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NSE Intra-day chart (17 April 2020)
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Market Commentary 20 April 2020
Markets to open in red amid weak cues from Asian peers

 

Indian equity benchmarks traded in green terrain throughout the day and saw a strong relief rally in final hour of trade which helped to close the session at intraday high levels on Friday. With that, the markets extended their gaining streak for the second straight session, recapturing their crucial 31,550 (Sensex) and 9,250 (Nifty) bastions. Key indices staged a gap up opening, taking cues from gains in global markets. Sentiments remained up-beat with report that Prime Minister Narendra Modi reviewed the impact of COVID-19 on the Indian economy and a possible second stimulus to boost sectors hit hard by the pandemic. Modi held discussions with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman as the pandemic hit sectors from small industries to the aviation sector hard with millions of jobs at stake. However, markets gave up some of gains in noon trading, as some concern came with SBI Research's Ecowrap report that India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth may slide to 1.1% in the current financial year (FY21), due to the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on the economy. Though, benchmark indices witnessed a sharp surge to reach at fresh intraday high points in last leg of trade, as investors' sentiment was buoyed after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a slew of measures to infuse liquidity in the financial system including a cut in the reverse repo rate, Rs 50,000-crore targeted long-term repo operations (TLTRO) and refinancing facilities for Nabard, Sidbi and NHB. In order to encourage banks to deploy these surplus funds in investments and loans in productive sectors of the economy, it has been decided to reduce the fixed rate reverse repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points from 4 percent to 3.75 percent with immediate effect. Markets were also supported by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das' statement that there are a few slivers of brightness amidst the encircling gloom and hoped that India will stage a sharp V-shaped recovery in 2021-22 as projected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 986.11 points or 3.22% to 31,588.72, while the CNX Nifty was up by 273.95 points or 3.05% to 9,266.75.

 

The US markets ended higher on Friday as investors' sentiment was buoyed by report of a possible treatment for the COVID-19 disease and Trump administration announced guidelines for reopening the economy. Support for markets was attributed to a report from health-care media site Stat report that indicated promising results for a drug used to treat COVID-19, the disease that has claimed more than 140,000 lives around the globe and forced the closure of much of the US and global economy in an effort to contain it. University of Chicago Medicine researchers saw rapid recoveries in 125 patients suffering from COVID-19 who were taking Gilead Sciences Inc.'s experimental drug remdesivir as part of a clinical trial. The National Institutes of Health published a media advisory announcing the results of a study showing the drug effective in treating monkeys infected with COVID-19. Meanwhile, traders shrugged off a report from the Conference Board showing its index of leading US economic indicators registered the largest decline in its 60-year history in the month of March. The Conference Board said its leading economic index plunged by 6.7 percent in March after dipping by a revised 0.2 percent in February. Street had expected the index to plummet by 7.0 percent compared to the 0.1 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Friday as huge crude stockpile and continued concerns about the outlook for near to medium-term energy demand weighed heavily on the commodity. Although, a report about a potential remedy to the coronavirus infection and the US President's plans to ease restrictions on lockdown in the country and re-open the economy in a phased manner lifted global stock markets up sharply, worries about China's sagging economy sent oil prices crashing. For the week, West Texas Intermediate crude was down roughly 19.7%. Brent crude fell 10.8%. Crude oil futures for May dropped $1.60 or 8.1 percent to settle at $18.27a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, June Brent crude gained 26 cents or 0.9 percent to settle at $28.08 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Reversing its two-session fall, Indian rupee bounced back to end higher against the US currency on Friday, on persistent selling of the American currency by exporters. Sentiments turned optimistic as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has unveiled further measures to maintain adequate liquidity in the system with an aim to deal with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. RBI has decided to reduce the fixed rate reverse repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points (bps) from 4.0 per cent to 3.75 per cent with immediate effect. Buying in the domestic equity market along with dollar losing sheen against some other currencies overseas further supported sentiment in the forex market. On the global front, dollar fell on Friday as a report on signs of success in a Covid-19 treatment drug trial as well as early plans to re-open the US economy drove fresh optimism and risk appetite. Finally, the rupee ended at 76.39, 48 paise stronger from its previous close of 76.87 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6856.98 crore against gross selling of Rs 9447.73 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 479.80 crore with gross sales of Rs 1729.36 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 16.09 crore against gross selling of Rs 10.02 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Friday following a report of promising early data related to a potential coronavirus treatment from Gilead Sciences (GILD). Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday as investors awaited the release of China's loan prime rate, which is set to be out, with a cut expected by traders. Indian markets ended higher on Friday after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced another round of measures to help fight liquidity crisis amid coronavirus lockdown. Today, the start of new week is likely to be pessimistic amid weak cues from Asian peers. Investors are also eyeing Q4 result for the Infosys which is slated to be out later in the day. Traders will be concerned with report that expecting a major global recession due to the coronavirus pandemic, the World Bank said that its estimates suggest a much deeper economic downturn than the 2007-09 Great Recession. Rising coronavirus cases in India also is likely to impact investors' sentiment. The total number of confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) infection in India crossed topped 16,000 on April19, while the death toll crossed the 500-mark as well. Also, there will be some cautiousness as the government is unlikely to exempt GST on medical items like ventilators, PPEs, masks, test kits and sanitisers, as it would lead to blocked input tax credit (ITC), thereby increasing the cost of manufacturing and increase the price for consumers. Besides, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn a net Rs 12,650 crore from the Indian capital markets between April 01-17 amid the coronavirus crisis. Though, in the country, lockdown will be eased in areas with no new cases for coronavirus, as said by the government earlier. This could bring some relief amongst investors. Some support will come with report that to curb opportunistic takeovers or acquisitions of Indian companies due to the current COVID-19 pandemic, the government has amended the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) policy 2017. According to new revised policy, an entity of a country, which shares land border with India or where the beneficial owner of an investment into India is situated in or is a citizen of any such country, can invest only under the government route. There will be some buzz in the power stocks with a private report that the Union Cabinet is likely to approve a package for discoms reeling under revenue loss due to lower power demand amid the coronavirus lockdown, including setting up of an alternative investment fund to pay off their dues towards electricity generation companies. Metal stocks will be in focus as the Indian Steel Association (ISA), which represents major public and private sector steel companies, forecast that steel demand would contract 7.7% in 2020 in the wake of measures taken to contain the spread of Covid-19 pandemic.   

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9,266.75

9,285.83

9,285.83

BSE Sensex

31,588.72

31,126.86

31,884.65

                                                 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

 

Support  (Rs)

 

Resistance (Rs)

 

(in Lacs)

State Bank of India

898.58

193.25

187.03

198.73

ICICI Bank

690.08

375.55

354.57

391.02

Tata Motors

583.36

76.85

74.93

78.53

Axis Bank

478.32

478.80

445.50

499.00

Vedanta

301.77

84.10

82.30

86.45

 

  • Kotak Mahindra Bank has launched its first ATM on Wheels facility in Mumbai. 
  • Larsen & Toubro's construction arm -- L&T construction has bagged orders from prestigious clients in India for buildings & factories business. 
  • NTPC is providing continuous power to the country while abiding with all the guidelines set by the Government of India as well as state governments regarding lockdown and social distancing. 
  • Tata Steel has received approval from Committee of Directors to raise Rs 1,025 crore on private placement basis.
News Analysis