Javeri Fiscal Services Ltd. Daily Newsletter
NSE Intra-day chart (06 December 2019)
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Market Commentary 09 December 2019
Benchmarks to make a cautious start amid growth concerns

                                                                                              

Bears dominated Dalal Street on Friday, with Sensex and Nifty losing over 0.80% each. The start of the day was positive, as Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das indicated that the government may come up with some countercyclical policy measures on the fiscal side to revive growth. Indices remained in green during early morning deals, taking support with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement the target of Rs 5 lakh crore business through government's e-marketplace GeM is achievable in less than five years given the huge amount of procurement done via the platform. However, markets failed to hold gains in noon deals and turned negative to settle in red terrain, impacted with Reserve Bank of India's consumer confidence survey which highlighted that a further drop in consumer confidence in November as households remained pessimistic about jobs and the general economic situation. Weakness persisted over the street, as Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) expressed disappointment at the RBI's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and said there is a need for continued action on the policy rate front to boost growth. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 334.44 points or 0.82% to 40,445.15, while the CNX Nifty was down by 96.90 points or 0.81% to 11,921.50.

 

The US markets traded jubilantly and ended with a significant gain of around a percent on Friday. Sentiments remained up-beat after the Labor Department's closely watched monthly employment report showing much stronger than expected US job growth in the month of November. The report said non-farm payroll employment surged up by 266,000 jobs in November after climbing by an upwardly revised 156,000 jobs in October. The street had expected an increase of about 180,000 jobs compared to the addition of 128,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month. The Labor Department said notable job gains occurred in healthcare and in professional and technical services, while manufacturing employment also rose as General Motors (GM) workers returned from a strike. With the stronger than expected job growth, the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent in November from 3.6 percent in October. The unemployment rate was expected to remain unchanged. Traders also remained optimistic with preliminary data released by the University of Michigan showed a much bigger than expected improvement in US consumer sentiment in the month of December. The report said the consumer sentiment index climbed to 99.2 in December from the final November reading of 96.8. Street had expected the index to inch up to 97.0. With the much bigger than expected increase, the consumer sentiment index reached its highest level since hitting 100.0 in May. Surveys of Consumers chief economist Richard Curtin said nearly all of the improvement in consumer sentiment in December was among upper income households, who reported near record gains in household wealth due to record high stock prices.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Friday after Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed to deepen oil production cuts in order to prevent oversupply in the market. The new deal agreed upon during the Vienna meet will apply for the first three months of 2020. The move follows the recommendation of the oil exporting countries to deepen the cuts by 500,000 barrels per day to existing 1.2 million barrels per day. The total curb of 1.7 million barrels per day would amount to 1.7% of global crude supply. Saudi Arabia's energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that the kingdom's quota would be an additional 167,000 barrels per day and that it would continue to exceed its quota by 400,000 barrels a day, thus bringing the overall production cut to closer to 2.1 million barrels a day. Positive comments on the trade deal front and upbeat US jobs data also contributed as well to oil's sharp rise. Benchmark crude oil futures for January gained 77 cents or 1.3 percent to settle at $59.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Moreover, January Brent added $1 or 1.6% percent to settle at $64.39 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Erasing all of its initial losses, Indian rupee ended marginally higher against dollar on Friday on selling of dollars by banks and exporters. Traders took some support with Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das indicating that the government may come up with some countercyclical policy measures on the fiscal side to revive growth. However, further upward move got restricted as Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) expressed disappointment at the RBI's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and said there is a need for continued action on the policy rate front to boost growth. On the global front, euro was steady against dollar on Friday, though the greenback was headed for its worst week since mid-October, dragged down by nervousness around US-China trade relations and hints of weakness in the US economy. Finally, the rupee ended at 71.20, 9 paise stronger from its previous close of 71.29 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4602.88 crore against gross selling of Rs 4165.47 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1066.22 crore with gross sales of Rs 1110.04 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 24.45 crore against gross selling of Rs 20.06 crore. 

 

The US markets ended higher on Friday on much better than expected jobs data. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Monday, catching some of Wall Street's momentum after surprisingly strong US jobs data although regional gains were capped by concerns about China's economy due to the prolonged Sino-US trade war. Indian markets ended sharply lower on Friday, dragged by sustained selling in banking, consumer and auto counters. Today, the markets are likely to make cautious start amid concerns over ongoing slowdown in the India's economy and inflationary risk. Investors will be eyeing macro-economic data to be out later in the week. IHS Markit in its latest report said that India's real GDP growth in 2019-20 fiscal is expected to be slightly below 5 per cent as the impact of stimulus measures will take time to filter through to the economy. Some cautiousness will come with report that reversing their buying trend, foreign portfolio investors (FPI) turned net sellers in December with a net outflow of Rs 244 crore from the capital markets amid subdued economic data. Traders will be also concerned with former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan's statement that India is in the midst of a growth recession with signs of deep malaise in the Indian economy that is being run through extreme centralisation of power in Prime Minister's Office and powerless ministers. However, some support may come with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that the government is working on more measures to revive the sagging economy. She added that the government has taken several measures during August and September to boost the economy. Traders may take note of report that industry chamber CII has suggested that the government should reduce the personal income tax rate and slash corporate tax further to 15 percent for all companies over three years to boost demand and propel growth. There will be some buzz in the banking stocks with report that the insurance regulator may allow public sector banks to hold over 10 per cent stake in multiple insurance companies, given that they limit their promoter control to one entity and remain just an investor in others with no say in management decisions.

 

       Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

11,921.50

11,854.55

12,022.75

BSE Sensex

40,445.15

40,204.41

40,819.01

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Yes Bank

2,824.41

56.00

53.85

59.45

SBI

470.28

320.00

312.78

332.43

Bharti Infratel

295.51

259.70

250.83

265.28

ZEEL

292.45

287.70

279.93

298.93

Tata Motors

277.27

161.50

158.37

166.32

 

  • M&M has acquired 36.63% of the Equity Share Capital of Meru in the first tranche of investment, and also the Right to appoint majority of the Directors on the Board of Meru.  
  • Bajaj Finance has participated in QIP of RBL Bank and have been allotted 42.73 lakh equity shares at a price of Rs 351 per equity shares aggregating to around Rs 150 crore. 
  • Tata Motors in conjunction with the IOC has flagged off the second Sarathi Aaram Kendra, at COCO Narsapura, Karnataka, near Bangalore on NH4. 
  • Dr. Reddy's Laboratories has launched Deferasirox Tablets for Oral Suspension, approved by the USFDA.
News Analysis