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NSE Intra-day chart (05 October 2018)
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Market Commentary 08 October 2018
Markets to make pessimistic start on weak Asian cues


 

Extending southward journey for third straight day, Indian equity benchmarks witnessed bloodbath with frontline gauges ending below their crucial 34,400 (Sensex) and 10,350 (Nifty) levels. Markets started the session on pessimistic note, as traders remain concerned about Union minister Nitin Gadkari's statement that the country is facing lot of economic crisis due to crude oil imports and need to reduce imports and increase exports. Some cautiousness also crept in with a private report that liberalising foreign borrowings for oil companies to raise to $10 billion will not have a material impact on arresting the slide of the rupee. Adding some worries, Fitch Ratings in its latest report said that the acquisitions of distressed Indian steel assets could significantly increase the leverage of the acquiring companies, which also face the risk of domestic output being displaced by a substantial increase in imports from the escalation of trade barriers. Selling got intensified in last leg of trade to end below their respective crucial levels, after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. However, the MPC changed the stance from Neutral to Calibrated Tightening. Domestic sentiments also got hit with a private report indicating that amidst the erratic distribution of monsoon rains and with the possibilities of as many as 254 districts facing drought like situation, the total kharif cereals production likely to decline marginally by 1.71% compared to last kharif. The markets participants paid no heed towards Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that the government is determined to contain the crisis at the IL&FS at the earliest so that it does not leave any adverse impact. The street even overlooked a report that salaries in the country are projected to increase by 10% in 2019, the highest in the Asia Pacific region. Finally, the BSE Sensex tumbled 792.17 points or 2.25% to 34,376.99, while the CNX Nifty was down by 282.80 points or 2.67% to 10,316.45.

 

Extending losses for second straight session, the US markets ended lower on Friday on worries about runaway inflation spurred by the sudden jump in US Treasury bond yields. Dow Jones Industrial witnessed its biggest one-day percentage drop since August, while both the S&P and the Nasdaq logged the biggest daily drop since late June. Besides, the Labor Department report showed weaker than expected job growth in September, the jump in employment in August was upwardly revised and the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since 1969. The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment climbed by 134,000 jobs in September, while street had expected an increase of about 185,000 jobs. However, the report also showed a significant upward revision to the pace of job growth in August, with employment spiking by 270,000 jobs compared to the originally reported jump of 201,000 jobs. As per the data, the unemployment rate fell to 3.7% in September from 3.9% in August. The unemployment rate had been expected to edge down to 3.8%. With the bigger than expected decrease, the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since hitting 3.5% in December of 1969. Average hourly employee earnings rose by $0.08 or 0.3% to $27.24 in September, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.8%. A separate report from the Commerce Department showed that the US trade deficit widened in August, reflecting an increase in imports and a decrease in exports. The Commerce Department said the trade deficit widened to $53.2 billion in August from a revised $50.0 billion in July. Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 180.43 points or 0.68 percent to 26,447.05, Nasdaq slipped 91.06 points or 1.16 percent to 7,788.45 and the S&P 500 was down by 16.04 points or 0.55 percent to 2,885.57.

 

Giving up most of the early gains, crude oil futures ended almost flat on Friday as prospects of possible drop in supply post implementation of sanctions on Iran from early November weighted down on investors' sentiments. The decision of Russia and Saudi Arabia to increase output till December also added pressure on crude oil prices. According to an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts, industry officials and shipping data released on Friday showed that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) 15 members raised their crude-oil output in September to 33.07 million barrels a day- a 180,000-barrel-a-day rise from August. Traders were looking ahead for the weekly oil rig count report from Baker Hughes. Benchmark crude oil futures for November tacked on a penny to settle at $74.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. December Brent crude slipped 42 cents or 0.5 percent to settle at $84.16 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchanged.

 

Falling for the fourth consecutive session, Indian rupee plunged to a fresh record closing low against the US dollar on Friday, after Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key rates unchanged. Traders remain concerned about Union minister Nitin Gadkari's statement that the country is facing lot of economic crisis due to crude oil imports and need to reduce imports and increase exports. Some cautiousness also crept in with a private report indicating that amidst the erratic distribution of monsoon rains and with the possibilities of as many as 254 districts facing drought like situation, the total kharif cereals production likely to decline marginally by 1.71% compared to last kharif. However, the local currency recovered from its all-time low of 74.23 in final hours, as some relief came with a report that salaries in the country are projected to increase by 10% in 2019, the highest in the Asia Pacific region. On the global front, dollar's rally took a pause on Friday as investors awaited monthly US jobs data later in the day and evaluated the impact of a two-day global government bond rout that has lifted US Treasury yields to seven-year highs. Finally, the rupee ended at 73.76, 18 paise weaker from its previous close of 73.58 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5780.03 crore against gross selling of Rs 8040.85 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 323.73 crore with gross sales of Rs 821.05 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 1.19 crore against gross selling of Rs 1.62 crore.

 

The US markets declined on Friday after strong US jobs numbers signaled a continued tightening of the labor market and increased inflation pressures, while Treasury yields rose again to multi-year highs. Asian markets were trading mostly in red on Monday as investors waited with bated breath as China's markets prepare to reopen following a week-long holiday and after its central bank cut banks' reserve requirements in a bid to support growth. The Indian markets continued their weak trade for second straight session to end near intra-day low level on Friday after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, surprising street who had expected a 25-bps rate hike to defend the falling rupee. Today, the markets are likely to pessimistic start tracking negative cues from other Asian markets. Traders will be concerned about Exporters' body Federation of Indian Export Organisations' (FIEO) statement that the rupee depreciation is increasing the cost of imported capital goods, inputs and various services used by exporters paid in foreign currency, particularly the freight charges. Traders will also be reacting to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) statement that the Centre and states should stick to the fiscal deficit target as any slippage will have an adverse bearing on inflation and increase market volatility. There will be some cautiousness with a private report that foreign investors have pulled out over Rs 9,300 crore ($1.3 billion) from the Indian capital markets in the last four trading sessions on unabated fall in rupee and rise in crude oil price. Also, another private report said that the share of private investments in the infrastructure sector has fallen to a decadal low of around 25% in FY18 steeply down from a high of 37% in FY08. However, traders may get some support with the World Bank in its latest report on South Asia saying that growth in India is firming up and projected to accelerate to 7.3% in the 2018-19 fiscal and 7.5% in the next two years. Besides, Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has promised more steps to cut the current account deficit (CAD) and bolster foreign exchange inflows, seeking to calm frayed nerves amid a stock market crash and falling rupee.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10,316.45

10,205.35

10,484.10

BSE Sensex

34,376.99

34,013.29

34,929.61

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation

869.02

165.10

153.58

186.03

Indian Oil Corporation

808.85

118.05

106.77

127.82

Bharat Petroleum Corporation

557.20

265.30

236.55

296.05

Yes Bank

405.47

206.00

199.90

215.30

State Bank of India

366.29

258.35

252.57

267.57

 

  • HDFC Bank has launched instant renewal of insurance for cars and two-wheelers with multiple payment options such as Mobile Banking app, SMS, ATM, PayZapp and NetBanking. 
  • Maruti Suzuki has launched new WagonR Limited Edition. 
  • Infosys' subsidiary -- EdgeVerve Systems has launched the AssistEdge Community Edition - a free version of its flagship AssistEdge automation platform. 
  • Titan Company's Jewellery business has done well in Q2 FY19 and witnessed gains in market share.
News Analysis