Javeri Fiscal Services Ltd. Daily Newsletter
NSE Intra-day chart (18 April 2016)
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Market Commentary 20 April 2016
Markets to make positive start tailing regional cues

 

Indian equity Benchmarks showcased yet another courageous performance and went on to outclass indices around the world, by vivaciously rallying around a percent in the session and settling above the psychological 7,900 (Nifty) and 25,800 (Sensex) levels. Investors continued building hefty across the board positions as sentiments got a boost after India's wholesale prices Index (WPI) fell for the 17th straight month in March, with the WPI-based inflation declining 0.85% from a year ago on the back of falling prices of manufactured products. In February, the index was down 0.91%, while in March 2015 it had fallen 2.33%.  Investors' morale was also boosted with Infosys, India's second-largest information technology (IT) services firm forecasting strong revenue growth of 11.5%-13.5% in constant currency in the current fiscal (FY17). In dollar terms, the company expects revenue to grow between 11.8% and 13.8% for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2017. Besides, good gain in ITC stocks post the company's decision to resume manufacturing of cigarettes at its factories soon following a favourable high court order too aided the sentiment. Meanwhile, shares of aviation and state-owned oil marketing companies surged after global crude oil prices eased after talks between the OPEC and non-OPEC producers to freeze oil output remained inconclusive. On the flip sides, PSU Banks came under pressure after ratings agency Moody's said asset quality of the 11 rated PSU banks may face further stress as restructured loans may eventually turn into NPAs. On the global front, tumbling crude oil prices dragged down most of the Asian markets on Monday, Europe's stock markets too sank at the start of trade. Back home, after getting gap up start, Indian benchmark indices slipped into negative territory in early trade, tracking weakness in the other regional markets amid sharp decline in the oil prices. But the frontline indices slowly but steadily continued gathering steam. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 189.61 points or 0.74% to 25816.36, while the CNX Nifty rose 64.25 points or 0.82% to 7,914.70. Indian markets remained closed on Tuesday on account of a local holiday.

 

The US markets made a mixed closing on Tuesday, with the Dow climbed to its best closing level since last July, while the S&P 500 rose to a nearly five-month closing high. There were some upbeat earnings and rebound in crude that supported the markets to recover from the early decline. The early decline were induced by disappointing economic data from the Commerce Department released  report before the start of trading, showing a sharp pullback in housing starts in the month of March. The report said housing starts tumbled by 8.8 percent to an annual rate of 1.089 million in March after jumping by 6.9 percent to a revised 1.194 million in February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 49.44 points or 0.30 percent to 18,053.60, the Nasdaq lost 19.69 points or 0.40 percent to 4,940.33 and the S&P 500 ended up by 6.46 points or 0.30 percent to 2,100.80.

 

Crude oil futures rebounded and surged to fresh yearly-highs, erasing all of their losses from a failed accord in Qatar over the weekend. The gains were due to a labor stoppage in Kuwait where thousands of workers struck for a third consecutive day while railing for public sector pay reforms. The Iran deputy oil minister Rokneddin Javadi meanwhile told that he expects output to return to pre-sanction levels from 2011 by sometime in late-June. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery surged by $1.19 or 2.89 percent to $42.38, after trading in a range of $40.89 and $42.88 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for June delivery ended at $44.05, up $1.14 or 2.66 percent on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee ended stronger against dollar on Monday due to selling of American currency by banks and exporters, amid mixed cues from Asian currency markets. Besides, rupee got support with the smart rally in the domestic equity market. Rupee recouped its early losses to end stronger. Some support came after India's wholesale prices Index (WPI) fell for the 17th straight month in March, with the WPI-based inflation declining 0.85% from a year ago on the back of falling prices of manufactured products. On the global front, yen was higher against rival currencies on Monday after major oil producers failed to reach a deal to curb production, prompting investors to rush into the Japanese currency. Finally, the rupee ended at 66.55, 9 paise stronger from its previous close of 66.64 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4996.80 crore against gross selling of Rs 4255.76 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1646.06 crore with gross sales of Rs 1256.51 crore.          

 

The US markets made a mixed closing in last session reacting to the earnings announcements, while Goldman Sachs, UnitedHealth, and Johnson & Johnson reported better than expected first quarter earnings, slump in shares of large-cap tech firms led by International Business Machines Corp. canceled out positive sentiment. The Asian markets have made mostly a positive start, with some indices surging to four months high taking cues from the biggest jump in commodities prices since August. The Indian markets surged in last session before going for a break, both the major indices gained around a percent, continuing their bullrun. Today, the start is likely to be in green tailing the gains in other regional counterparts, though there will be some cautiousness too, as the traders will be reacting to the export data, where declining for 16th straight month in March, exports contracted by 5.47 percent to $22.71 billion as shipments of petroleum and engineering products shrunk sharply due to tepid global demand. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has said that the global economic situation is grim and worrisome and that has prompted the nations to put up firewalls around their own systems to save themselves from the slowdown and grow within the limitations. Though, he also said that compared to the rest of the world, the Indian economy was growing much faster. The power sector stocks will be in action as a high-level panel has suggested for real-time trading of power and making energy exchanges more flexible to facilitate integration of renewable energy with the electricity grid.  There will be lots of earnings announcements too, to keep the markets buzzing, the prominent being Wipro, Network 18, Infomedia, Jay Bharat Maruti etc.

   

Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

7914.70

7864.77

7942.62

BSE Sensex

25816.36

25676.98

25912.89

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

ICICI Bank

159.38

237.15

233.18

242.53

SBI

139.85

186.75

184.40

190.30

Infosys

125.08

1238.70

1225.50

1259.90

Hindalco

115.27

97.05

95.17

98.27

ITC

94.66

335.4

331.52

338.82

 

  • Reliance Industries is planning to shut down one crude distillation unit for routine Maintenance & Inspection activities from May 01, 2016, for about 3 weeks.
  • Gail India, the country's biggest gas transporter, is planning to deploy drones on pilot basis on its main trunk pipeline as part of higher safety measures.
  • ICICI Bank has increased its holding in the debt-laden IVRCL to 11.43% by acquiring a fresh 39.91 million shares.
  • State Bank of India is planning to tap the wholesale bond market and change its mix of resources.
  • Tata Consultancy Services, India's biggest software services exporter has posted a 64 per cent rise in the fourth quarter net profit.
News Analysis