Indian equity markets extended
their southward journey for second straight session on Friday, as both the
larger peers -- Sensex and Nifty closed with the losses of around 1.50% each.
Key indices made a slightly positive start of the day, aided with Finance
Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that the tax proposals in the Finance
Bill 2019 are aimed at improving the ease of living and reducing pain of the
citizens. Nirmala Sitharaman also said that budget proposals will promote Make
in India and digital payment. Adding some relief, NITI Aayog Vice Chairman
Rajiv Kumar said that the focus of the second term of the Narendra Modi
government is accelerated economic growth led by the private sector and private
enterprise. But, markets soon lost all of their gains to remain negative for
the whole day, after the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) report showed that
India's current account (CA) balance deficit grew to $68 billion in 2018-19
from $49 billion the previous year, and it said the deficit was justified by
development needs. Market participants remained cautious, as sticking to his
analysis that India's economic growth has been overestimated, Arvind
Subramanian said he had raised doubts about the GDP numbers in 2015 when he was
the chief economic adviser of the Modi government as he found inconsistency
between projected growth and other macro indicators. Finally, the BSE Sensex
lost 560.45 points or 1.44% to 38,337.01, while the CNX Nifty was down by
177.65 points or 1.53% to 11,419.25.
The US markets failed to maintain
early gains and ended in red on Friday following a report that Federal Reserve
officials would cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point rate cut at
the end of the month, rather than a half-point move, and after Iran said it
seized a British-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The initial
strength in Wall Street partly reflected a positive reaction to upbeat earnings
news from Microsoft (MSFT), as the software giant reported fiscal fourth
quarter results that exceeded street estimates on both the top and bottom
lines. However, some cautiousness prevailed in the markets after The Wall
Street Journal (paywall) reported that Fed officials, based on recent public
statements and interviews, signaled they were ready to cut rates by a
quarter-percentage point at their July 30-31 meeting, but weren't prepared to
make a half-point reduction. Besides, Iran said it seized oil vessels in the
Strait of Hormuz, heightening tensions in the region a day after President
Donald Trump said a U.S. Naval ship shot down an Iranian drone. On the economic
front, the University of Michigan released a report showing a slight
improvement in US consumer sentiment in the month of July. The preliminary
report showed the consumer sentiment index inched up to 98.4 in July from the
final June reading of 98.2. Street had expected the index to edge up to 98.5.
Meanwhile, traders are looking ahead to the on reports on new and existing home
sales, durable goods orders and second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in
the next week. Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 68.77 points or 0.25
percent to 27154.20, Nasdaq declined 60.75 points or 0.74 percent to 8146.49
and S&P 500 was down by 18.50 points or 0.62 percent to 2976.61.
Crude oil futures settled
marginally higher on Friday amid rising tensions in the Middle East after the
US Navy shot down an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz. The US President
Donald Trump told that the USS Boxer took defensive action after the Iranian
drone moved close to within 1,000 yards of the amphibious assault ship and
ignored multiple calls to stand down. Besides, report that the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard has seized a U.K.-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman
also supported oil prices. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency has
reduced its 2019 oil demand forecast to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd).
Benchmark crude oil futures for August gained 33 cents or 0.6 percent to settle
at $55.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. September Brent rose 54
cents or 0.9 percent to settle at $62.47 a barrel on London's Intercontinental
Exchange.
Snapping three day losing streak, Indian rupee staged a
recovery against dollar on Friday, following dollar selling from banks and
exporters. Sentiments turned optimistic with NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv
Kumar's statement that the focus of the second term of the Narendra Modi
government is accelerated economic growth led by the private sector and private
enterprise. He asserted that India will be at the cusp of a major
transformation over the next five years. However, heavy losses in the domestic
equity market along with dollar's strength against major global currencies
overseas restricted the local unit's further up move. On the global front, euro
fell against a rebounding US dollar on Friday, as investors ramped up bets for
a European Central Bank interest rate cut as early as next week. Finally, the
rupee ended at 68.80, 17 paise stronger from its previous close of 68.97 on
Thursday.
The
FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments. In
equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4118.07 crore against gross selling
of Rs 5519.61 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2114.63
crore with gross sales of Rs 3129.43 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the
gross buying was of Rs 2.16 crore against gross selling of Rs 1.45 crore.
The US markets ended lower on
Friday as geopolitical worries overshadowed the hopes of interest rate cuts by
the Federal Reserve. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Monday as
investors reduced expectations of an aggressive interest rate cut by the
Federal Reserve, while heightened Middle East tensions following an Iranian
seizure of a British tanker lifted crude oil prices. Indian markets went
through a disappointing day of trade on Friday, with benchmark indices losing
over a per cent each on account of heavy selloff by the FIIs amid disappointing
earnings and reports of slowing economic growth. Today, the markets are likely
to make slightly negative start of the new week, amid weakness in Asian peers.
There will be some cautiousness with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data
showing that after touching record highs, the foreign exchange reserves
declined by $1.113 billion to $428.797 billion in the week to July 12 - the
first fall after four consecutive weeks of gains - due to a fall in foreign
currency assets. However, some respite may come later in the day as Asian
Development Bank (ADB) lowered the inflation forecast for India during the
current financial year by 0.2 percentage points to 4.1 percent, on the back of
gain in rupee and cut in the country's GDP projection. Traders may take note of
the Confederation of Indian Industry's (CII) statement that India needs to
speedily boost a variety of exports ranging from women's apparel, drugs and
furniture to cyclic hydrocarbons, at a time when global trade growth continues
to shrink. Meanwhile, SEBI has tweaked the formats for limited review and audit
report of listed entities in order to align them with the revised auditing
standards. This will also be applicable to entities whose accounts are to be
consolidated with the listed entity. There will be some buzz in the Auto stocks
as the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council, chaired by Finance Minister
Nirmala Sitharaman, will meet on July 25 and decide on lowering tax rates for
electric vehicles. GST rate for petrol and diesel cars and hybrid vehicles is
already at the highest bracket of 28 per cent plus cess. There will be some
reaction in banking stocks as Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das
asked state-owned banks to follow the new framework for resolution of stressed
assets as well as to speed up the recovery process. Also, there will some buzz
in aviation stocks with the monthly data from regulator DGCA showing that
domestic air passenger traffic rose 6.19 percent in June over the year-ago
period, with local carriers flying 12.02 million passengers in the month. There
will be lots of earnings reaction based on the performance of the companies, to
keep the markets in action.
Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE Nifty
|
11,419.25
|
11,332.25
|
11,573.30
|
BSE Sensex
|
38,337.01
|
38,052.66
|
38,840.04
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in
Lacs)
|
Yes Bank
|
1,458.64
|
83.25
|
81.60
|
85.90
|
NTPC
|
338.40
|
129.90
|
126.97
|
131.92
|
ONGC
|
256.60
|
143.90
|
140.93
|
146.33
|
SBI
|
222.13
|
356.00
|
352.08
|
362.98
|
Coal India
|
191.00
|
221.90
|
218.18
|
224.83
|
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