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NSE Intra-day chart (27 April 2018)
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Market Commentary 30 April 2018
Markets likely to make positive start on ease in geopolitical worries

 

Bulls tightened their grip on Dalal Street with key gauges ending near their crucial 35,000 (Sensex) and 10,700 (Nifty) levels. Markets started the session on an optimistic note with private report stating that India's economic growth will accelerate to 7.2% in the current fiscal buoyed by manufacturing activity even as rising oil prices and high government debt remain a challenge. The agriculture sector is expected to grow higher than the estimated 2.1% in the current fiscal year on account of positive prospects on Rabi harvest and a normal monsoon. Markets traded jubilantly throughout the session as traders took encouragement with NITI Aayog's statement that 3.53 million (35.3 lakh) new jobs were generated between September 2017 and February this year. The EPFO data shows that from September 2017 to February 2018, 3.1 million (31.10 lakh) new payroll additions were made across all age groups. Adding to the optimism, Confederation of Indian Industry's (CII) president Rakesh Bharti Mittal said that demand in the economy is picking up and it is time private investment started flowing in. He added that India's economic environment started improving due to introduction of major reforms such as GST, Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, and fixed-term employment. Some support also came after global credit rating agency Fitch affirmed India's sovereign rating at BBB- with stable outlook, saying that the country's medium-term growth potential is strong. The agency added that India's rating balances a strong medium-term growth outlook and favourable external balances with weak fiscal finances and some lagging structural factors, including governance standards and a still-difficult, but improving, business environment. It projected India's growth at 7.3% in current the fiscal and further to 7.5% in 2019-20. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 256.10 points or 0.74% to 34,969.70, while the CNX Nifty was up by 74.50 points or 0.70% to 10,692.30.

 

The US markets ended the lackluster day of trade slightly in green, as traders digested a mixed batch of earnings news from several big-name companies. Uncertainty about the outlook for interest rates may also have kept traders on the sidelines. Traders took some support from the release of a Commerce Department report showing stronger than expected economic growth in the first quarter. The report showed GDP growth slowed to 2.3 percent in the first quarter from 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter, although the increase still exceeded economist estimates for 2.0 percent growth. The slowdown in GDP growth came as consumer spending rose by just 1.1 percent in the first quarter compared to the 4.0 percent jump seen in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, a reading on core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, showed that the pace of price growth surged up to 2.5 percent in the first quarter from 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter. A separate report from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment in the deteriorated by less than initially estimated in the month of April. The report said the consumer sentiment index for April was upwardly revised to 98.8 from the preliminary reading of 97.8. The upwardly revised reading exceeded economist estimates of 98.0 but still came in below the final March reading of 101.4. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 11.15 points or 0.05 percent to 24,311.19, however the Nasdaq gained 1.12 points or 0.02 percent to 7,119.80 and the S&P 500 was up by 2.97 points or 0.11 percent to 2,669.91.

 

Crude oil futures edged lower on Friday amid signs the U.S. shale boom will continue unabated. The number of land rigs drilling for oil in the United States is 825, up five from a week ago, according to Baker Hughes. However, downside remained capped by market expectations that the U.S. will abandon the Iran nuclear deal, leading the way for renewed sanctions on Tehran and the country's energy exports. Expectations that OPEC will extend its supply quota plan with Russia also gave some support to oil prices. The cartel will meet with Kremlin officials on June 23, a day after the OPEC regular meeting. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery fell 9 cents or 0.1 percent to settle at $68.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. July Brent crude gained 9 cents to settle at $73.79 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Extending gains for the second straight day, Indian rupee ended stronger against the US dollar on Friday, on continued selling of the US currency by banks and exporters. Traders took some solace with a private report stating that India's economic growth will accelerate to 7.2% in the current fiscal buoyed by manufacturing activity even as rising oil prices and high government debt remain a challenge. The agriculture sector is expected to grow higher than the estimated 2.1% in the current fiscal year on account of positive prospects on Rabi harvest and a normal monsoon. Besides, good going in the local equity markets too supported the domestic unit. On the global front, dollar edged higher on Friday and is on track to post its best weekly performance in more than 1-1/2 years as a spike in US Treasury yields prompted some investors to unwind some short bets against the dollar, especially against some emerging market currencies. Finally, the rupee ended at 66.65, 10 paise stronger from its previous close of 66.75 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7368.22 crore against gross selling of Rs 7710.16 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 852.05 crore with gross sales of Rs 3116.31 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, there was no buying and selling.

 

The US markets showed a lack of direction over the course of the trading day on Friday following the rally seen in the previous session. The major averages spent the day bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line before closing slightly in green. Asian stocks are trading higher on the last trading day of the month, as investors focused on a mix of ebbing geopolitical tensions, robust earnings and economic data. Indian stock markets rose notably on Friday on the back of positive global cues and optimism over the ongoing earnings season. Today, the markets are likely to make an optimistic start, as tensions in the Korean Peninsula eased after a spectacularly successful inter-Korean summit. Traders will take some encouragement with Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement that India's economy to grow by at least 7.5 per cent in 2018-19 on the back of improvement in investment cycle and capacity utilisation. The government should now concentrate on consolidating the reform initiatives undertaken in the last 47 months, he added. Some support will also come with report that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is withdrawing a restriction that limited foreign investors to only investing in government and corporate bonds with tenures of three years or more, a move that could bolster the domestic bond market. Traders will react on report that Fitch has kept India's rating unchanged with a stable outlook, saying the rating balances a strong medium-term growth outlook and favourable external balances with weak fiscal finances and some lagging structural factors, including governance standards and a still-difficult, but improving, business environment. Upbeat quarterly earnings from Reliance Industries (RIL) may also buoy investor sentiment. RIL posted its second highest quarterly profit for the March quarter even as gross refining margins came in below expectations. There will be some important earnings announcements too, to keep the markets buzzing.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10,692.30

10,653.30

10,725.55

BSE Sensex

34,969.70

34,787.83

35,108.47

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Axis Bank

588.59

539.20

499.27

561.12

Yes Bank

522.31

348.90

339.67

363.57

SBI

314.02

242.60

235.30

247.85

ICICI Bank

164.88

287.90

278.70

294.40

Reliance Industries

116.66

996.30

984.20

1,009.70

 

  • ITC has joined hands with NITI Aayog to train 2 lakh farmers in order to increase their income and raise productivity of major crops in 25 aspirational districts across seven states in the country by 2022.
  • The Competition Commission of India has given its approval to Tata Steel's acquisition of debt-ridden firm Bhushan Steel.
  • Infosys will establish its US Education Center in Indianapolis to train American workers and arm them with skills for the digital future.
  • Maruti Suzuki has reported a rise of 10.03% in its net profit at 1882.10 Rs crore for Q4FY18 as compared to Rs 1710.50 crore for Q4FY17.
News Analysis