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NSE Intra-day chart (29 April 2020)
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Market Commentary 30 April 2020
Benchmarks to make gap-up opening amid firm global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks continued their winning run for third straight day and ended with gains of around two percent on Wednesday, tracking gains in Asian markets, as several countries eased coronavirus-induced lockdowns. Key indices made an optimistic start and stayed in green for whole day, as investors took encouragement with private report that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to announce this week a second stimulus for the economy hit by a nationwide lockdown triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, concluding multiple rounds of discussions within the government. Traders also found some solace after markets regulator SEBI extended the deadline by six months for mutual funds to comply with the highest limits of investment in unlisted non-convertible debentures (NCDs). Mutual funds were required to comply with the highest investment limit of 15 per cent and 10 per cent in unlisted NCDs by March 31 and June 30, respectively. Buying got intensified in the late afternoon session, as sentiments remained buoyant with the report that the Asian Development Bank has approved a $1.5 billion (about Rs 11,400 crore) loan to India to help fund its response to the novel coronavirus pandemic, including support for immediate priorities such as disease containment and prevention, as well as social protection for the poor and economically vulnerable sections. Market participants paid no heed towards Moody's Investors Service in its report titled - Global Macro Outlook 2020-21 (April 2020 update), has cut India growth forecast to 0.2 percent, from 2.5 percent projected in March for calendar year 2020. For 2021, Moody's expects India's growth to rebound to 6.2 percent. It said the economic costs of coronavirus crisis amid the near shutdown of the global economy are accumulating rapidly. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 605.64 points or 1.89% to 32,720.16, while the CNX Nifty was up by 172.45 points or 1.84% to 9,553.35.

 

The US markets ended higher on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve held its interest rate target between 0 and 0.25 percent. The Fed said it would continue with its aggressive policy stance until it is comfortable that the economy is back on its feet. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said that the ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and pose considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said medium term risks means over next year or so, primarily length of time to control virus. The risks also involve potential damage to economy, workers, if levels of unemployment remain high for an extended time. The rally on markets also comes as upbeat news about Gilead Sciences' potential coronavirus treatment remdesivir has overshadowed a report from the Commerce Department showing a steep drop in US gross domestic product in the first quarter. The Commerce Department said US real gross domestic product decreased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent in the first quarter following the 2.1 percent jump in the fourth quarter of 2019. A report released by National Association of Realtors (NAR) showed a bigger than expected nosedive in US pending home sales in the month of March. NAR said its pending home sales index plunged by 20.8 percent to 88.2 in March after jumping by 2.3 percent to 111.4 in February. Street had expected the index to tumbled by 10.0. A pending home sale is one in which a contract was signed but not yet closed. Normally, it takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale.

 

Crude oil futures ended sharply higher on Wednesday as government data showed a slightly smaller-than-expected weekly climb in domestic crude supplies, along with declines in gasoline stocks and oil production. According to the data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude stockpiles rose by about 9 million barrels in the US in the week ended April 24, lower than an expected rise of about 11.7 million barrels. The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a climb of nearly 10 million barrels.  Crude stocks at storage hub Cushing, Okla. rose roughly 3.7 million barrels to 63.4 million barrels in the latest week, while total domestic oil production edged down by 100,000 barrels to 12.1 million barrels. Crude oil futures for June surged $2.72 or 22 percent to settle at $15.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. June Brent crude rose $2.08 or 10.2 percent to settle at $22.54 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Rising for the third consecutive day, Indian rupee ended significantly higher against dollar on Wednesday, on continued selling of the American currency by exporters and banks. Sentiments remained buoyant with private report stating that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to announce this week a second stimulus for the economy hit by a nationwide lockdown triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, concluding multiple rounds of discussions within the government. The rupee also derived its strength from strong gains in the local equity markets as well as dollar's weakness against some currencies overseas. Traders overlooked Moody's Investors Service in its report has cut India growth forecast to 0.2 percent, from 2.5 percent projected in March for calendar year 2020. On the global front, dollar weakened broadly against its rivals on Wednesday, nearing a two-week low, as firmer stock markets prompted investors to seek higher-yielding currencies before the outcome of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting later in the day. Finally, the rupee ended at 75.66, 52 paise stronger from its previous close of 76.18 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4958.72 crore against gross selling of Rs 4909.51 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1091.12 crore with gross sales of Rs 1720.17 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 18.13 crore against gross selling of Rs 17.09 crore.

 

The US markets ended in green on Wednesday as hopes for an effective COVID-19 treatment prompted a broad rally and helped investors shrug off bleak GDP data. All the Asian markets are trading higher in early deals on Thursday tracking Wall Street's rally after positive trial results of an experimental COVID-19 treatment. Indian markets ended higher with solid gains on Wednesday amid hopes that the government will unveil another stimulus package this week to spur the economy. Today, the start of the F&O series expiry session is likely to be gap-up following the firm cues from global markets. Traders will be getting some encouragement with Niti Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant's statement that India's COVID-19 recovery rate has improved from 15% on April 19 to 24.56% as of April 29. Some support will also come with report that asserting that India was proud of its farmers, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the government was continuously taking steps to ensure the interests of those who feed the entire country were protected. He also said his government was committed to protect the rights of these anndataas (food providers). Traders may take note of report that Union labour and employment minister Santosh Kumar Gangwar will hold an interaction with trade unions and industry representatives to discuss ways to generate employment and restart economic activities, on the occasion of International Labour Day on May 1. Though, some cautiousness may be there with report that in India, the total coronavirus cases are nearing the 32,000-mark. The death toll, meanwhile, has climbed to 1,008. There will be some buzz in the infra stocks with the Finance Ministry's statement that to augment infrastructure and create jobs in the country, a government task force has projected total investment of Rs 111 lakh crore in infra projects over five years. Power stocks will be in focus with ICRA's report that demand for power is likely to fall by 1% in the current fiscal with discom losses widening by almost Rs 20,000 crore as the coronavirus lockdown continues to impact economic activities. There will be some reaction in aviation stocks with global airlines body IATA's statement that Indian domestic air passenger traffic fell by 11.8% in March as compared to the corresponding month last year, indicating the impact of Covid-19 on the country's aviation sector. There will be lots of earnings reaction based on the performance of the companies. 

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9,553.35

9,430.52

9,638.02

BSE Sensex

32,720.16

32,295.34

33,021.28

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

 

Support  (Rs)

 

Resistance (Rs)

 

(in Lacs)

Axis Bank

615.00

439.10

427.08

449.98

State Bank of India

574.71

190.10

185.13

193.43

Indusind Bank

473.08

471.10

446.40

492.40

Tata Motors

407.85

78.15

76.70

79.45

ICICI Bank

393.42

370.45

355.90

380.75

 

  • L&T has issued and allotted 25,000 7.70% Rated Listed Unsecured Redeemable NCDs of Rs 10 lakh each aggregating to Rs 2500 crore, on April 28, 2020, which will mature on April 28, 2025. 
  • Bajaj Finance, the lending and investing arm of Bajaj Finserv, is offering a Digital Health EMI Network Card.
  • Axis Bank has received approval to borrow/ raise funds in Indian Currency /Foreign Currency by issue of debt Instruments up to an amount of Rs 35,000 crore.
  • Reliance Industries' wholly-owned subsidiary -- Reliance Strategic Business Ventures has increased its stake in US-based SkyTran Inc.
News Analysis