Javeri Fiscal Services Ltd. Daily Newsletter
NSE Intra-day chart (09 June 2016)
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Market Commentary 10 June 2016
Markets to make a flat start; IIP data eyed

 

Indian markets after witnessing consolidation in the previous session, succumbed to intensified selling pressure on Thursday that dragged the benchmarks down by around a percent. Sentiments remained down-beat with the report that the World Bank lowered India's growth projections by 0.2% to 7.6% for 2016-17 and 7.7% in 2017-18, citing the drag by exports on economic activity. Besides, concern over rising crude oil prices, which are hovering near their one year highs, too weighed down sentiments. Rise in crude oil prices will adversely impact India's fiscal deficit situation and will increase fuel price inflation, as India imports about 80% of its crude requirements. Further, some market participants remained on the sidelines and refrained from any buying activity ahead of industrial production data for April which is scheduled to be released on Friday. Investors failed to get any sense of relief with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement that his dream was to economically empower every Indian by 2022, the 75th anniversary of India's Independence Day. Meanwhile, Auto stocks came under selling pressure on report that domestic passenger car sales dipped by 0.86% to 158,996 units in May from 1,60,371 units in the year-ago month. However, metal & mining stocks showed some realization as copper prices rose in global commodity markets. Infra stocks too gained, as the governing council of National Investment and Infrastructure Fund chaired by finance minister Arun Jaitley reviewed progress of operationalising India's maiden sovereign wealth fund NIIF, including the selection of its CEO and projects shortlisted for making initial investments. The government has proposed a corpus of Rs 40,000 crore for NIIF, which will invest in infrastructure projects. On the global front, Asian markets ended mostly lower on Thursday, while the European shares too opened lower. Back home, the local benchmark indices started the session on a somber note, as investors were largely influenced by the daunting sentiments prevailing in Asian markets. Thereafter, the key indices failed to show any kind of fervor due to lack of encouraging leads. The key gauges suffered a setback in afternoon trades as sudden bouts of profit booking emerged in the local markets immediately after a somber European market opening. Finally, the BSE Sensex ended lower by 257.20 points or 0.95% to 26763.46, while the CNX Nifty dropped 69.45 points or 0.84% to 8,203.60. 

 

The US markets closed lower on Thursday, snapping a three-day win streak as oil futures pulled back from 10-month highs. Market reaction to initial jobless claims was muted as a weekly tally of those seeking first-time unemployment benefits pointed to low levels of layoffs even as other data showed hiring slowed in recent months. Initial US jobless claims fell to the lowest level in six weeks, showing that layoffs remain low despite a nationwide slowdown in hiring. New applications for unemployment benefits declined by 4,000 and stood at 264,000 from a revised 268,000 in the prior week. Claims sit near the lowest level in decades and have barely budged even though the pace of job creation has cratered in the past two months. The economy added just 38,000 jobs in May after a mediocre 123,000 gain in April. Separately, US wholesalers stocked up in April by the most in almost a year, perhaps a sign they expect sales to increase accelerate in the summer after a weak first quarter. Wholesale inventories jumped 0.6% in April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by 19.86 points or 0.11 percent to 17,985.19, Nasdaq lost 16.02 points or 0.32 percent to 4,958.62 while, S&P 500 dropped 3.64 points or 0.17 percent to 2,115.48.

 

Crude oil futures suffered some profit taking on Thursday after rallying for last three sessions, after the dollar strengthened and there were signs that global production is picking up. Canadian oil sands producers are getting back online. However, there were some concerns as well with the Ultimate Warriors of the Niger Delta making threats to the Nigerian government, demanding that president Muhammadu Buhari's administration provide 60% of oil and gas revenues to the native people of the Niger Delta region. Benchmark crude oil futures for July delivery declined by $0.69 or 1.35 percent to $50.54 a barrel after trading in a range of $50.23 and $51.67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for August delivery closed at $51.92, down $0.59 or 1.12 percent on the ICE.

 

Snapping its five-day winning streak, Indian rupee depreciated against dollar on Thursday due to demand for greenback by banks and importers. The domestic currency further surrendered its early gain after sharp fall in the local equity markets. Besides, investors remained cautious ahead of the release the April factory output data on 10 June. On the global front, dollar hit a five-week low against the yen on Thursday, due to falling Treasury yields amid waning expectations that the Federal Reserve will lift interest rates anytime soon. Finally, the rupee ended at 66.71, 6 paise weaker from its previous close at 66.65 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity, the gross buying was of Rs 4219.06 crore against gross selling of Rs 3678.48 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1551.76 crore with gross sales of Rs 1198.54 crore.             

 

The US markets ended modestly lower in last session, as traders booked recent profits amid renewed concerns about the domestic economy after a report from Commerce Department showed that wholesale inventories advanced 0.6 percent in April. Though, the jobless claims came in lower than last week. The Asian markets have made mostly a lower start, with some of the indices trading lower by about half a percent, led by the Japanese market with strengthening yen. The Indian markets suffered sharp cuts in last session and the major averages lost about a percent. Today, the start is likely to remain soft tailing the weak global cues and traders will be eyeing the Industrial production data slated to be announced later in the day, the IIP for March 2016 was just 0.1 per cent higher as compared to the level in March 2015. There will be some buzz in tobacco companies, as the NITI Aayog has raised certain issues on the proposal to completely ban foreign direct investment (FDI) in the tobacco sector, as the ban would eliminate the possibility of indirect flow of overseas funds to the tobacco sector. The railways stocks too will be in action on Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu's announcement that the Indian Railways will invest $140 billion over the next five years in infrastructure and improving the mobility of its services. The aviation stocks too may continue their jubilation after the government announced that it was not looking at capping airfares and would prefer to leave it to market forces, also as the crude oil cooled off after three days of rally.  

 

Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

8203.60

8167.68

8256.43

BSE Sensex

26763.46

26638.90

26941.46

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

SBI

278.58

209.95

207.90

212.40

Hindalco

160.09

110.90

109.03

112.68

ICICI Bank

125.34

254.55

252.08

258.13

Bank of Baroda

88.85

149.05

146.58

151.58

Tata Motors

85.25

467.15

464.68

469.93

  

  • NTPC has signed an agreement with South Western Railway for doubling of the Hotgi-Kudgi section under the Customer Funding Concession scheme.
  • RBI has notified that FIIs/RFPIs can now invest up to 49% of the paid up capital of Bharat Petroleum Corporation under the Portfolio Investment Scheme.
  • HCL Technologies has signed partnerships with two leading automotive solution providers to expand its offerings for the fast-growing smart vehicle ecosystem.
  • Lupin has recalled over 54,000 vials of anti-bacterial injection, Ceftriaxone, due to violation of current manufacturing norms.
  • SBI has entered into a memorandum of understanding with Jain Farm Fresh Foods, a arm of Jain Irrigation Systems to help farmers associated with the latter to get finance against receivables due from the company.
News Analysis