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NSE Intra-day chart (14 September 2020)
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Market Commentary 15 September 2020
Benchmarks to open marginally in green amid positive global cues

 

Erasing all of their intra-day gains, Indian equity benchmarks ended in the negative territory on Monday as telecom, banking, finance and energy shares came under selling pressure. The broader markets, however, outperformed after market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) tweaked the asset allocation norms for Multi-Cap Funds. According to the new norms, multi-cap funds must invest 25 percent each in small, mid, and large-cap stocks. The benchmarks made an optimistic start and traded on a strong note for most part of the day, as sentiments got a boost as Chief Economic Adviser K V Subramanian exuded confidence that retail inflation will come down in the days ahead with the easing of lockdowns, attributing the rise in inflation to supply-side frictions. Some support also came in as the finance ministry said banks have sanctioned loans worth over Rs 1.63 lakh crore to more than 42 lakh business units under the Rs 3-lakh crore Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) for the MSME sector. However, local indices failed to carry forward positive momentum in late trade and ended with marginal losses, as traders got anxious with CARE Ratings' report that India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to see a sharper contraction of 8-8.2 percent in the current financial year (FY21) under the assumption of there being no fiscal stimulus from the government. It said this would imply that there would be no increase in capital expenditure (capex) during the year beyond what is provided in the Budget. Some cautiousness also came as India's industrial output contracted 10.4 percent in July as against a 4.9 percent growth year-on-year (YoY). Traders may be concerned as rating agency Moody's projected India's real gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by 11.5 percent in FY21. Besides, India's inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) surged 0.16% in the month of August, 2020 (over August, 2019) as compared to 1.17% during the corresponding month of the previous year. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 97.92 points or 0.25% to 38,756.63, while the CNX Nifty was down by 24.40 points or 0.21% to 11,440.05.

 

The US markets ended higher on Monday amid fresh hope for a coronavirus vaccine, a flurry of initial public offerings and potential corporate mash-ups, including reports that Oracle plans to forge a partnership with TikTok, the popular China-based social-media platform. An agreement to link up TikTok with a US company comes amid rising tensions between America and China, with President Donald Trump threatening repeatedly to shut down TikTok in the US if it isn't sold to an American company by September 15. The rally on markets partly reflected a rebound by technology stocks, which recovered after leading the markets lower last week. The significant advance by the Nasdaq comes after the tech-heavy index plunged by 4.1 percent last week in its worst week since March. Apple (AAPL) has been a key driver of the markets in recent sessions and advanced by 3 percent after ending the previous session at its lowest closing level in a month. Shares of Nvidia also saw considerable strength after the graphics chip maker announced a $40 billion acquisition of chip designer Arm Holdings.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Monday as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) further reduced its outlook for demand growth, as well as the potential for more oil from Libya. OPEC, in its monthly report, said it now expects 2020 oil demand to contract by 9.5 million barrels a day to 90.2 million barrels a day, versus its previous call for a 9.1 million barrel-a-day fall. It also lowered its outlook for demand growth in 2021, citing the lingering effects of the coronavirus. Crude oil futures for October fell 9 cents or 0.2 percent to settle at $37.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. November Brent crude declined 22 cents or 0.6 percent to settle at $39.61 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended higher against dollar on Monday, owing to dollar sale by exporters and banks. Sentiments remained upbeat despite Moody's Investors Service in its latest report has projected that India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate to contract 11.5% for the financial year 2020-21 (FY21), from (-) 4% estimated earlier. Meanwhile; India's inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) surged 0.16% in the month of August, 2020 (over August, 2019) as compared to 1.17% during the corresponding month of the previous year. On the global front; dollar retreated on Monday against major peers as a wave of M&A deals lifted the mood on global equity markets and investors looked ahead to an event-packed week which includes a Fed meeting and the appointment of a new Japanese premier. Finally, the rupee ended at 73.48, 5 paise stronger from its previous close of 73.53 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyer in equity, while they were net seller in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6763.50 crore against gross selling of Rs 4305.73 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 386.08 crore with gross sales of Rs 799.35 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 19.18 crore against gross selling of Rs 24.92 crore.

 

The US markets ended notably higher on Monday as signs of progress in developing a covid-19 vaccine and a spurt of multibillion-dollar deals lifted investor optimism. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Tuesday as investors focused on the outcome of a Federal Reserve meeting for clues on monetary policy as economies recover from the pandemic. Indian markets ended lower on Monday, after a volatile session, dragged by financials and heavyweights RIL and Bharti Airtel. Today, the start of session is likely to be flat to positive tracking gains in global peers. Traders will be taking encouragement with the government data showing that India's consumer inflation in August came at 6.69%, slightly lower than 6.73% recorded in the previous month. Some support will come with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) report that bank credit grew 5.49 percent to Rs 102.11 lakh crore, while deposits increased 10.92 percent to Rs 141.76 lakh crore in the fortnight ended August 28. Market participants may take note of SBI's report that the country needs to adopt an activist fiscal policy rather than depending on the monetary accommodation alone for turning the economic fortunes. However, there may be some cautiousness as S&P Global Ratings cut India's FY21 GDP forecast to -9 percent from -5 percent as it believes that rising COVID-19 cases in the country will keep private spending and investment lower for longer. Also, investors may be concerned with over 81,000 new cases, India's coronavirus tally has reached 4,926,914. The death toll has risen by 1,073 to 80,827. Meanwhile, the government has banned the export of all varieties of onions with immediate effect, a move aimed at increasing availability and checking price of the commodity in the domestic market. Banking stocks will be in focus with report that banks' non-performing assets in large industry and services declined 31 percent in over two years to about Rs 4.36 lakh crore in June this year.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

11,440.05

11,359.44

11,544.79

BSE Sensex

38,756.63

38,476.48

39,133.47

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

 

Support  (Rs)

 

Resistance (Rs)

 

(in Lacs)

Tata Motors

845.06

148.55

145.66

151.26

State Bank of India

636.07

198.50

195.16

204.01

Bharti Airtel

520.56

474.10

462.51

491.46

Wipro

380.90

307.20

297.39

312.79

HCL Technologies

323.12

794.95

751.04

831.99

 

  • HCL Technologies is expecting its revenue and operating margin for Q2FY21 to be meaningfully better than the top end of its previous forecast. 
  • Infosys has entered into definitive agreement to acquire GuideVision, one of the largest ServiceNow Elite Partners in Europe. 
  • Larsen & Toubro's construction arm -- L&T construction has secured orders from prestigious clients for its varied businesses. 
  • Wipro has entered into partnership with and ProcessMaker for delivering innovative workflow management to Wipro's customers in Latin America.
News Analysis