Javeri Fiscal Services Ltd. Daily Newsletter
NSE Intra-day chart (08 June 2016)
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Market Commentary 09 June 2016
Markets to make a cautious start tailing global markets

 

Wednesday's trading session was clearly of consolidation as the Indian benchmark indices appeared a bit fatigued and remained in directionless trajectory throughout the day.  However, the benchmarks managed to extend the winning momentum for the second consecutive day, as local sentiments continued to show signs of improvement after Indian Meteorological Department's report that Southwest monsoon has hit Kerala. The day's session largely remained characterized by choppiness as the aimless indices moved only sideways in a tight band lack of triggers. Sentiments got some support with the government pitching for a ratings upgrade with global agency Fitch Ratings citing improvement in macroeconomic conditions and its commitment to fiscal consolidation. Fitch Ratings had in December affirmed India's 'BBB-' rating with a stable outlook.  Appreciation in the rupee too provided some support to domestic markets. Indian rupee strengthened by 12 paise to 66.66 against the US dollar at the time of equity markets closing on increased selling of the American currency by exporters amid foreign fund inflows. Some support also came in from reports that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 499.73 crore on June 7, 2016. Meanwhile, defence-sector stocks, including Bharat Electronics, Astra Micro Wave Products, Reliance Defence and Engineering and Walchandnagar Industries, rallied after the private reports showed India was on its way to becoming a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). The deal will pave way for India to procure high-end missile technology and surveillance systems by leading manufacturers.  Moreover, logistics companies surged on hopes of clearance of the crucial Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill in the upper house of the Parliament, while telecom stocks gained on reports the Telecom Commission has lowered the annual spectrum usage fee to 3% of revenue for all bands in the upcoming spectrum auction scheduled in July. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 10.99 points or 0.04% to 27020.66, while the CNX Nifty rose 6.60 points or 0.08% to 8,273.05.

 

The US markets closed higher on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising for a third straight session to close above the psychologically important 18,000 for the first time in over a month, as oil rallied to an 11-month high. Hints from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen this week that the next interest-rate hike might be pushed back are also bolstered sentiment. Investors mostly shrugged off the news that companies had a record number of open jobs in April. The number of job openings in the US unexpectedly rose in April, remaining in territory consistent with an improving labor market as employers actively seek workers. The US Labor Department stated that the number of job openings, excluding the farming industry, increased to 5.780 million in April from 5.670 million a month earlier, which was revised from the original reading of 5.757 million. Meanwhile, US consumer borrowing slowed in April, as Americans became more cautious about running up credit-card debt. Outstanding consumer credit, a measure of non-mortgage debt, rose by a seasonally adjusted $13.42 billion in April from the prior month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up by 66.77 points or 0.37 percent to 18,005.05, Nasdaq gained 12.89 points or 0.26 percent to 4,974.64 while, S&P 500 added 6.99 points or 0.33 percent to 2,119.12.

 

Crude oil futures continued their surge on Wednesday, with Nymex crude settling above $51 for the first time in almost a year. The rally was led by weaker dollar and large draw down in US crude oil inventories. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.2 million barrels for the week ending on June 3. At 532.5 million barrels, US crude oil inventories are still at historically high levels for this time of year. Benchmark crude oil futures for July delivery inched up by $0.84 or 1.67 percent to $51.20 a barrel after trading in a range of $50.33 and $51.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for August delivery closed at $52.46, up $1.02 or 1.98 percent on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee ended stronger against dollar for the fifth straight day on Wednesday, on increased selling of the US currency by exporters and banks amid higher foreign fund inflows. The domestic currency was also supported by the gains in equity markets, which managed a positive close after the choppy trading session. Besides, weak dollar against some currencies overseas too added to the positive milieu of Indian currency. Sentiments got some support with the government pitching for a ratings upgrade with global agency Fitch Ratings citing improvement in macroeconomic conditions and its commitment to fiscal consolidation. Fitch Ratings had in December affirmed India's 'BBB-' rating with a stable outlook. On the global front, dollar fell on Wednesday, as hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this month continued to lighten, ahead of US and Japanese central bank meetings next week. Finally, the rupee ended at 66.65, 13 paise stronger from its previous close at 66.78 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity, the gross buying was of Rs 6053.55 crore against gross selling of Rs 5510.49 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 917.58 crore with gross sales of Rs 976.96 crore.            

 

The US markets made a modestly higher close in last session amid increase in oil, with the S&P 500 reaching its highest closing level in well over ten months. Though, the overall trading activity remained relatively light amid the lack of more significant U.S. economic data on the day. The Asian markets have made a mixed start again and some of the major indices are in red, led by the Japanese market which retreated on strength in yen. The Indian markets managed a flat closing with a positive bias in the last session. Today, the start is likely to be in green taking cues from the global markets, but the mood will remain cautious and traders will be looking for further cues ahead of the US FOMC rate decision next week. Also, there will be concern with rising crude oil prices, which are hovering near their one year highs. Markets may get some encouragement with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement that his dream was to economically empower every Indian by 2022, the 75th anniversary of India's Independence Day. There will be some buzz in infra sector, as the governing council of National Investment and Infrastructure Fund chaired by finance minister Arun Jaitley reviewed progress of operationalising India's maiden sovereign wealth fund NIIF, including the selection of its CEO and projects shortlisted for making initial investments. The government has proposed a corpus of Rs 40,000 crore for NIIF, which will invest in infrastructure projects.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

8273.05

8253.77

8290.62

BSE Sensex

27020.66

26961.11

27092.81

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

SBI

351.63

210.70

208.20

212.55

ICICI Bank

228.54

257.65

253.23

261.63

Hindalco

106.23

109.35

108.08

110.53

Tata Motors

104.67

466.15

463.30

468.90

Bank of Baroda

79.76

147.95

145.00

150.15

 

  • Wipro has entered into partnership with Mountain view based Authentise Inc, a leading provider of 3D printing technologies and consulting services.
  • L&T's construction arm L&T Constructions, along with its JV partner in Qatar, Al Balagh Trading & Contracting, has signed a contract to build a 40,000 seater stadium.
  • Tata Power Delhi Distribution, a joint venture of Tata Power and the Government of Delhi, has commissioned a 66/11 kV AIS grid substation at Sector 34, Rohini, Delhi.
  • Sun Pharmaceutical has entered the dermatology segment as part of an initiative to further expand its retail offerings.
  • HDFC Bank is planning to launch a mobile payment service that will support NFC, host card emulation and QR code based payments.
News Analysis