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Market Commentary 01 June 2016
Markets to get a positive start on upbeat economic data

 

It was a lackadaisical performance from the Indian benchmark indices on Tuesday, as they failed to snap the session in the green territory and settled marginally below the neutral line. The frontline gauges took a breather, after showcasing a scintillating performance in last five trading sessions and investors chose to remain on the sidelines ahead of the key gross domestic product (GDP) and fiscal deficit data due later today. India's GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2015-16 is likely to be around 7.1 per cent, but slow private sector capital expenditure (capex) spending and stressed banking sector will weigh on the economy's growth potential this year. Depreciation in Indian rupee too weighed down sentiments. Indian rupee erased its initial gains and was trading weak at 67.20 at the time of equity markets closing on account of month-end dollar demand from importers and fresh capital outflows.  However, investors got some comfort after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley promised more structural and market-oriented reforms as well as stepping up infrastructure spending to accelerate economic growth beyond the current 7.6 per cent.  He also promised to reform the tax structure to make it simpler, predictable and stable. Some support also came with the former Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong's statement that India is a beacon of hope and has the potential to drive the world economy for the next 10 years, amid concerns of slowing global growth. On the global front, most of the Asian markets ended higher on Tuesday, while European stocks edged lower in early trade. Back home, after getting firm start, the local benchmark indices slipped into negative territory in late morning trade as market participants booked profits at attractive and higher levels. Though the indices didn't showed any sharp correction and traded in a tight range below neutral line for most part of the session amid lack of key triggers ahead of March quarter GDP numbers and March fiscal deficit data, scheduled for release after the market hours. Finally, the BSE Sensex ended lower by 57.64 points or 0.22% to 26667.96, while the CNX Nifty dropped 18.40 points or 0.22% to 8,160.10. 

 

The US markets closed mostly lower on Tuesday, as investors turned cautious on the last trading day of the month and ahead of key economic data releases this week. On the economy front, a measure of Chicago-area economic activity fell in May back into contraction territory, an indication that the manufacturing sector is still sluggish. Chicago PMI fell 1.1 points to 49.3 in May. That's the lowest level since February and the sixth time in 12 months it's been below the 50 level, marking contraction. Consumer confidence fell in May to the lowest level since late 2015 as Americans turned slightly more pessimistic about overall business conditions and the job market. The consumer confidence index dropped to 92.6 from a revised 94.7 in April. That's the lowest level since November and well below the post recession high of 103.8 set in early 2015. Separately, consumer spending leaped 1% in April to mark the biggest gain in almost seven years, as Americans splurged on new cars and trucks. Higher gas prices also contributed to the gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 86.02 points or 0.48 percent to 17,787.20, S&P 500 inched lower by 2.10 points or 0.10 percent to 2,096.96, while Nasdaq was up by 14.55 points or 0.29 percent to 4,948.06.

 

Crude oil futures declined on Tuesday, though they managed to snap the month of May higher by over 7%. The trade for the day turned volatile on stronger dollar and concerns about the outcome of this week's OPEC meeting. Bearish comments from the United Arab Emirates' oil minister Suhail Al Mazroui that the oil market has been correcting upwards of late and that he is happy with the market's current state, lowered any chances of production cut. Earlier, the prices moved higher after industry research group Genscape said inventories at the Cushing Oil Hub in Oklahoma fell by 686,600 last week. Benchmark crude oil futures for July delivery declined by $0.27 or 0.55 percent to $49.07 a barrel after trading in a range of $49.05 and $50.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for August delivery closed at $49.88, down $0.49 or 0.97 percent on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee extended its weakness on Tuesday on some fresh capital outflow and also due to month-end dollar demand from importers. The domestic currency that had snapped its gaining streak in last session, made a positive start and gained some strength with some upmove in the local equity markets, but once the equity markets lost their momentum and slipped into red, the rupee followed the trend. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India has capped weekly dollar purchases by oil refiners to pay off their debts to Iran in order to avoid pressure on the rupee. Traders remained a bit cautious ahead of the release of the key gross domestic product (GDP) and fiscal deficit data due later in the day. On the global front, the dollar continued hovering at two-month highs against the other major currencies, on expectations for a US rate hike next month. Finally, the rupee ended at 67.26, 9 paise weaker from its previous close at 67.17 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity, the gross buying was of Rs 4129.23 crore against gross selling of Rs 3739.71 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 674.61 crore with gross sales of Rs 289.75 crore.            

 

The US markets made a mixed closing in last session, as traders seemed somewhat reluctant to make any significant moves ahead of the release of the closely watched monthly jobs report on Friday. Traders largely overlooked the Commerce Department report that personal spending surged up by 1.0 percent in April.  The Asian markets after making mostly a positive start are trading mixed, as crude turned lower, while the Japanese share led the decliners as the yen strengthened. The Indian markets came into consolidation mood in last session and snapped their five days gaining streak, traders were a bit cautious ahead of key economic data announcements, while the global cues too remained unsupportive. Today, the start of the new month is likely to be in green and traders will be rejoicing the good GDP numbers. The economy clocked 7.6 per cent growth rate for 2015- 16 fiscal, up from 7.2 per cent a year ago. The full-year growth was fuelled by close to eight per cent growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2015-16. Meanwhile, reacting to the better than expected numbers, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has said that Indian economy is treading the upward curve in its growth trajectory and investors wanting higher returns should park funds in infrastructure and manufacturing sector. Also, the Finance Ministry pinning hopes of a good monsoon has said that it expects GDP growth rate to notch up to 8 percent in the current financial year. Traders will also be getting support with the India's eight core sectors growth surging by 8.5 percent in April to a four year high, compared to (-)0.2 percent in same month last year. In slew of good economic data, the Centre met the fiscal deficit target of 3.9% of GDP in FY16 on the back of several measures taken by the government. The PSU oil companies will see some action, after increasing prices of petrol by Rs 2.58 per litre and diesel rates by Rs 2.26 per litre in order to align the domestic rates of the automobile fuels with global prices.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

8160.10

8125.07

8204.37

BSE Sensex

26667.96

26540.63

26816.25

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

Tata Motors

1,107.44

459.65

448.13

468.03

NTPC

413.79

143.15

139.38

147.43

SBI

394.58

204.95

198.87

208.37

Hindalco

365.81

105.25

102.62

107.77

Bharti Airtel

218.84

351.40

346.70

356.55

 

  • ONGC Videsh, the overseas investment arm of ONGC, has signed a pact with SOCAR Trading SA to explore the possibility of joint marketing of the Indian firm's crude oil portfolio.
  • Tech Mahindra has concluded the acquisition of 76.06% stake in Pininfarina S.p.A through Special Purpose Vehicle.
  • Tata Motors' arm Jaguar Land Rover is planning to invest around 3.75 billion pounds during the current fiscal 2016-17 to expand global production capacity, new technologies and new vehicles.
  • Yes Bank has partnered with Click&pay, T-Hub's portfolio company and a mobile-based payment solutions enterprise, to facilitate cashless, secure and flexible transactions for customers.
  • L&T's arm L&T Hydrocarbon Engineering has tied up with Parsons to provide engineering and design solutions for onshore and offshore projects across the hydrocarbon, fertilizer, chemicals and modular plant sectors.
News Analysis