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NSE Intra-day chart (20 July 2016)
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Market Commentary 21 July 2016
Markets to remain in positive mood on sanguine global cues

 

Indian benchmarks carried forward their northbound journey for yet another session on Wednesday, on account of buying in frontline blue chip counters amid firm European cues. Sentiments remained buoyant with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley urging the Rajya Sabha to pass the GST bill expeditiously to enable states get a share of the Service Tax which is not shared under the provisions of 14th Finance Commission. GST, which aims to simplify indirect tax regime, will be a 'game-changer' for the country and its implementation is likely to take place from April next year.  Some support also came with Union Minister Nitin Gadkari's statement that US companies consider India their next FDI frontier and are keen to pump in billions of dollars into the country's infrastructure and transportation sector. Acknowledging that India's infrastructure sector is lagging behind and it has a long way to go to match the international standards, Gadkari said that the modernization and upgradation of the transport infrastructure has the potential to become driver of the country's growth. However, the upside remained capped with the report that International Monetary Fund trimmed India's growth forecast for the current and next financial years by 0.1 percentage points as it pared global growth by an identical amount. Weak trend in Asian stocks coupled with depreciation in rupee value against the US dollar too weighed down sentiments. Meanwhile,  telecom stocks like Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular edged lower after the DoT began sending out notices to the country's top six mobile operators, who have been charged by the Comptroller and Auditor General of under-reporting their adjusted gross revenue by Rs 46,045.75 crore for the period 2006-07 to 2009-10. On the global front, Asian markets ended in red on Wednesday as investors reassessed the global economy following the International Monetary Bank's global growth cut. Back home, the benchmark got off to an optimistic start, shrugging the sluggish sentiments prevailing in Asian markets. The frontline indices soon gathered momentum and traded with around quarter percent gains through the morning session of trade. Second half of the session saw the key gauges capitalize on the momentum further and spurt to session's highest levels in dying hour. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged by 128.27 points or 0.46% to 27915.89, while the CNX Nifty rose by 35.25 points or 0.41% to 8,563.80.

                                               

The US markets closed higher on Wednesday, buoyed by a surge in tech stocks after a flurry of corporate earnings beat lowered expectations. The S&P 500 made its sixth record close in eight sessions, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average made its seventh record close in as many sessions. In the absence of US economic data, quarterly earnings dominated the headlines. Risk appetite also got a boost from oil futures, which settled up, erasing earlier losses following a decline in domestic crude supplies. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecasts for global economic growth this year and next as the unexpected UK vote to leave the European Union creates a wave of uncertainty amid already-fragile business and consumer confidence. According to the report, the global economy is projected to expand 3.1 percent this year and 3.4 percent in 2017. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up by 36.02 points or 0.19 percent to 18,595.03, Nasdaq added 53.56 points or 1.06 percent to 5,089.93 while, S&P 500 gained 9.24 points or 0.43 percent to 2,173.02. 

 

Crude oil futures gained modestly on Wednesday, recovering from the fresh two-year lows reached in early session. Prices moved up on report of larger than expected draw in U.S. stockpiles and a considerable increase in gasoline inventories last week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report that commercial crude inventories declined by 2.342 million barrels for the week ending on July 15. Meanwhile, US production rose moderately by 9,000 last week to 8.494 million barrels per day. Benchmark crude oil futures for September delivery was up $0.25 or 0.55 percent to close at $45.70 a barrel after trading in a range of $44.55 and $46.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent oil futures for September delivery gained $0.49 or 1.05 percent to $47.15 a barrel on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee depreciated against dollar on Wednesday due to increased demand for American currency from importers and banks. Besides, dollar gains against other currencies overseas too hit the rupee sentiment. Further, International Monetary Fund trimmed India's growth forecast for the current and next financial years by 0.1 percentage points as it pared global growth by an identical amount that too dampened rupee sentiment. On the global front, the euro fell to a three-week low against the dollar as investors braced for the European Central Bank's meeting Thursday amid speculation policy makers will signal further stimulus to counter fallout from Britain's vote to leave the European Union. Finally, the rupee ended 67.18, 7 paise weaker from its previous close at 67.11 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both.In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4384.23 crore against gross sell of Rs 3672.99 crore. While in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 948.04 crore with gross sales of Rs 436.73 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 511.31 crore in debt.

 

The US markets ended higher in last session on getting some upbeat earnings from big-name companies such as Microsoft and Morgan Stanley, with Dow and the S&P 500 surging to new record highs. The Asian markets have made mostly a positive start, with some indices rising to 2016 highs tailing positive cue from the US markets and amid signs regional policy makers are preparing to unleash stimulus at a time when corporate earnings are proving more resilient. The Indian markets despite volatility extended their gains in last session. Today, the start is likely to be in green on positive global cues and traders will be getting some support with government expressing hope that the Rajya Sabha will clear the indirect tax reform in the first week of August on the back of support from regional parties. The Minister of State for Finance Arjun Ram Meghwal has said that the Congress' demand for capping the GST rate in Constitution is "not very practical", but the Government is making a lot of effort to build consensus on the Goods and Services Tax. The IT sector that has been sulking with some weak earnings, is likely to see some recovery with Nasscom, the industry body stating that it didn't see any reason to cut its growth forecast of 10-12 per cent for FY2017 even as big IT firms continued to disappoint in June quarter. The industry body sees no threat to the demand outlook for the industry. There will be some buzz in the food chains and companies engaged in food services on a National Restaurant Association of India (NRAI) report that sound macro-economic performance will in turn help the food services sector become a key part of the economy. Steel stocks too may see some action on report that the government under pressure from exporting countries and Indian small scale industries is planning to prune the list of steel products covered by the Minimum Import Price. There will be lots of earnings reactions too, to keep the markets buzzing.

 

                          Support and Resistance: CNX Nifty and BSE Sensex

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

8565.85

8528.97

8586.32

BSE Sensex

27,915.89

27805.34

27980.81

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

State Bank of India

180.52

231.15

229.32

232.87

Hindalco

118.98

135.90

133.70

138.70

Wipro

95.21

538.85

524.15

547.40

ITC

93.13

250.25

248.13

252.18

ICICI Bank

71.75

267.50

265.90

268.65

 

  • ACC, one of the country's leading cement producers, has commenced commercial production at its new state-of-the-art 2.79 MTPA Clinker Facility at Jamul, located in Chhattisgarh State with effect from July 19, 2016.
  • Tata Power's JV - Maithon Power has been granted NABL accreditation for its chemical laboratory under accreditation certificate no 'T-4038'.
  • Bharat Heavy Electricals has successfully commissioned the third unit of the 4x40 MW Teesta Low Dam, Hydro Electric Project Stage-IV in West Bengal.
  • Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone has raised Rs 1000 crore by allotting non-convertible debentures on private placement basis.
  • HDFC Bank has entered into a tie-up with budget hotels brand OYO Rooms for its mobile payment application PayZapp to make the transactions for booking hotels on its platform.
News Analysis