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NSE Intra-day chart (09 July 2020)
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Market Commentary 10 July 2020
Benchmarks to get negative start amid weak global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks have showcased a strong performance on Thursday, by gaining over a percent in the session and settling above the psychological 10,800 (Nifty) and 36,700 (Sensex) levels. Markets made an optimistic start and stayed in green for whole day, as traders took encouragement as Cabinet approved the development of affordable rental housing complexes (ARHCs) for urban migrants and poor as a sub-scheme under the Pradhan Mantri (PM) Awas Yojana. This initiative was first announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman as part of the Atmanirbhar Bharat package in May. Sentiments remained up-beat with a private report that hiring activities in June remained muted on a year-on-year basis, but registered an increase over the previous month amid nationwide relaxations of coronavirus-induced lockdown norms. Markets extended their northward moment in the last leg of trade, taking support from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement that Indian economy has started seeing green shoots of recovery and that the country remains one of the most open economies in the world. He said that in these times when the world is battling the COVID-19 pandemic, it is natural to talk about revival and there is faith that the story of global revival will have India playing a leading role. Adding to the optimism, Union Cabinet has given its approval to new pan India Central Sector Scheme-Agriculture Infrastructure Fund, in order to provide a medium - long term debt financing facility for investment in viable projects for post-harvest management Infrastructure and community farming assets through interest subvention and financial support. Traders took note of report that the National Association of Software and Services Companies (Nasscom) has launched Nasscom Launchpad in New Jersey, to promote cross border trade through partnerships. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 408.68 points or 1.12% to 36,737.69, while the CNX Nifty was up by 107.70 points or 1.01% to 10,813.45.

 

The US markets ended mostly lower on Thursday as the relentless surge in coronavirus cases across America raised fears of another lockdown in several states and dimmed prospects for a quick economic recovery. Concerns about coronavirus infections in the country rose after more than 60,000 new Covid-19 cases were reported on Wednesday, the biggest increase ever reported by a country in a single day. Florida reported a record increase in hospitalizations. With Covid-19 cases on the rise in 42 states across the United States, investors fear that re-imposition of lockdown measures will significantly weaken recovery chances. On the economic data front, First-time claims for US unemployment benefits declined by more than anticipated in the week ended July 4th, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The report said initial jobless claims tumbled to 1.314 million, a decrease of 99,000 from the previous week's revised level of 1.413 million. Street had expected jobless claims to slump to 1.375 million from the 1.427 million originally reported for the previous week. The Labor Department said the less volatile four-week moving average also fell to 1,437,250, a decrease of 63,000 from the previous week's revised average of 1,500,250.

 

Crude oil futures ended sharply lower on Thursday as traders contended with rising cases of coronavirus in the US and some other countries that may threaten to unsettle demand for crude. With Covid-19 cases on the rise in 42 states across the United States, investors fear that re-imposition of lockdown measures will hold back any sustained recovery in fuel demand. The United States reported more than 60,000 new Covid-19 cases on Wednesday, the biggest increase ever reported by a country in a single day. Also contributing to oil's weakness was the report that Libya is likely to resume exports after the state oil firm lifted force majeure at its Es Sider oil terminal on Wednesday. Crude oil futures for August dropped $1.28 or 3.1 percent to settle at $39.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. September Brent crude fell 94 cents or 2.2 percent to settle at $42.35 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended marginally higher against dollar on Thursday, on persistent selling of the American currency by exporters. Traders remained positive with report that the India's consumer price inflation is likely to be eased in June from March, as loosened coronavirus-led restrictions in most of the country drove a slight recovery in economic activity and helped reduce a supply crunch. The rupee also derived its strength from strong gains in the local equity markets as well as dollar's weakness against some currencies overseas. On the global front; dollar fell against most currencies on Thursday as a rally in riskier assets such as global equities and commodities put a dent in safe-haven demand for the U.S. currency. Finally, the rupee ended at 74.99, 3 paise stronger from its previous close of 75.02 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5355.74 crore against gross selling of Rs 6415.20 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 875.67 crore with gross sales of Rs 619.05 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 52.97 crore against gross selling of Rs 50.94 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly in red on Thursday as the relentless surge in coronavirus cases across America raised fears of another lockdown in several states and dimmed prospects for a quick economic recovery. All the Asian markets are trading lower on Friday following overnight weak trade on Wall Street. Indian markets ended sharply higher on Thursday with financials and metal stocks gaining ground ahead of the start of corporate earnings season amid positive global cues. Today, the markets are likely to get negative start amid weakness in the global markets and ahead of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data, which is scheduled to be announced post market hours. Rising coronavirus cases is likely to dampen the sentiments in the markets. India has recorded over 25,500 new coronavirus cases in a day, taking its total to 794,842. The country's Covid-19 death toll has reached 21,623. There will be some cautiousness with a private report that India's GDP will contract by 3 percent in FY21 because of the coronavirus pandemic, assuming the economy is opened up fully from next month. It also said the RBI will monetise the fiscal deficit through purchase of government bonds of up to $95 billion through open market operations, and its revaluation reserves of $127 billion may also be used to recapitalise state-run banks. However, some respite may come later in the day as Principal Economic Adviser Sanjeev Sanyal said that the government will undertake measures to boost demand and there is both monetary and fiscal headroom available. He stated that economic activity is steadily getting back on track. Sanyal indicated that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may cut interest rates further as a monetary policy tool to improve demand. Traders may take note of report that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in an effort to woo global investors, said that India has massive opportunities in various sectors such as defence, agriculture, and MSMEs. He emphasized on the opportunity that India provides, being one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. Auto stocks will be in focus with Crisil Research's report that the coronavirus pandemic-induced nationwide lockdown is expected to squeeze automotive aftermarket spending by 11 per cent this fiscal. There will be some reaction in pharma stocks with Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance's (IPA) statement that Indian pharma industry is committed to an uninterrupted supply of quality medicines to patients in India and globally. There will be lots of earnings reaction based on the performance of the companies.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10,813.45

10,752.02

10,855.87

BSE Sensex

36,737.69

36,504.56

36,888.56

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

 

Support  (Rs)

 

Resistance (Rs)

 

(in Lacs)

State Bank of India

895.41

199.10

194.10

202.55

Tata Motors

544.93

106.95

104.75

109.05

Hindalco Industries

451.81

164.80

158.98

168.53

ICICI Bank

351.45

370.35

365.10

375.80

GAIL (India)

295.17

105.55

103.23

107.68

 

  • Cipla has launched its generic version of antiviral drug remdesivir at Rs 4,000 per vial, and is looking to supply over 80,000 vials within the first month.        
  • ICICI Bank's board has approved raising of funds for an amount aggregating up to Rs 15,000 crore, in one or more tranches. 
  • IOC has resumed work on projects worth Rs 1.04 lakh crore which will help address future energy demand as well as kickstart the economy. 
  • Tech Mahindra has launched a new digital platform branded as bCRMS for the global media and entertainment industry.
News Analysis