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NSE Intra-day chart (22 November 2019)
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Market Commentary 25 November 2019
Benchmarks to open slightly in green amid positive global cues


Bears tightened their grip on Dalal Street on the last trading day of the week, with Sensex and Nifty ending lower by over 200 and 50 points, respectively.  After a cautious start, key benchmarks remained negative throughout the day, as credit rating agency ICRA expects further deterioration in the growth of India's GDP to 4.7 per cent in Q2 of FY2020, due to weakening momentum in industry. Adding more worries among investors, Former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor C Rangarajan said that reaching the $5-trillion Gross Domestic Product (GDP) target by 2025 is simply out of question at the current growth rate. Indices extended their losses in the second half of the session, despite positive cues from global markets. The street remained pessimistic with a report that merger & acquisition (M&A) deals in the month of October dropped by 45 percent in value terms and 40 percent in volume terms compared to the corresponding period last year.  Traders paid no heed towards the Confederation of Indian Industry's (CII) jointly survey report, conducted along with Grant Thornton, that over 95 percent of businesses believe that good corporate governance practices help organizations achieve better operational and financial results. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 215.76 points or 0.53% to 40,359.41, while the CNX Nifty was down by 54.00 points or 0.45% to 11,914.40.


The US markets ended higher on Friday following report that President Donald Trump has said a trade agreement with China is very close and that the two economic superpowers have a very good chance to make a deal. Earlier, President Xi had injected some measure of hope into a market that has grown more uncertain about a partial US-China trade deal materializing. Xi said we want to work for a Phase 1 agreement on the basis of mutual respect and equality. He was quoted as saying, during a forum in Beijing attended by a delegation of foreigners. China's chief trade negotiator Liu He remained optimistic about striking a trade deal and invited his US counterparts for more talks. On the economic data front, with consumers more optimistic about the future than previously estimated, the University of Michigan released a report showing a much bigger than expected upward revision to its reading on US consumer sentiment in the month of November. The report said the consumer sentiment index for November was upwardly revised to 96.8 from the preliminary reading of 95.7. The revised reading is well above the final October reading of 95.5. The stronger than previously estimated improvement in consumer sentiment came as the index of consumer expectations for November was upwardly revised to 87.3 from 85.9. The index came in at 84.2 in October. The current economic conditions index was also upwardly revised to 111.6 from 110.9 but is still down from 113.2 in the previous month.


Crude oil futures ended lower on Friday with traders taking some profits following recent gains. Concerns over the delay in the US and China closing in on an interim trade deal, and worries about energy demand outlook due to global economic slowdown weighed on oil prices.  However, Baker Hughes reported a fifth consecutive weekly decline in the US oil-rig count. The number of active US rigs drilling for oil fell by 3 to 671 this week. The front-month US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract ended 0.1% lower for the week, while Brent, the global benchmark, saw weekly gain of roughly 0.1% weekly gain. Benchmark crude oil futures for January fell 81 cents or 1.4 percent to settle at $57.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. January Brent dropped 58 cents or 0.9 percent to settle at $63.39 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee ended marginally higher against dollar on Friday, on selling of dollars by banks and exporters. Traders took some support with report that India and the United States are in talks to resolve trade issues and both New Delhi and Washington hope to find an early solution. However, further gains got restricted as ratings agency ICRA expects India's growth rate to further slowdown to 4.7% in second quarter ended September 30, 2019, amid subdued domestic demand and weak investment activity. On the global front, dollar was marginally down on Friday and risk appetite boosted by statements from China on the need to find a solution to the tit-for-tat tariff war with the United States, raising hopes that a phase one deal could be reached. Finally, the rupee ended at 71.71, 5 paise stronger from its previous close of 71.76 on Thursday.


The FIIs as per Friday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 10310.04 crore against gross selling of Rs 5303.96 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 731.93 crore with gross sales of Rs 1054.43 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4.44 crore against gross selling of Rs 56.03 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Friday after Chinese President Xi Jinping called for Beijing and Washington to strengthen communications, but still lost ground for the week. Asian markets are trading in green on Monday after the US and China made positive comments on the trade deal. Indian markets ended lower for second straight session on Friday as investors exercised caution and avoided long positions amid mixed global cues. Today, the start of the crucial F&O series expiry week is likely to be slightly in green following positive global cues. Investors will be looking ahead to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data due later in the week. Traders will be taking some encouragement with data showing that after declining for four consecutive months, investments through participatory notes (P-notes) in the Indian capital market marginally rose to Rs 76,773 crore at the end of October. Some support will come with a survey by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showing that urban unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level in four quarters at 9.3 per cent during January-March 2019. Also, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed that India's forex reserves rose by $441 million to a fresh lifetime high of $448.249 billion in the week to November 15 on an increase in core currency assets. However, there may be some cautiousness as the government raised concerns over fake invoices being generated in the business-to-business (B2B) segment which is impacting GST collections. Also, traders may be concern with CARE Ratings' report that the ongoing growth slowdown is taking a toll on investments, as fresh funding for projects fell to a 15 year low in the first half of FY20. Traders may take note of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das' statement that there is a great need to institutionalize state finance commissions and helping the local bodies enhance their revenue generation capacities. Meanwhile, the government plans to amend the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) to provide immunity to companies taking over stressed assets from prosecution for financial crimes committed by erstwhile promoters. This will help make the insolvency process more attractive for the bidders and instill confidence in them. There will be some buzz in the banking stocks with Deputy Governor N S Vishwanathan's statement that the Reserve Bank is looking at introducing new rules on corporate governance for banks in sync with global ones, and would also like lenders to disclose more. There will be some reaction in oil stocks with report that the government may end the cross-holding structure existing in the oil sector as it looks to further consolidate operations of public sector enterprises and go ahead with its privatization plan by getting a fair valuation of assets.


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