Javeri Fiscal Services Ltd. Daily Newsletter
NSE Intra-day chart (14 January 2016)
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Market Commentary 15 January 2016
Markets to make a green start on positive global cues


It turned out to be a lackadaisical performance from the benchmark indices on Thursday as they failed to snap the session in the green territory and settled below the neutral line. Sustained selling by funds amid a weak trend in global markets following overnight sell-off in US markets on renewed jitters about the world's top economy and broader concerns about global growth dampened the domestic sentiment. The NSE's 50-share broadly followed index - Nifty settled with losses of twenty five points below the psychological 7,550 levels while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index - Sensex shed eighty one points and closed below the psychological 24,800 mark. Sentiments weakened further with a key macro-economic data showing acceleration in inflation trends. The rise in wholesale price index (WPI) diminished hopes of a rate cut by the country's apex bank and subdued investors' sentiments. However, losses remained capped with the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that the economy is moving in the right direction and the pace of growth will gather momentum in the coming quarters on the back of on-going structural reforms. Earlier on the Dalal Street, the benchmarks got off to a sedate opening tracking the dismal leads prevailing in Asian markets following a massive sell-off on Wall Street overnight amid the relentless slide in oil prices and concerns over growth as the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book survey of economic conditions pointed to more sluggish US economic growth. After the subdued opening, the key gauges plunged to lowest point in the day on sharp across the board sell-off. Thereafter started the road to recovery for the bourses which kept slowly but steadily moving towards the neutral line. The frontline indices even managed to break into the positive terrain in mid noon trades but only for a brief period, on account of better-than-expected third quarter earnings from Infosys. But some final hour profit booking followed by mild short covering ensured that the key gauges to end the session on consolidated note. Finally, the BSE Sensex declined by 81.14 points or 0.33% to 24772.97, while the CNX Nifty lost 25.60 points or 0.34% to 7,536.80.

 

The US markets made a good bounce back and ended sharply higher on Thursday, though there was some late hour profit taking, but the major averages pulling back off their best levels remained firmly positive by the end. The gains were partly due to an increase by the price of crude oil, which bounced further off the twelve-year closing low and some positive earnings announcements. However, on economic front, the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims unexpectedly increased in the week ended January 9th. The initial jobless claims climbed to 284,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 277,000. A separate Labor Department report showed a significant drop in U.S. import prices in the month of December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 227.64 points or 1.41 percent to 16,379.05, the Nasdaq gained 88.94 points or 1.96 percent to 4,615.00 and the S&P 500 ended higher by 31.56 points or 1.67 percent at 1,921.84.

 

Crude oil futures turned higher on Thursday, slowing massive week-long rout, as some weak US economic data raised hopes the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates ultra-low for the time being. US initial jobless claims for the first full week of January rose by 7,000 and the four-week moving average of jobless claims was at its highest since July. Though, energy traders were also keeping a close eye on geopolitical issues after militants from the Islamic State claimed responsibility for attacks in the heart of Jakarta on Thursday. Benchmark crude oil futures for February delivery was up $0.72 or 2.4 percent to close at $102.20 a barrel after trading in a range of $30.29 and $31.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent oil futures for March delivery ended up by $0.79 or 2.62 percent to $30.97 a barrel on the ICE.

 

India rupee ended substantially weaker against dollar on Thursday, mainly due to strong demand for the American unit from importers and banks. The domestic currency fell below the crucial 67-mark, tracking the sustained strength of the US dollar against its basket of emerging market currencies and weakness in the Indian and global markets. The fall in the rupee to its weakest since September 2013 has left investors unruffled as they believe the country's sturdier economy and central bank interventions will allow the currency to navigate a difficult global environment. Finally, the rupee ended at 67.29, 44 paise weaker from its previous close of 66.85 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyers in equity and in debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4331.45 crore against gross selling of Rs 4049.00 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 909.21 crore with gross sales of Rs 706.53 crore.     

 

The US markets ended higher in last session, erasing most of their previous day losses, amid a major rebound in oil prices and indications that the Federal Reserve could delay the pace of its first tightening cycle in nearly a decade. The Asian markets have made a positive start, tailing the rally on Wall Street overnight and a bounce in oil prices. The Indian markets declined further in last session after a very choppy trade, all the good work done by Infosys numbers were washed out with a negative opening of European markets. Today the start is likely to be in green and some recovery can be seen in early hours, however there will be cautiousness too with fears of early gains not sustaining long. Also, as United Nations has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for India for 2016 to 7.5 percent from 8.2 percent estimated earlier, largely due to slow progress in implementing reform policies. The impact of Infosys numbers, which had beaten street expectations for the third consecutive quarter, after a lacklustre performance for six straight quarters, is likely to be seen on the IT pack. There will be some buzz in the auto sector after major automobile manufacturers assured the government that they will produce BS-VI fuel compliant vehicles of new models from April 2020, but demanded that the government unveil a scrapping policy to phase out old vehicles. Retail stocks too may see some upmove with the CII-BCG report stating that India's retail market has the potential to grow from $ 630 billion in 2015 to $ 1,100-1,200 billion in 2020 on the back of rising income levels and increased urbanization.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

7536.80

7452.13

7613.13

BSE Sensex

24772.97

24491.31

25036.55

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

SBI

202.57

196.05

193.07

200.27

Vedanta

177.8

79.35

77.05

82.20

Infosys

151.14

1133.00

1073.23

1173.88

ICICI Bank

132.73

235.75

231.77

239.77

Axis Bank

117.77

390.60

385.57

398.82

  • Idea Cellular has launched its high speed 4G LTE services across four more states in India which includes Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Punjab.
  • Maruti Suzuki India is now offering a driver airbag as an option for all variants of Alto 800 and Alto K10.
  • Infosys has registered a rise of 4.19% in its net profit at Rs 3183 crore in Q3FY15 as compared to Rs 3055 crore in the corresponding quarter previous year.
  • State Bank of India, country's largest public sector lender, has opened its first branch in Seoul, South Korea.
  • Power Grid Corporation of India has received seven investment proposals worth Rs 2,510.34 crore.
News Analysis