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NSE Intra-day chart (28 September 2017)
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Market Commentary 29 September 2017
Markets to get a modestly positive start of the new series

Snapping seven days losing streak, Indian equity benchmarks ended the session with gain of over one third of a percent. However, domestic gauges truly depicted the choppiness of F&O expiry session, with frontline gauges swinging between green and red for most part of the day, as traders remained concerned with India Ratings' report that India's GDP growth estimate for the ongoing financial year 2017-18 is likely to come down to 6.7 per cent from 7.4 per cent earlier as "the combined effect of demonetisation and introduction of goods and services tax (GST) is proving to be more disruptive for the economy than was expected earlier". Separately, a poll enlightened that the Reserve Bank of India will hold policy steady at its October 4 meeting, and well past next year, amid weak economic growth and signs inflation may soon overshoot its target. Buying in last leg of trade comes as the saving grace for the markets and helped them to end in green terrain, as the traders settled their positions and covered shorts going to new series. Traders took some solace with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement that traders across the country are 'positive' about GST and accepting the new taxation arrangement but they need 'handholding' so that their problems can be resolved. He urged the chief secretaries to use the district administration in this regard, so that small traders are facilitated to access and adopt the new system. Adding to the optimism, Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar said that the economic downturn which began in the last two years of UPA II regime has bottomed out and the growth will improve in the next two quarters. Investors also took support with private report highlighting that India is expected to be a $6 trillion economy -- the third largest in the world -- in the next 10 years, majorly helped by digitization. According to global brokerage firm, India's digitisation drive would provide a boost of 50-75 basis points to GDP growth in the coming decade. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 122.67 points or 0.39% to 31,282.48, while the CNX Nifty was up by 33.20 points or 0.34% to 9,768.95.


The US markets closed slightly higher on Thursday, but the advance was enough to record a trio of all-time highs for three closely followed benchmarks: the Russell 2000, Dow transports and the S&P 500. The Trump administration's tax-overhaul proposal continued to fuel some buying appetite for equities. The latest economic data painted a mixed picture of the economy. US Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman Stanley Fischer said it was important for the central bank to reverse its massive bond buying program, given that it had previously said they were a temporary measure. Fischer also said he thought the Fed was communicating its policy intentions and its commitment to tighten policy better now than in 2013, when concern about reduced stimulus led to a jump in bond yields known as the 'taper tantrum'. On the economy front, the US economy's pace of growth in the second quarter was raised to 3.1% from 3% under the government's latest revisions to gross domestic product. The value of inventories rose by $5.5 billion, stronger than previously reported. The increase in consumer spending was unchanged at 3.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 40.49 points or 0.18 percent to 22,381.20, the Nasdaq gained 0.19 points to 6,453.45, and the S&P 500 edged higher by 3.02 points or 0.12 percent to 2,510.06. 


Crude oil futures turned lower on Thursday, as investors appeared to take profit on the recent rally which has seen oil prices hit multi-month highs on expectations that higher global demand would nudge the market closer toward rebalancing. Traders unwound some of their bullish bets on crude but sentiment on oil remained positive following inventory data on Wednesday showing a surprise draw in crude oil supplies. Also, the geopolitical tensions, limited downside momentum as Turkey vowed to deal only with the Iraqi government on crude oil exports after Iraqi Kurdistan voted overwhelmingly in favour of independence earlier this week. Benchmark crude oil futures for November delivery ended lower by $0.58 or 1.1 percent at $51.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for November delivery lost 0.78 percent to $57.17 a barrel on the ICE.


Snapping its three days losing string, Indian rupee bounced back against dollar on Thursday on dollar selling by exporters and banks, while last hour recovery in local equity markets also influenced the rupee sentiment. Investors remained optimistic with the Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement that the economic downturn which began in the last two years of UPA II regime has bottomed out and the growth will improve in the next two quarters. Some comfort also came with private report highlighting that India is expected to be a $6 trillion economy -- the third largest in the world -- in the next 10 years, majorly helped by digitization. Besides, dollar struggled against some other currencies overseas too helped rupee to recover. On the global front, dollar consolidated gains after hitting a one-month high on Thursday against a basket of currencies as U.S. Treasury yields rose, prompting investors to unwind some of their dollar shorts. Finally, the rupee ended at 65.51, 19 paise stronger from its previous close of 65.70 on Wednesday.


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5719.92 crore against gross selling of Rs 6238.16 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1519.51 crore with gross sales of Rs 1563.66 crore.


The US markets ended modestly higher in last session , though the trade remained lackluster with the major averages spending much of the day on opposite sides of the unchanged line. The Asian markets are mostly in green though there is some cautiousness too, as the chances of higher U.S. interest rates by the end of the year now sit at about 65 percent. Japanese market was down as the country's inflation rose the most in more than two years in August and advanced for an eighth month. The Indian markets snapped their losing streak in the last session supported by some late hour short covering due to F&O series expiry. Today, the start of the new series is likely to be in green on positive global cues. Traders will also be getting some support with statement of Niti Aayog member Bibek Debroy, who is also Chairman of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council that while there may be some minor problems with the economy, it was nothing to be worried about. However, there will be some cautiousness too, as a report from credit rating agency Icra has said that Reserve Bank is likely to leave policy rates unchanged in the forthcoming policy review next month as it expects a spike in retail inflation going ahead. Meanwhile, the Centre plans to borrow Rs 2.08 lakh crore from the market in the second half of 2017-18, reiterating the government's commitment to meet the fiscal deficit target of 3.2 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP). The export oriented stocks will keep buzzing as the Industry bodies and exporters raised their concerns related to the Goods and Services Tax (GST), including timely refund of duties, with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley at a meeting. FIEO pressed for exemption from GST for merchant exporters, immediate start of the refund process with exporters facing liquidity issues and allowing export benefit scrips for payment of IGST and CGST.


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  • ONGC may sell its holding in Indian Oil Corporation and GAIL to fund Rs 33,000 crore acquisition of HPCL.
  • Dr. Reddy's Laboratories has received an EIR for its Formulation Srikakulam Plant Unit I, Andhra Pradesh from the USFDA.
  • NTPC will commence commercial operation of 500 MW Unit 1 of Feroze Gandhi Unchahar Thermal Power Station, Stage-IV (1 X 500 MW) from September 30, 2017.
  • ICICI Bank has unveiled a new home loan 'Cashback', which offers borrowers the benefit of 1% cashback on every EMI, for the entire tenure of the loan.
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