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NSE Intra-day chart (15 June 2018)
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Market Commentary 18 June 2018
Markets to make negative start amid weak global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks somehow managed to keep their head above water and settled with slender gains on Friday. Markets traded range bound throughout the day with key gauges swinging both ways touching intra-day high in first half and intra-day low in second half to finally end tad above their neutral lines. Markets started the session on a positive note as support came with India's Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan conveying India's concerns when he met ambassadors of OPEC countries in India over high international oil prices. Some support came with a report that India's home loans touched double-digit mark as a percentage of GDP in the financial year 2018. Housing credit grew 16% in FY18, taking the mortgage penetration to a double-digit mark of 10% for the first time in FY18, up from 9.5% in FY17. The markets also drew some solace with a private report stating that the Centre is planning to change labour laws in order to raise the basic income of salaried employees. However, markets pared all of their early gains to enter into red terrain in noon deals after India's trade deficit widened to four-month high of $14.62 billion in May as imports surged nearly 15%. Exports in May rose by 28.18% to $28.86 billion while imports were up 14.85% to $43.48 billion. Trade deficit widened to $14.62 billion from $13.84 billion in May 2017. Oil imports were up 49.46% to $11.5 billion on back of surge in international crude prices. Sentiments also remained dampened on report that Private equity (PE) investments saw 50% decline in value terms in May at $1,180 million amid fall in big-ticket deals and cautious investor approach. But, markets participants went for bargain hunting in last leg of trade which helped markets to reclaim their respective psychological levels of 10,800 (Nifty) and 35,600 (Sensex). Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 22.32 points or 0.06% to 35,622.14, while the CNX Nifty was up by 9.65 points or 0.09% to 10,817.70.

 

The US markets ended sharply lower on Friday, as investors looked past signs of escalating Washington-Beijing trade tensions, an issue that is seen as a major potential headwind but which has thus far been more bark than bite for equities. President Donald Trump approved tariffs on about $50 billion of Chinese goods, marking the latest escalation in the trade spat between the two countries. Trump said that the tariffs on China are a response to what he calls the country's unfair trade practices, including requiring US companies to effectively hand over innovations and other competitively sensitive information in exchange for access to the massive Chinese market. Beijing has said it intends to assess tariffs on a corresponding amount of US goods, while Trump said the US would pursue more tariffs if China retaliates. Subsequently, Trump said there was no trade war with China. On the economic front, the Empire State manufacturing survey rose 4.9 points in June to a reading of 25, the highest reading since October. Separately, manufacturing production declined 0.7% in May, while capacity utilization dropped to 77.9% from 78.1% in the previous month. The University of Michigan's gauge of consumer sentiment rose to 99.3 in June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 84.83 points or 0.34 percent to 25,090.48, the Nasdaq slipped 14.66 points or 0.19 percent to 7,746.38 and the S&P 500 was down by 2.83 points or 0.10% to 2779.66.

 

Snapping four-day winning streak, Crude oil futures settled lower on Friday, weighted down by expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies will decide to boost production next week. Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the OPEC, is considering an output boost of 500,000 to 1 million barrels a day, while Russia is weighing a rise of as much as 1.5 million barrels a day. Major oil producers meet June 22 in Vienna. Besides, data from oil-field services firm Baker Hughes revealed that the number of active US rigs drilling for oil, which offers a gauge of domestic production activity, rose by 1 to 863 this week. That modest rise marked a fourth straight weekly climb.Benchmark crude oil futures for July delivery declined $1.83 or 2.7 percent to settle at $65.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. August Brent crude slipped $2.50 or 3.3% at $73.44 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee breached the psychological 68/dollar mark to hit its lowest in three week on Friday, following steady uptick in dollar demand from importers and banks. Cautiousness prevailed with a report stating that India's trade deficit will continue to increase in 2018-19 despite faster exports growth, as imports are expected to increase at a much higher rate. Some pessimism also came with a report that Private equity (PE) investments saw 50% decline in value terms in May at $1,180 million amid fall in big-ticket deals and cautious investor approach. On the global front, dollar index against a basket of major currencies rose to a seven-month high on Friday, getting a boost as the euro sagged after a cautious European Central Bank signaled it will keep interest rates at record lows well into next year. Finally, the rupee ended at 68.02, 39 paise weaker from its previous close of 67.63 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4849.83 crore against gross selling of Rs 5597.34 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 791.68 crore with gross sales of Rs 1418.05 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.40 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.75 crore.

 

The US markets ended lower on Friday, but well off the lows of the sessions as investors looked past signs of escalating Washington-Beijing trade tensions. Asian markets were trading in red as investors digested the escalation in trade tensions between the US and China after both countries announced tariffs last week. Indian equity benchmark ended almost flat on Friday, as pharma stocks extended recent gains and IT stocks rose broadly. Today, the markets are likely to make negative start on renewed concerns over a global trade war after US President Donald Trump on Friday announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods that contain industrially significant technologies. Traders will react on rating agency Moody's sounding a note of caution that any reduction in excise duty on petrol and diesel would adversely affect fiscal deficit unless it is matched by a commensurate cut in expenditure. Observing that fiscal consolidation would be closely watched for assigning the sovereign rating, Moody's said India's biggest challenge is its fiscal strength which is relatively low as compared to -- Baa -- rated peers. Sentiment may get a hit with a private report that growth in the current fiscal year will be faster in the first half and will likely face pressure in the second half to end the year at 7.5%. Traders may took some support in later trade with the commerce ministry's data that India's exports grew 20.18% to $28.86 billion in May -- the highest in six months, even though the trade deficit widened to a four month high of $14.62 billion. Imports too rose by 14.85% to $43.48 billion during the month. Sentiment may also get some support with ICRA's report that thirteen states have reported an average 25% decline in their fiscal deficit primarily due to a contraction in capital outlay, even though their revenue has gone up by 7.5% in the fiscal year to March 2018.  


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10,817.70

10,770.73

10,849.33

BSE Sensex

35,622.14

35,469.48

35,725.00

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

ICICI Bank

471.86

282.50

278.83

287.33

Vedanta

244.83

238.60

234.73

241.73

SBI

169.50

277.45

274.88

281.73

Sun Pharma

151.67

571.30

563.58

576.43

Reliance Industries

112.95

1,014.20

1,001.13

1,025.38

 

  • Dr. Reddy's Laboratories has received final approval from USFDA for Buprenorphine and Naloxone Sublingual Film.  
  • Maruti Suzuki India has stopped production of diesel variant of its hatchback Ignis due to low demand. 
  • Tata Motors' heavy engineering and automation arm -- TAL -- is expecting Rs 1000 crore revenue from robotics business over next five years. 
  • Reliance Industries' telecom arm -- Reliance Jio Infocomm -- is planning to raise about Rs 2,000 crore from bond market with a coupon of 8.7 percent.
News Analysis