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NSE Intra-day chart (21 November 2019)
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Market Commentary 22 November 2019
Markets to open marginally in red amid rise in crude oil prices


Indian equity bourses ended the highly volatile day near their intraday low points. The start of the day was slightly higher, amid the retirement fund body, Employment Provident Fund Organisation's (EPFO) latest Provisional Estimate of Net Payroll data report showing that India created 9,98,051 new jobs in the month of September 2019 as against revised figure of 9,41,800 in August 2019. As per the report, the maximum jobs were created in the age bracket of 22-25. But soon, markets turned volatile, impacted by a private report stating that India's economic growth probably hit a new low last quarter, with early forecasts showing expansion below 5%. In the last hour of the trading session, key markets extended their losses to settle in negative terrain, on the back of weak cues from the global markets. Investors remained anxious with the Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that the government did not join the mega free trade agreement RCEP as the grouping did not address the outstanding issues and concerns of India. The street paid no heed towards the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) latest data report stating that bank credit rose by 8.07 percent to Rs 98.47 trillion, while deposits grew 9.92 percent to Rs 129.98 trillion in the fortnight ended November 6. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 76.47 points or 0.19% to 40,575.17, while the CNX Nifty was down by 30.70 points or 0.26% to 11,968.40.


The US markets ended lower on Thursday after investors digested mixed headlines on the progress of trade negotiations, with reports saying that China had invited American negotiators to Beijing for face-to-face talks, even though the US Congress passed a bill supporting protesters in Hong Kong late Wednesday. Liu voiced optimism over a phase-one trade deal at a dinner in Beijing, though Liu also said he was confused about trade demands by the US, but believes an agreement will be reached. Thursday marked the third consecutive losing session for both the Dow and S&P 500, while the Nasdaq closed lower for the second day in a row. On the economic data front, existing home sales in the US rebounded by more than expected in the month of October, according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). NAR said existing home sales jumped by 1.9 percent to an annual rate of 5.46 million in October after tumbling by 2.5 percent to a revised rate of 5.360 million in September. Street had expected existing home sales to surge up by 1.4 percent compared to the 2.2 percent slump originally reported for the previous month. Besides, the Labor Department released a report showing first-time claims for US unemployment benefits came in unchanged in the week ended November 16. The report said initial jobless claims came in at 227,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. Street had expected jobless claims to dip to 219,000 from the 225,000 originally reported for the previous week. With the unchanged figure, jobless claims are hovering at their highest level since hitting 229,000 in the week ended June 22. Meanwhile, the Labor Department said the less volatile four-week moving average rose to 221,000, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average of 217,500.


Magnifying their previous session's gains, the crude oil futures ended higher on Thursday, finding support from a report that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies are likely to extend production cuts. OPEC and its allies, including Russia, are likely to agree to extend crude production cuts until mid-2020 when they meet next month. An existing agreement on output curbs runs through March 2020. OPEC and its allies will meet on December 5 and December 6 in Vienna. Besides, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that domestic supplies of natural gas fell by 94 billion cubic feet for the week ended November 8. Benchmark crude oil futures for January surged $1.57 or 2.8 percent to settle at $58.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. January Brent rose $1.57 or 2.5 percent to settle at $63.97 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee ended tad higher against dollar on Thursday, owing to dollar sale by exporters and banks. Traders took support with the retirement fund body, Employment Provident Fund Organisation's (EPFO) latest Provisional Estimate of Net Payroll data report showing that India created 9,98,051 new jobs in the month of September 2019 as against revised figure of 9,41,800 in August 2019. Moreover, dollar losing sheen against some other currencies overseas supported the rupee. However, lackluster trade in local equity markets weighed on the rupee. On the global front, dollar was weaker against other major currencies on Thursday, with investors fixated on the latest developments in a bitter 16-month long trade dispute between the United States and China that has dealt a blow to the world economy. Finally, the rupee ended at 71.76, 5 paise stronger from its previous close of 71.81 on Wednesday.


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5793.99 crore against gross selling of Rs 5366.03 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 978.36 crore with gross sales of Rs 3408.58 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 175.15 crore against gross selling of Rs 118.72 crore.


The US markets ended lower on Thursday as investors remained on sidelines on no concrete signs of progress on US-China relations. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Friday, bouncing from a three-week low touched a day earlier, but gains were capped by persistent worries over the status of trade negotiations between China and US. Indian markets ended volatile session in red territory with marginal cut on Thursday as investors booked profits and avoided long positions amid tepid global cues. Today, the start of session is likely to be flat-to-negative amid rise in crude oil prices. There will be some cautiousness as ratings agency ICRA expects India's growth rate to further slowdown to 4.7% in second quarter ended September 30, 2019, amid subdued domestic demand and weak investment activity. Also, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) marginally cut India's economic growth forecast for 2019 to 5.8%. Traders will be concerned with report that claiming that India will need another 22 years of sustained growth to become a developed country, former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor C Rangarajan said that at the current growth rate, India becoming a $5 trillion economy by 2025 is simply out of question. However, markets participants may take some support later in the day with positive leads from Asian peers. Traders may take note of report that India and the United States are in talks to resolve trade issues and both New Delhi and Washington hope to find an early solution. Besides, markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has asked listed companies to disclose any loan default within 24 hours of any failure to repay principal or interest amount to banks or financial institutions beyond 30 days. The decision is aimed at addressing the gaps in the availability of information to investors. There will be some buzz in the banking stocks with the Finance Ministry's statement that public sector banks disbursed a record Rs 2.52 lakh crore of loans during the festive month of October. There will be some reaction in infra stocks with the government's statement that 566 national highway projects are running behind schedule and no project has been put on hold. Meanwhile, CSB Bank's initial public offering (IPO) will open for subscription on November 22 and has a price band of Rs 193 to Rs 195 per share.


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