of 5.41 million in May. Street had expected existing home sales to climb by 0.5%. There continues to be a mismatch since the spring between the growing level of homebuyer demand in most of the country in relation to the actual pace of home sales, which are declining. The unexpected drop in existing home sales came as declines in the South and West exceeded sales gains in the Northeast and Midwest. The S&P 500 gained 5.15 points or 0.18 percent to 2806.98 and the Nasdaq was up by 21.67 points or 0.28 percent to 7841.87, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 13.83 points or 0.06 percent to 25044.29.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Monday, as the market played down rhetoric between the US and Iran that had boosted the potential for tighter global supplies. There is a lot of uncertainty in oil currently, which can cause some of the ups or downs to quickly change the market direction, especially after Iran drew Trump's ire over the weekend. Despite the rhetoric, expectations for further gains in production from OPEC and its allies and a potential slowdown in global crude demand put more pressure on oil. Benchmark crude oil futures for September declined 37 cents or 0.5 percent to settle at $67.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. September Brent crude settled a penny lower at $73.06 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee gave up all of its initial gains and ended marginally weaker against dollar on Monday, due to fresh demand for the American currency from banks and importers. Market participants overlooked a private report that the 10 major economies of Asia, including India, are expected to see robust growth and amount to over $28 trillion in real GDP terms on aggregate, more than the US by 2030. Besides, dollar weakened against some currencies overseas coupled with strong gains in the local equity market failed to cast any impact on the rupee. On the global front, Japanese yen rallied to near two-week highs against euro on Monday following reports the central bank was debating moves to scale back its massive monetary stimulus. Finally, the rupee ended at 68.86, 3 paise weaker from its previous close of 68.83 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4643.05 crore against gross selling of Rs 4307.90 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1414.51 crore with gross sales of Rs 910.07 crore. Besides in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 12.41 crore against gross selling of Rs 15.65 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly higher on Monday, as investors waiting for earnings from marquee corporations to assess the impact of an escalating US-China trade row. Asian markets were trading mostly in green on Tuesday, as investors kept an eye on bond yields and the falling Chinese yuan. Last hour buying helped Indian equity markets to end Monday's trade on optimistic note, with Sensex settling to a fresh record high, led by gains in FMCG stocks after the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council reduced rates on a number of products. Today, the markets are likely to make a flat-to-positive start, tracking positive cues from Asian counterparts. Traders will be getting encouragement with report that the overall exports from India to BRICS saw an upswing of 7.5% in Q1 2018 Y-o-Y in terms of total volumes, while the country's imports from BRICS nations is reduced by 3.5%. There will be some support with report that the commerce ministry is working on an export promotion strategy to boost shipments of chemicals, plastics and allied products sector to push the growth of the country's overall exports. For the formulation of the strategy, the ministry has constituted a sub-group to deliberate upon the issues of the sector. Traders will be getting some encouragement with Union Finance Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that rising tax collections will further help reduce the tariffs. However, there will be some cautiousness with the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (SEBI) data showing that investments through participatory notes into Indian capital markets plunged to over nine-year low of Rs 83,688 crore at June-end amid stringent norms put in place by the SEBI to check the misuse of these instruments. Meanwhile, natural rubber production declined to 6.94 lakh tonnes in 2017-18 from 7.74 lakh tonnes in 2013-14. On the other hand, consumption of natural rubber increased from 9.81 lakh tonnes in 2013-14 to 11.11 lakh tonnes in 2017-18. There will be some important earnings announcements too to keep the markets buzzing.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

11,084.75

11,032.67

11,115.12

BSE Sensex

36,718.60

36,557.06

36,814.92

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

ITC

260.56

284.15

278.65

288.15

UPL

238.06

632.10

582.30

660.70

SBI

170.13

266.35

262.13

269.03

ICICI Bank

169.18

275.55

268.50

279.45

Hindalco

133.64

196.15

192.85

198.95

 

  • Reliance Industries' subsidiary -- Reliance Brands has purchased an additional 8.14% equity stake in GCL for about Rs 34.17 crore, taking its total stake in GCL to 9.29%. 
  • Bajaj Auto is planning to increase its share to 20% in domestic motorcycle market in the next two quarters. 
  • Power Grid has signed a MoU with Uttar Pradesh Power Corporation for energy efficiency and agricultural demand side management programme.
  • Yes Bank has entered into partnership with Karim Nagar and Warangal smart cities in Telangana to launch an industry-first Collaboration-as-a-Service platform to address urban development challenges.
News Analysis