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NSE Intra-day chart (09 June 2017)
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Market Commentary 12 June 2017
Markets to make a soft start; IIP and CPI data eyed


Recovering from day's lows, Indian benchmark indices completed the last day of the week on optimistic note, as investors showed huge buying interests in Realty, Metal and Auto counters. Sentiments got a boost after Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council constituted 18 sectoral groups like telecom, textiles, gems and jewellery, e-commerce and mining, constituting officers both from the Centre and states to address sector-specific issues and assist in smooth roll-out of the new indirect tax regime from July 1, 2017. Some support also came with UN trade report that despite stagnant foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow of $44 billion in 2016, India will most likely remain most favoured destination due to its attractiveness among MNCs for cross-border mergers and acquisitions. Besides, India Met Department (IMD) has said that a low-pressure area would form in the Bay of Bengal in the next two days, boosting prospects of accelerated progress of the monsoon, also supported the sentiments. However, global market sentiment took a hit after UK elections left no single party with a clear claim to power ahead of talks to exit the European Union (EU), sideswipe investors who had already weathered major risk events in the United States (US). Further, market participants also remained anxious as a survey by the Reserve Bank of India showed that the economy will gradually consolidate growth in the current fiscal. The survey enlightened that real gross domestic product (GDP) and real gross value added (GVA) are expected to grow by 7.4% and 7.2%, respectively, in 2017-18 and consolidate further by 40 basis points (bps) and 50 bps, respectively in the following year. According to the forecasters, retail inflation is expected to gradually rise to 5% by the fourth quarter of 2017-18. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 48.70 points or 0.16 % to 31262.06, while the CNX Nifty was up by 21 points or 0.22% to 9,668.25.

 

After reaching record intraday highs early in the session, US markets gave back some ground over the course of the trading day on Friday, with Dow ending higher, while Nasdaq witnessed sharp pullback, as traders cashed in on some of the recent strength among technology stocks. Sentiments remained dampened with the unexpected outcome of the U.K. elections in which no party gained a clear majority, resulting in a hung parliament. The election backfired on U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May and her Conservative party, who had expected to expand their majority. Traders also remained on the sidelines ahead of ahead to next week's monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve. CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates a 99.6 percent chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by a quarter point next week. With the Fed widely expected to raise rates, traders will pay close attention to the accompanying statement for clues about future rate hikes. Nasdaq declined 113.85 points or 1.80 percent to 6,207.92 and S&P 500 was down by 2.02 points or 0.08 percent to 2,431.77. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 89.44 points or 0.42 percent to 21,271.97.

 

Crude oil futures snapped their losing streak and inched higher on Friday, despite industry figures showing US drillers continued to add rigs last week. A Nigerian oil pipeline leak offset fears that excess Nigerian crude would add to the uptick in global production but gains were limited as investors braced for a rise in Libyan output while the number of active US drilling rigs rose. Meanwhile in the US, oilfield services firm Barker Hughes reported its weekly US rig count rose by 8 to 741. The rig count has risen 21 weeks in a row, the fastest pace on record. Benchmark crude oil futures for July delivery ended higher by $0.19 or 0.4 percent to $45.83 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for July delivery ended up by $ 0.30 to $48.16 on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee ended marginally weaker against dollar on Friday, due to demand for greenback by banks and importers. Sentiments remained dampened with Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) latest survey stating that the Indian economy will gradually consolidate growth in the financial year 2017-18. It also reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) and real gross value added (GVA) are expected to increase by 7.4 percent and 7.2 percent, respectively, in the current fiscal and consolidate further by 40 basis points (bps) and 50 bps, respectively in the next fiscal. Besides, investors remained cautious ahead of key economic data -industrial production (IIP) and consumer price index (CPI) scheduled to be released on Monday. On the global front, pound took a battering on Friday after Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority in elections, potentially disrupting Brexit negotiations. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.25, 4 paise weaker from its previous close of 64.21 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5906.79 crore against gross selling of Rs 3834.14 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 4609.71 crore with gross sales of Rs 1273.07 crore.

 

The US markets made a mixed closing in the last session, while the Nasdaq skidded, Dow climbed to record close. Goldman Sachs warning that rally in tech highfliers may be overextended, led the late hour selloff in tech pack. The Asian markets have made a similar start with some indices trading in red, as the technology companies have tumbled. Investors are also weighing France's parliamentary elections, where the first round showed President Emmanuel Macron's party headed for a majority. The Indian markets gradually recovering from a slow start posted modest gains in last session. Today, the start of the data heavy week is likely to be cautious tailing the sluggishness in the global markets. Also, as the State Bank of India has expressed concern that demonetisation, announced in November 2016, may continue to result in slowing down of the economy, and adversely affect its business. It said that the long-term impact of this move on the Indian economy and the banking sector is uncertain. Though, markets will be reacting to the outcome of GST Council meeting during the weekend which revised rates on 66 items such as pickles, sauces, fruit preserves, insulin, cashew nuts, school bags, colouring books, notebooks, printers, cutlery, agarbattis and cinema tickets, following representations from industry. Also, the Indian forex reserves surged by $2.404 billion to reach life-time high of $ 381.167 billion in the week to June 2 on account of rise in foreign currency assets Meanwhile, traders will be keenly eyeing two key economic indicators - IIP and CPI inflation numbers, which are scheduled for released after the market hours. There will be some buzz in the banking stocks, as the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will meet heads of the PSU banks today to discuss the issue of non-performing assets (NPAs) and steps being taken by them to expedite the recovery of bad loans which have crossed Rs 6 lakh crore.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9668.25

9625.52

9693.62

BSE Sensex

31262.06

31136.23

31338.94

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

Vedanta

209.83

244.75

236.00

249.75

SBI

108.05

288.55

286.43

290.03

ITC

100.65

306.00

302.93

310.83

ICICI Bank

92.64

322.15

317.80

324.80

Hindalco

90.77

202.15

197.97

204.62

  • IndusInd Bank has executed a finance agreement with The Overseas Private Investment Corporation for a $225 million loan for expansion of the bank's MSME lending programs across India.
  • Coal India is planning to close 37 underground mines by the end of FY18, despite unions' plans to strike for three days this month if the decision is not withdrawn.
  • SBI has raised Rs 15,000 crore by selling 52.2 crore shares through qualified institutional placement.
  • Hero MotoCorp has phased out different models and variants in order to realign product portfolio to focus on premium bikes & scooters for future growth.
News Analysis