Javeri Fiscal Services Ltd. Daily Newsletter
NSE Intra-day chart (10 August 2016)
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Market Commentary 11 August 2016
Markets to make a cautious start, may move up in latter trade

 

Wednesday's trading session turned out to be an awful session for the Indian benchmark indices, which crumbled like a ‘house of cards' and went on to breach various key technical levels in the over a percent freefall. Marketmen looked at every rise as opportunity to take profits off the table as there emerged no encouraging factor that could halt the unrelenting selling. The sentiments were also undermined by reports that noted that the gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) of the public sector banks increased Rs 2.16 lakh crore in 2013-14 to Rs 4.76 lakh crore in 2015-16.  The report also said that the top 100 borrowers of public sector banks owe nearly Rs 14 lakh crore to them. Further, traders failed to draw any sense of relief with the report that tax collections have grown up at a robust pace in the first four months of the current fiscal with central excise and personal income tax showing impressive gains. Direct tax collections grew 24% in April-July over corresponding period last year, while indirect taxes were up by 29.9% over the same period.  Meanwhile, the Oil & Gas counter did the maximum damage as Oil prices extended losses in early trade after industry data showed a rise in US crude stockpiles, supporting oversupply concerns. Sugar stocks also came under pressure after the food ministry recommended suspending futures trade in sugar for the time being and imposed stock holding limits on sugar mills. The steps have been taken in view of the upcoming festival season. Further, banking stocks continued their southward journey for the second straight session after Raghuram Rajan at his last monetary policy review meeting as RBI governor hinted upside risks to inflation, while keeping key policy rates unchanged. On the global front, Asian markets ended on a mixed note on Wednesday, while European stocks traded lower in early deals. Back home, the benchmark got off to a somber opening, extending the downtrend for the second straight session as pessimistic sentiments prevailed in global markets. Thereafter, the frontline indices lost the plot and kept tumbling down the hill without any stoppage. Finally, the BSE Sensex slumped by 310.28 points or 1.10% to 27774.88, while the CNX Nifty dropped 102.95 points or 1.19% to 8,575.30.

 

The US markets closed lower on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreating from record levels as the energy sector came under renewed pressure. The main indexes, which opened with small gains, turned lower as crude-oil futures slumped following data on supply and production. Oil futures fell to a one-week low after the US Energy Information Administration reported an increase of crude supplies last week, while Saudi Arabia revealed record crude production in July. Investors have been questioning the equity market's ability to further test record highs as uncertainty about world-wide growth, domestic economic worries, and comparatively weak corporate earnings weigh. On the economy front, the federal government last month recorded the biggest monthly budget deficit since February, and the deficit so far this budget year is running 10 percent higher than a year ago. The deficit came in at $112.8 billion in July, highest since February's $192.6 billion but down from $149.2 billion in July 2015. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 37.39 points or 0.20 percent to 18,495.66, Nasdaq dropped 20.89 points or 0.40 percent to 5,204.59, while S&P 500 was down 6.25 points or 0.29 percent to 2,175.49. 

 

Crude oil futures suffered sharp fall on Wednesday, after the report of an unexpected build in US crude inventories last week. Traders largely overlooked the bullish forecast from OPEC on the potential for increased global demand growth for the remainder of 2016. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report that US commercial crude inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels for the week ending on August 5. Benchmark crude oil futures for September delivery plunged by $1.04 or 2.43 percent to close at $42.66 a barrel after trading in a range of $42.51 and $43.48 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent oil futures for October delivery declined by $0.89 or 1.98 percent to $44.87 a barrel on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee concluded stronger against dollar on Wednesday, on sustained dollar sales by exporters and state run banks. Besides, dollar weakness against other currencies overseas as weak US economic data cast a shadow on the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate increase this year also bolstered sentiment of Indian currency. Domestic currency also got support with the report that tax collections have grown up at a robust pace in the first four months of the current fiscal with central excise and personal income tax showing impressive gains. Direct tax collections grew 24% in April-July over corresponding period last year, while indirect taxes returned a 29.9% increase over the same period. On the global front, yen strengthened against the dollar as investors re-evaluated whether the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year and locked in gains ahead of a Japanese holiday. Finally, the rupee ended at 66.71, stronger by 13 paise from its previous close of 66.84 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5017.76 crore against gross sell of Rs 4696.47 crore. while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2582.23 crore with gross sales of Rs 1188.89 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1393.34 crore in debt.

 

The US markets made another mildly soft ending in last session, amid a steep drop by the price of crude oil. Trading through the day remained subdued lacking major US economic data on the day. The Asian markets have made mostly a lower start, as the crude fell for a third day, after a surprise gain in American stockpiles inflamed concerns about oversupply. The Indian markets suffered sharp cuts in last session and the major averages slipped below their crucial support levels. Today, the start is likely to be cautious but some recovery can be expected after the big fall of last session, and traders will go for value picking. Meanwhile, Commerce and Industry Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said that the full impact of the UK's decision to exit European Union on India may take some time to unfold. She added that the opportunities for India would depend on Great Britain's negotiations of terms of exit with the European Union and their future negotiated trade relations. There will be some action in the textile stocks, as the Lok Sabha passed the Taxation Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2016, relaxing the rules for the textile sector to avail itself of the income tax benefit on additional employment created. On the same time the telecom stocks will be under pressure, as the Department of Telecom has 'suspended' spectrum sharing, trading and liberalisation activities till the provisional results of the upcoming spectrum auction are declared. The broking and non-banking financial companies will be in jubilant mood, with the cabinet approving amendments to the Foreign Exchange Management (Transfer or Issue of Security by the Person Resident Outside India) regulations on NBFCs to this effect. There will be lots of important earnings announcements to keep the markets buzzing.

 

                                Support and Resistance: CNX Nifty and BSE Sensex

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

8575.30

8529.90

8655.40

BSE Sensex

27774.88

27626.57

28033.23

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

Adani Ports

195.10

258.45

247.98

265.08

State Bank of India

162.8

231.50

229.40

235.25

Idea Cellular

146.47

92.95

90.97

96.47

Bank of Baroda

115.04

160.40

156.75

162.65

ICICI Bank

113.89

239.35

236.15

244.55

  • Mahindra & Mahindra has registered 12.37% rise in its net profit at Rs 955.21 crore for the quarter as compared to Rs 850.09 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
  • Bharti Airtel announced a scheme to offer 5 GB additional data for its every post-paid broadband or DTH customer.
  • American conglomerate GE has signed a pact with engineering firm Larsen & Toubro to manufacture subsea equipment for future deep water projects in Krishna-Godavari basin on the eastern coast of India.
  • Tata Steel has inaugurated 'Muskaan, Jamshedpur'- a modern and well equipped creche-cum-day care facility at the Annexe Building of Chummery Guest House.
  • Tata Motors is planning to add an SUV and a premium sedan to its list of new launches to maintain its above industry growth rate in car segment in future.
News Analysis