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NSE Intra-day chart (29 October 2018)
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Market Commentary 30 October 2018
Markets to make pessimistic start on weak global cues


Bulls took the momentum back from bears on Monday as key equity benchmarks ended the day on a strong note, on the back of value buying by traders. The start of the day was little cautious, as Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said crude prices are not under the control of the Indian government and are determined by international forces. Domestic sentiments were affected in early morning deals also due to a private report stating that India's foreign-exchange reserves are shrinking fast and may soon reach a level that could hamper the central bank's ability to defend the rupee. Separately, Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data showed that the country's foreign exchange reserves declined by $942 million to $393.523 billion in the week to October 19 on account of a fall in foreign currency assets. The market participants took note of Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that as an economy evolves, regulation needs to be relaxed or altered keeping in the mind the ground situation. However, the markets soon gained traction to rally in northward direction, supported by Suresh Prabhu's statement that India's export surged to a six-year high of 9.8% in the financial year 2017-18. In the last hours of the trading, key indices extended their gains to settle near their intraday high points, tracking firm European markets. The street cheered the RBI's statement that it will inject Rs 400 billion into the system in November through a purchase of government securities as it looks to meet festive season demand for funds. Adding some optimism, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that India is going through a massive transformative phase and international agencies say the country will drive the growth of the global economy in the coming decade as he invited the Indian community in Japan to contribute actively in building a new India. Some support also came with a private report stating that the global economy is expected to achieve an annual GDP growth rate, as measured in constant dollars, of 3.7% between 2018-2020 before dipping to 3.6% between 2021-2023 and, in turn, pass the $100 trillion mark around 2022. Sentiments also got some comfort as the government is expecting that bad loan recoveries are likely to surpass Rs 1.80 lakh crore target for the current financial year (FY19), through the new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) and other means. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 718.09 points or 2.15% to 34,067.40, while the CNX Nifty was up by 220.85 points or 2.20% to 10,250.85.


The US markets extended their losses for second straight session on Monday, with major indices losing around a percent. Sentiments remained under pressure amid reports that the US is preparing to announce tariffs on all remaining Chinese imports if next month's talks between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping fail to ease the trade war. As per the report, the announcement of the new round of tariffs could come by early December. It added that the new tariffs would apply to Chinese imports that are not already covered by previous rounds of tariffs, or approximately $257 billion worth of goods. Moreover, worries over a possible slowdown in corporate earnings growth, as well as in the global economy, also weighed on market sentiments. Meanwhile, traders largely shrugged off a report from the Commerce Department showing personal income rose by slightly less than expected in the month of September, although the report also showed personal spending increased in line with estimates. The report said personal income edged up by 0.2 percent in September after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.4 percent in August. Street had expected income to rise by 0.3 percent, matching the increase originally reported for the previous month. Disposable personal income, or personal income less personal current taxes, also ticked up by 0.2 percent in September after advancing by 0.4 percent in August. Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 245.39 points or 0.99 percent to 24,442.92, Nasdaq declined 116.92 points or 1.63 percent to 7,050.29 and S&P 500 was down by 17.44 points or 0.66 percent to 2,641.25.


Halting three-day winning streak, crude oil futures ended lower on Monday, amid prospects of a fall in demand for crude due to slowing global economy. Current political situation in Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom are also weighing on crude oil. US sanctions on Iran are set to take effect on November 4, but it is still not clear how big an impact the loss of Iranian oil will make on global supply. Saudi Arabia has already stated that it would step up production to make up for the likely shortfall. Benchmark crude oil futures for December fell 55 cents or 0.8 percent to settle at $67.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. December Brent crude lost 28 cents or 0.4 percent to settle at $77.34 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchanged.


Indian rupee ended marginally higher against dollar on Monday, owing to dollar sale by exporters and banks. Market participants took some support with a private report that the global economy is expected to achieve an annual GDP growth rate, as measured in constant dollars, of 3.7% between 2018-2020 before dipping to 3.6% between 2021-2023 and, in turn, pass the $100 trillion mark around 2022. Besides, a spectacular relief rally in local equities supported the forex sentiment. However, local currency gave up most of its intraday session gains, as anxiety remained among the traders with report stating that India's foreign-exchange reserves are shrinking fast and may soon reach a level that could hamper the central bank's ability to defend the rupee. On the global front, dollar rose towards a 10-week high against a basket of other currencies on Monday as concerns about global growth pervaded markets. Finally, the rupee ended at 73.45, 2 paise stronger from its previous close of 73.47 on Friday.


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4187.82 crore against gross selling of Rs 5581.81 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1090.91 crore with gross sales of Rs 1054.93 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2.03 crore against no selling.


The US markets ended sharply lower on Monday as technology stocks tumbled after a report the Trump administration was set to press its trade war with China. Asian markets were trading mixed in early deals on Tuesday, amid worries about the US-China trade war following a report that the US may impose more tariffs against Chinese goods. Snapping two sessions of losses, Indian markets made remarkable came back on Monday and ended the session near intra-day high level mainly on the back of late hour buying across sectors, including financials amid mixed Asian cues. Today, the markets are likely to make negative start tacking weak global cues amid renewed worries over global trade after a private report stated that the United States is preparing to announce tariffs on all remaining Chinese imports by early December. There will be some cautiousness with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data showing that Indian companies' investment in their overseas ventures fell by 47% to $1.54 billion in September 2018. Indian companies had invested $2.91 billion in their joint ventures (JVs) and wholly-owned subsidiaries (WoS) abroad during September 2017. Meanwhile, India and Japan signed a pact to raise the scope of a bilateral currency swap arrangement to a record $75 billion, aimed at bringing in greater stability in the foreign exchange and capital markets, amid a slide in the rupee in recent months. Moreover, a private report stated that India is Asia's most investment savvy economy and more than two-thirds of the country's affluent class prefer to use various investment products to achieve their financial goals and greater social mobility. There will be some buzz in the sugar sector stocks with report that the Indian Sugar Mills Association said India's sugar output in the current 2018/19 season is expected to be lower than earlier expectations and could drop further if more sugar gets diverted for ethanol production. The sugar output is now seen at 32 million tonnes for the season that began on October 1, down from its previous forecast of 35-35.5 million tonnes. Also, there will be some reaction in aluminium industry related stocks with report that the government is considering a proposal to increase import duty on aluminium with a view to supporting domestic players. There will be lots of important earnings announcements too, to keep the markets in action.


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Tata Motors






  • SBI and Hitachi Payment Services have entered into an agreement to form a joint venture for establishing a card acceptance and digital payment platform.  
  • Axis Bank has sold 4.95% stake in NSDL to its peer HDFC Bank for a consideration of Rs 163.34 crore. 
  • ICICI Bank has reported 55.84% fall in its net profit at Rs 908.88 crore for Q2FY19 as compared to Rs 2,058.19 crore for Q2FY18. 
  • Vedanta has received approval from Government of India for a ten-year extension of the PSC for the Rajasthan Block, RJ-ON-90/1.
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