Javeri Fiscal Services Ltd. Daily Newsletter
NSE Intra-day chart (22 March 2016)
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Market Commentary 23 March 2016
Markets to get soft-to-cautious start on sluggish global cues

 

After remaining on subdued note for most part of the session, Indian benchmark indices entered into positive territory in the dying hours of trade and managed to extend the winning momentum for the third consecutive day, as hopes of aggressive rate cuts by central bank offset both profit-taking and global uncertainty after two explosions tore through Brussels airport on Tuesday morning killing 13 people. Sentiments got some support with the report that India's current account deficit, the excess of imports over exports, fell further to 1.3% of the gross domestic product due to benefits of lower commodity prices, but the fall in remittances from overseas Indians restricted the improvement in balance of payments (BoP). Market participants turned optimistic with rating agency ICRA projecting Indian economic growth to improve to 7.7 percent in next fiscal, led by domestic consumption demand on the back of implementation of 7th Pay Commission and OROP recommendations. Some support also came in from reports that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 1,396 crore on March 21, 2016.  However, market participants remained cautious with the report indicating more than 72 per cent of the country has received excess rainfall in March in a phenomenon of unseasonal rains that led to crop losses.  According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), from March 1 to 18, of the 36 sub-divisions, 26 received excess rainfall. Besides, the report that manufacturing activity in the country does not augur well for the economic growth in March and bank credit to domestic export sector suffered due to fall in external demand, also weighed on the sentiment. The yearly SBI Composite Index for March declined below 50 at 49.5, compared with last month index of 51.3. On the global front, Asian equity markets ended mostly in red, while European shares too fell sharply in early trade. Back home, the benchmark got off to a pessimistic start following the Asian peers as sentiments got pressured after hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve officials clouded the country's monetary policy outlook. However, the psychological 7,650 and 25,100 levels proved as strong support levels for the key gauges as the benchmarks soon recovered from the lows. Sustained buying across the board helped the indices climb above the neutral line making it a hat-trick of positive close. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 45.12 points or 0.18% to 25330.49, while the CNX Nifty rose 10.65 points or 0.14% to 7,714.90.

 

The US markets made a mixed closing on Tuesday and while Dow snapped its seven days long gaining streak, its longest in months, the tech heavy Nasdaq surged to a more than two-month closing high. Decline in financial and consumer-staples shares mainly weighed on the main benchmarks, though for most part of the trade markets kept moving in and out of the red as investors wrestled with the fallout from deadly attacks in Belgium that left at least 34 people dead and scores wounded. The news led to an increase in geopolitical concerns, although selling pressure waned not long after the start of trading. Lack of major US economic data also kept some traders on the sidelines ahead of reports on new home sales and durable goods orders in the coming days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 41.30 points or 0.23 percent to 17,582.57 and the S&P 500 edged down 1.80 points or 0.1 percent to 2,049.80. On the other hand, Nasdaq climbed 12.79 points or 0.27 percent to 4,821.66

 

 

Crude oil futures went through a volatile trade and closed modestly lower on Tuesday, as traders digested news of an apparent terrorist attack in the Belgian capital of Brussels. Two explosions occurred at the Zaventem airport just outside the city and were followed by an explosion at a downtown subway station near the European quarter. Prices also came under pressure after a Libyan OPEC delegate said it does not plan to attend next month's production freeze meeting in Doha. The delegate added that Libya wants to increase output when the situation allows. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery plunged by $0.46 or 0.07 percent to $41.456 a barrel after trading in a range of $41.90 and $40.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for May delivery closed at $41.27, down $0.27 or 0.65 percent on the ICE.

 

Extending its weakness for the second straight day, Indian rupee depreciated against dollar on Tuesday on increased dollar demand from importers and banks. Further, as the greenback rebounded versus most Asian currencies as two US Federal Reserve officials supported the case for a hike in interest rates sooner rather than later, too supported rupee. The domestic currency was weaker from the very beginning. Besides the weak trend in the domestic equity market which somehow managed a positive close too hit the rupee sentiment. Sentiments remained subdued with the report that manufacturing activity in the country does not augur well for the economic growth in March and bank credit to domestic export sector has suffered due to fall in external demand. On the global front, euro declines against the U.S. dollar following several explosions in Brussels targeting the city's airport and subway network. Finally, the rupee ended at 66.72, 19 paise weaker from its previous close of 66.53 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity and in debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4830.00 crore against gross selling of Rs 3349.93 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1487.28   crore with gross sales of Rs 601.88 crore.         

 

The US markets made a mixed closing in last session, despite recovering from the early lows. The major averages kept bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line throughout the day after the news broke out of a terrorist attack in the Belgian capital of Brussels. The Asian markets have made mostly a lower start tailing the US markets and on decline in the crude prices. The Japanese market too was marginally in red despite the yen trying a rebound after its three-day drop. The Indian markets managed to extend their gaining streak in last session, supported by some late hour buying. Today, the start of the last trading day of the week is likely to remain cautious tailing the sluggishness in the global markets, after deadly terror attacks in Brussels and traders will also be trying to remain on sideline ahead of the long weekend. Meanwhile, NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya has said that in order to create jobs on a large scale, India should emerge as an attractive destination for big manufacturing firms that are moving out China because of rising wages and demographic transition. There will be some buzz in the electronic segment, as Communications and IT Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad has said that total investments in electronics manufacturing sector in India has crossed Rs 1.28 lakh crore. Prasad also said that India is fast adopting technology and the country is likely to have half a billion Internet users by the end of this year. The oil & gas sector too will be in action as the Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan has said that state-run oil and gas companies are planning to create a venture capital fund to encourage start-ups to develop new business models and infuse innovation into India`s hydrocarbons sector. He said that the time had come to change the marketing strategy from liquid fuels to gas and encourage new business models in the sector to promote innovation and create infrastructure.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

7714.90

7663.07

7747.47

BSE Sensex

25330.49

25149.02

25446.65

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

Vedanta

201.53

96.20

94.08

97.73

SBI

167.29

197.50

195.25

199.00

BHEL

147.25

116.70

113.63

118.53

Hindalco

128.01

87.00

85.23

88.38

ITC

126.99

323.15

320.00

328.55

 

  • Maruti Suzuki India, India's leading passenger vehicle maker, will start deliveries of its newly launched compact urban SUV, Vitara Brezza, to customers from 25th March 2016.
  • Mahindra & Mahindra's Agri Business vertical has launched its branded dairy products 'Saboro'.
  • Reliance Industries has entered into a brand alliance with Coimbatore-based sewing threads leader 'Precot Meridian', for co-branding for polyester sewing thread yarn range.
  • ICICI Bank, the country's largest private sector bank, has opened its new branch at DLW Road in Varanasi.
  • The country's largest lender, State Bank of India, has raised Rs 500 crore from issue of bonds on a private placement basis.
News Analysis