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NSE Intra-day chart (21 December 2017)
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Market Commentary 22 December 2017
Markets to make a flat-to-cautious start


Extending their consolidation mood for second straight session, Indian equity benchmarks ended the choppy day of trade slightly in red amid weak global cues. Markets altered between green and red throughout the session and profit booking in dying hour of trade dragged markets tad below the neutral lines. Traders also remained concerned with the details of the minutes of the MPC meeting held on December 5 and 6 released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), where RBI Governor Urjit Patel flagged concerns over rising global oil prices and uncertainties on fiscal and external fronts. Two other members in the panel, Deputy Governor Viral Acharya and Executive Director Michael Debabrata Patra, flagged the issue of inflation in petroleum products. Sentiments also remained down-beat with private report stating the RBI's policy rates are likely to remain unchanged in 2018 despite higher inflation, a recovering growth, and elevated oil prices.  Meanwhile,  the special CBI court pronounce the judgment in the 2G scam, which rocked the telecom sector some years ago and played a major part in cementing the UPA government's reputation of being corrupt. The court acquitted all accuses including former telecom minister A Raja acquitted in 2G case. However, losses remained capped with traders getting some solace with the Union Cabinet approving the Consumer Protection Bill, 2017, paving the way for its introduction in Parliament. Once approved by Parliament, the new law will replace the current Consumer Protection Act, 1986. Some support also came with Chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) Bibek Debroy's statement that India is expected to be a $6.5-7 trillion economy by 2030, and at the current exchange rate it would touch $10 trillion by 2035-40. Finally, the BSE Sensex slipped 21.10 points or 0.06% to 33,756.28, while the CNX Nifty was down by 3.90 points or 0.04% to 10,440.30.

 

The US markets closed higher on Thursday, with energy stocks helping major indexes to end just points away from record territory. The latest economic data, which pointed to slight slowing from strong previous readings, further supported the market. The US economy's pace of growth in the third quarter was lowered slightly to a 3.2% annual rate from 3.3% under the government's final revision to gross domestic product. The economy expanded at a 3.1% rate in the second quarter. The core personal consumption expenditure index, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation was softer than previously estimated, rising at a 1.3% rate down from 1.4%. The downgrade in GDP reflected slightly less consumer spending in the July-September quarter than previously estimated. Consumer spending was revised down a tick to a still solid 2.2% rate.  Meanwhile, initial US jobless claims, a tool to measure layoffs, rose by 20,000 to 245,000 in the week ended December 16. The more stable monthly average of claims increased by 1,250 and stood at 236,000. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 55.64 points or 0.23 percent to 24,782.29, the Nasdaq gained 4.402 points or 0.06 percent to 6,965.36, and the S&P 500 edged higher by 5.32 points or 0.20 percent to 2,684.57.

 

Crude oil futures extended their gains on Friday, as investors continued to cheer mostly positive EIA inventory data. U.S. oil inventories have been declining for four weeks despite robust production. However, the upside especially of Brent crude were capped on report Forties pipeline could restart as soon as January. Ineos, operator of the Forties pipeline, which had been on outage since Dec. 11, said it expected the pipeline to resume operations in early January. Benchmark crude oil futures for January delivery ended higher by $0.27 or 0.5 percent at $58.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for February delivery was up by $0.35 to $64.91 a barrel on the ICE.

 

 

Indian rupee pared some of early gains to end marginally stronger against dollar on Thursday, due to some dollar demand from importers and corporates. Investors took support with Chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) Bibek Debroy's statement that India is expected to be a $6.5-7 trillion economy by 2030, and at the current exchange rate it would touch $10 trillion by 2035-40. However, gains were capped as traders remained concerned with the details of the minutes of the MPC meeting held on December 5 and 6 released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), where RBI Governor Urjit Patel flagged concerns over rising global oil prices and uncertainties on fiscal and external fronts. On the global front, dollar hit a nine-day high against yen on Thursday, after comments by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reinforced expectations that the BOJ was in no hurry to move away from its ultra-loose monetary policy. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.06, 5 paise stronger from its previous close of 64.11 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4844.47 crore against gross selling of Rs 6290.73 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 914.44 crore with gross sales of Rs 1194.64 crore.

 

The US markets though managed a modestly positive close but ended the last session off their highs. Optimism about the economic impact of the Republican tax reform bill contributed to the strength but the buying interest was somewhat subdued. The Asian markets have made mostly a positive start, though the Japanese stock market is flat in choppy trade on Friday despite the positive lead from Wall Street. The Indian markets remained in consolidation mood and ended lower for the second straight day in last session. Today, the start is likely to be flat on cautious cues from the global markets. Traders will be concerned with an IMF report that India's financial sector is facing considerable challenges with high non-performing assets and slow deleveraging and repair of corporate balance sheets testing the resilience of the banking system and holding back growth. However, the Reserve Bank of India in its latest edition of the Financial Stability Report has noted that while the stress in the banking sector remains elevated, it appears to be bottoming out. Also, there will be some support with Chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) Bibek Debroy's statement that India is expected to be a $ 6.5-7 trillion economy by 2030, and at the current exchange rate it would touch $ 10 trillion by 2035-40. He said that India will be remarkably different country as the size of its economy will enhance the country's role in global affairs. The 2G spectrum case related stocks will continue buzzing after the special CBI court acquitted all 18 accused including A Raja and K Kanimozhi in 2G spectrum allocation case.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10440.30

10420.15

10467.20

BSE Sensex

33756.28

33689.06

33842.25

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

Hindalco

137.71

263.30

260.42

265.42

SBI

99.16

316.75

315.37

318.17

ICICI Bank

97.06

315.45

312.85

317.30

Vedanta

80.13

317.15

313.67

320.47

Yes Bank

71.31

310.45

308.58

313.13

 
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News Analysis