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NSE Intra-day chart (17 October 2019)
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Market Commentary 18 October 2019
Benchmarks to open slightly in red; RIL result eyed

 

Last hour rally helped Indian equity markets to end Thursday's session near their intraday high points, with Sensex & Nifty reclaiming their crucial psychological levels of 39,000 and 11,550, respectively. After a cautious start, indices remained flat for the first half of the session, impacted by a report that the Securities and Exchange Board of India is planning to further tighten rules for participatory notes (P-notes), offshore derivative instruments issued by brokers to foreign investors not registered in the country. Sentiments also got hit, after latest data of Reserve Bank of India showed that credit growth at Indian banks has dropped to its lowest level in nearly two years, as slowing domestic consumption weighs on demand. However, key benchmarks gained traction in the second half of the trading session, tracking firm European markets. Market participants took support with Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision of making India a $5-trillion economy and a global economic powerhouse by 2024-25 is challenging but realisable and underlined that more reforms are on the anvil before the end of the fiscal year. Traders also got comfort with a private report stating that the digital payment system that has been developed in India not only allows big tech companies to participate in it but also has convenience, ease of use, low cost and financial inclusion. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 453.07 points or 1.17% to 39,052.06, while the CNX Nifty was up by 122.35 points or 1.07% to 11,586.35.

 

The US markets ended marginally higher on Thursday as investors drew optimism from a Brexit draft agreement and upbeat third-quarter results from U.S. companies such as Netflix and Morgan Stanley. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker described the deal as fair and balanced for the EU and the UK and urged member nations to back the agreement. The deal could eliminate some of the Brexit uncertainty hanging over the global markets, although it remains to be seen if the agreement will be approved by UK lawmakers. However, upside remain capped as the Federal Reserve released a report showing a bigger than expected decrease in industrial production, with the strike at General Motors (GM) contributing to a drop in manufacturing output. The Fed said industrial production fell by 0.4 percent in September after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.8 percent in August. Street had expected production to edge down by 0.1 percent compared to the 0.6 percent increase originally reported for the previous month. Meanwhile, after reporting a substantial increase in new residential construction in the previous month, the Commerce Department released a report showing a sharp pullback in US housing starts in the month of September. The Commerce Department said housing starts plunged by 9.4 percent to an annual rate of 1.256 million in September after soaring by 15.1 percent to a revised 1.386 million in August. Street had expected housing starts to drop by 3.2 percent to an annual rate of 1.320 million from the 1.364 million originally reported for the previous month. Besides, first-time claims for US unemployment benefits saw a modest increase in the week ended October 12, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The report said initial jobless claims edged up to 214,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 210,000. Street had expected jobless claims to inch up to 215,000. 

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Thursday on account of the development on the Brexit front, where the UK and the European Union have reached an agreement on a draft deal for the UK's exit from the EU. Some support also came in as the US and Turkey reached a cease-fire pact in Syria, temporarily easing Middle East tensions. However, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude supplies climbed for a fifth week in a row, by 9.3 million barrels for the week ended October 11. Data were released a day late because of Monday's US Columbus Day holiday. The American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday reported a climb of 10.5 million barrels. Benchmark crude oil futures for November surged 57 cents or 1.1 percent to settle at $53.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. December Brent rose 49 cents or 0.8 percent to settle at $59.91 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

In line with equity market, Indian rupee ended stronger against dollar on Thursday, due to increased selling of the American currency by banks and exporters. Local currency got support with Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that more reforms are on the anvil this fiscal to boost growth as fresh economic data and subdued corporate earnings point to a deeper economic downturn. Traders also took a note of report that Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) K V Subramanian called upon the industry to start making investments, stressing that the fundamentals of Indian economy are very strong. He noted that fundamentals of the economy have not changed and it would be back on the 7-8 percent growth path. Besides, the dollar losing muscle against other currencies overseas helped the domestic currency rebound. On the global front, euro rallied to its highest levels in nearly two months against the dollar on Thursday after the European Union and Britain struck a Brexit deal. Finally, the rupee ended at 71.16, 27 paise stronger from its previous close of 71.43 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5779.02 crore against gross selling of Rs 4882.40 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1541.68 crore with gross sales of Rs 1157.17 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 25.66 crore against gross selling of Rs 20.91 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Thursday, after a draft Brexit deal was struck between UK and EU officials, and on the back of solid earnings from more blue-chip companies. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Friday, tracking gains on Wall Street, but upside remained limited amid concern that the Chinese economy is likely to show weaker growth. Indian markets extended their northward journey for fifth straight session and ended higher on Thursday on account of strong global cues. Today, the start of session is likely to be marginally in red amid rise in crude oil prices. Investors will be looking ahead to the market heavy weight Reliance Industries' Q2 numbers to be released later in the day, the company is likely to report decent profit growth in September quarter earnings. There will be some cautiousness with the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) statement that though India has worked on the fundamentals of its economy, there are problems, including the long-term drivers of growth that need to be addressed. It said in India, what is critically important is to continue with addressing the long-term drivers of growth. Investment in human capital in India is a top priority. It has to continue bringing women in the labour force. It is very important. Also, traders will be concerned with report that India is likely to miss its fiscal deficit target of 3.3% of gross domestic product for the current financial year by 30-50 basis points, due to the sharp slowdown in the economy that has severely crimped tax collection goals. However, investors may take some support later in the day, amid positive global cues. Some support may also come with Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that investors can find no better place in the world than India that has a democracy loving and capitalist respecting environment. She added that the government was continuously working to bring reforms. Market participant may take note on report that PM Narendra Modi asserted that his government was on course to make India a five-trillion-dollar economy in the next five years despite apprehensions being expressed by experts and the opposition. Aviation stocks will be in focus with the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) data showing that domestic air passenger traffic declined for the fourth consecutive month in September, amid a slowing economy and lean travel season. There will be some reaction in FMCG stocks with a private report that the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) manufacturers would witness even softer growth in the October-December 2019 period. As per the report, growth in Q4CY19 could be in the range of 6.5-7.5%. There will be some buzz in the jewellery stocks with Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council's (GJEPC) statement that the overall gems and jewellery exports is expected to decline of 5-10% in this financial year on the back of US-China trade war, protests in Hong Kong and the implementation of VAT in the Middle East. There will be lots of earnings announcements too, to keep the markets in action.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

11,586.35

11,484.30

11,643.75

BSE Sensex

39,052.06

38,704.76

39,252.02

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Yes Bank

4,227.50

47.40

42.67

50.17

Tata Motors

679.34

139.50

128.28

147.53

SBI

370.61

265.45

258.70

269.10

ZEEL

360.55

264.45

255.50

273.70

Vedanta

184.75

148.30

145.47

150.42

 

  • Ericsson has been selected by Bharti Airtel to deploy its 5G-ready Cloud Packet Core in Airtel's Pan India core network. 
  • TCS and Vodafone Idea have extended their decade-long strategic partnership for a further five years. 
  • Tech Mahindra has entered into a collaboration with InMobi to offer the industry's first video advertising solution for mobile for advertisers like telecom providers and media and entertainment companies. 
  • Bajaj Finance has unveiled its JustEMI wali Sparkling Diwali campaign which offers more than 1000 plus exciting offers online or at Bajaj Finserv partner stores.
News Analysis