Last hour rally helped Indian
equity markets to end Thursday's session near their intraday high points, with
Sensex & Nifty reclaiming their crucial psychological levels of 39,000 and
11,550, respectively. After a cautious start, indices remained flat for the
first half of the session, impacted by a report that the Securities and
Exchange Board of India is planning to further tighten rules for participatory
notes (P-notes), offshore derivative instruments issued by brokers to foreign
investors not registered in the country. Sentiments also got hit, after latest
data of Reserve Bank of India showed that credit growth at Indian banks has
dropped to its lowest level in nearly two years, as slowing domestic
consumption weighs on demand. However, key benchmarks gained traction in the
second half of the trading session, tracking firm European markets. Market
participants took support with Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's
statement that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision of making India a
$5-trillion economy and a global economic powerhouse by 2024-25 is challenging
but realisable and underlined that more reforms are on the anvil before the end
of the fiscal year. Traders also got comfort with a private report stating that
the digital payment system that has been developed in India not only allows big
tech companies to participate in it but also has convenience, ease of use, low
cost and financial inclusion. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 453.07 points or
1.17% to 39,052.06, while the CNX Nifty was up by 122.35 points or 1.07% to
11,586.35.
The US markets ended marginally
higher on Thursday as investors drew optimism from a Brexit draft agreement and
upbeat third-quarter results from U.S. companies such as Netflix and Morgan
Stanley. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker described the deal
as fair and balanced for the EU and the UK and urged member nations to back the
agreement. The deal could eliminate some of the Brexit uncertainty hanging over
the global markets, although it remains to be seen if the agreement will be
approved by UK lawmakers. However, upside remain capped as the Federal Reserve
released a report showing a bigger than expected decrease in industrial
production, with the strike at General Motors (GM) contributing to a drop in
manufacturing output. The Fed said industrial production fell by 0.4 percent in
September after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.8 percent in August. Street
had expected production to edge down by 0.1 percent compared to the 0.6 percent
increase originally reported for the previous month. Meanwhile, after reporting
a substantial increase in new residential construction in the previous month,
the Commerce Department released a report showing a sharp pullback in US
housing starts in the month of September. The Commerce Department said housing
starts plunged by 9.4 percent to an annual rate of 1.256 million in September
after soaring by 15.1 percent to a revised 1.386 million in August. Street had
expected housing starts to drop by 3.2 percent to an annual rate of 1.320
million from the 1.364 million originally reported for the previous month.
Besides, first-time claims for US unemployment benefits saw a modest increase
in the week ended October 12, according to a report released by the Labor
Department. The report said initial jobless claims edged up to 214,000, an
increase of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 210,000. Street
had expected jobless claims to inch up to 215,000.
Crude oil futures ended higher on
Thursday on account of the development on the Brexit front, where the UK and
the European Union have reached an agreement on a draft deal for the UK's exit
from the EU. Some support also came in as the US and Turkey reached a
cease-fire pact in Syria, temporarily easing Middle East tensions. However, the
Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude supplies climbed
for a fifth week in a row, by 9.3 million barrels for the week ended October
11. Data were released a day late because of Monday's US Columbus Day holiday.
The American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday reported a climb of 10.5 million
barrels. Benchmark crude oil futures for November surged 57 cents or 1.1
percent to settle at $53.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
December Brent rose 49 cents or 0.8 percent to settle at $59.91 a barrel on
London's Intercontinental Exchange.
In line
with equity market, Indian rupee ended stronger against dollar on Thursday, due
to increased selling of the American currency by banks and exporters. Local
currency got support with Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that
more reforms are on the anvil this fiscal to boost growth as fresh economic
data and subdued corporate earnings point to a deeper economic downturn.
Traders also took a note of report that Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) K V
Subramanian called upon the industry to start making investments, stressing
that the fundamentals of Indian economy are very strong. He noted that
fundamentals of the economy have not changed and it would be back on the 7-8
percent growth path. Besides, the dollar losing muscle against other currencies
overseas helped the domestic currency rebound. On the global front, euro
rallied to its highest levels in nearly two months against the dollar on
Thursday after the European Union and Britain struck a Brexit deal. Finally,
the rupee ended at 71.16, 27 paise stronger from its previous close of 71.43 on
Wednesday.
The
FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segments.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5779.02 crore against gross
selling of Rs 4882.40 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was
of Rs 1541.68 crore with gross sales of Rs 1157.17 crore. Besides, in the
hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 25.66 crore against gross selling of
Rs 20.91 crore.
The US markets ended higher on
Thursday, after a draft Brexit deal was struck between UK and EU officials, and
on the back of solid earnings from more blue-chip companies. Asian markets are
trading mostly in green on Friday, tracking gains on Wall Street, but upside
remained limited amid concern that the Chinese economy is likely to show weaker
growth. Indian markets extended their northward journey for fifth straight
session and ended higher on Thursday on account of strong global cues. Today, the
start of session is likely to be marginally in red amid rise in crude oil
prices. Investors will be looking ahead to the market heavy weight Reliance
Industries' Q2 numbers to be released later in the day, the company is likely
to report decent profit growth in September quarter earnings. There will be
some cautiousness with the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) statement that
though India has worked on the fundamentals of its economy, there are problems,
including the long-term drivers of growth that need to be addressed. It said in
India, what is critically important is to continue with addressing the
long-term drivers of growth. Investment in human capital in India is a top
priority. It has to continue bringing women in the labour force. It is very important.
Also, traders will be concerned with report that India is likely to miss its
fiscal deficit target of 3.3% of gross domestic product for the current
financial year by 30-50 basis points, due to the sharp slowdown in the economy
that has severely crimped tax collection goals. However, investors may take
some support later in the day, amid positive global cues. Some support may also
come with Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that investors
can find no better place in the world than India that has a democracy loving
and capitalist respecting environment. She added that the government was
continuously working to bring reforms. Market participant may take note on
report that PM Narendra Modi asserted that his government was on course to make
India a five-trillion-dollar economy in the next five years despite
apprehensions being expressed by experts and the opposition. Aviation stocks
will be in focus with the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) data
showing that domestic air passenger traffic declined for the fourth consecutive
month in September, amid a slowing economy and lean travel season. There will
be some reaction in FMCG stocks with a private report that the fast-moving
consumer goods (FMCG) manufacturers would witness even softer growth in the
October-December 2019 period. As per the report, growth in Q4CY19 could be in
the range of 6.5-7.5%. There will be some buzz in the jewellery stocks with
Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council's (GJEPC) statement that the overall
gems and jewellery exports is expected to decline of 5-10% in this financial
year on the back of US-China trade war, protests in Hong Kong and the
implementation of VAT in the Middle East. There will be lots of earnings
announcements too, to keep the markets in action.
Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE Nifty
|
11,586.35
|
11,484.30
|
11,643.75
|
BSE Sensex
|
39,052.06
|
38,704.76
|
39,252.02
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
Yes Bank
|
4,227.50
|
47.40
|
42.67
|
50.17
|
Tata Motors
|
679.34
|
139.50
|
128.28
|
147.53
|
SBI
|
370.61
|
265.45
|
258.70
|
269.10
|
ZEEL
|
360.55
|
264.45
|
255.50
|
273.70
|
Vedanta
|
184.75
|
148.30
|
145.47
|
150.42
|
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