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NSE Intra-day chart (17 January 2018)
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Market Commentary 18 January 2018
Markets to remain in jubilant mood with a positive start


Wednesday turned out to be a fabulous day of trade for Indian equity benchmarks with frontline gauges ending the session at their all time closing high levels, surpassing 35,000 (Sensex) and 10,750 (Nifty) levels for the first time ever. After a cautious start, markets gained traction and there appeared not even an iota of profit booking in the session afterwards with benchmarks fervently gaining from strength to strength to end near intraday highs, as investors continued hunt for fundamentally strong stocks. Sentiments remained up-beat after the government said it will reduce its additional borrowing to Rs 200 billion from the bond markets in the financial year 2017-18, from Rs 500 billion announced last month. This is primarily because the Reserve Bank of India will pay a higher-than-anticipated surplus to the Centre, and the dividend target from state-owned companies will also be met. Also, traders took some encouragement with a private report stating that business optimism index for the January-March quarter 2018 touched three and half year high on improving demand conditions and expectation that government sops in the budget will revive consumption. It further said that the upcoming Union Budget and assembly elections during 2018 might have generated optimism about government sops that could push revival in consumption. Markets accelerated northward journey after rating agency CRISIL enlightened that India will benefit from stronger global growth in the fiscal 2019 provided there are no more after effects from the implementation of the new Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the economy manages to tide over the asymmetry in monetary policy of advance economies together with higher crude oil prices. Some support also came with report that agricultural exports from India grew 18 per cent to $21 billion in the April-October 2017-18 period compared to just 5 per cent in 2016-17. Meanwhile, Commerce and Industries Minister Suresh Prabhu has said that India is expected to become a $5 trillion economy in the next 8-9 years with the manufacturing sector contributing 20 per cent to that. Prabhu said as commerce and industries minister, he is working on a strategy for international trade which will contribute $2 trillion to the economy where contribution can come from both manufacturing and services. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 310.77 points or 0.89% to 35,081.82, while the CNX Nifty was up by 88.10 points or 0.82% to 10,788.55.

 

The US markets closed higher on Wednesday, with the Dow industrials staged a late rally to end above 26,000 for the first time ever, knocking out another round-number milestone at a history-setting pace for blue chips, with all the main equity indexes finishing at all-time highs. An upbeat gauge of conditions at the Federal Reserve's business districts contributed to the buying sentiment. The Federal Reserve said that the US economy and inflation expanded at a modest-to-moderate pace from late November through the end of 2017, while wages continued to push higher. The US central bank said in its periodic Beige Book report on the economy that most districts said that wages increased at a modest pace. A few districts observed that firms were raising wages in a broader range of industries and positions since the previous report. Several regional Fed districts noted increases in manufacturing, construction, and transportation input costs. Some reported expectations of further wage increases in the coming months, though prices pressures were still mixed. On the economy front, industrial production rose 0.9% in December for the fourth straight monthly increase. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 322.79 points or 1.25 percent to 26,115.65, the Nasdaq gained 74.594 points or 1.03 percent to 7,298.28, and the S&P 500 edged higher by 26.14 points or 0.94 percent to 2,802.56.

 

Crude oil futures recovered and ended higher on Wednesday, as positive commentary concerning the OPEC-led pact strengthened investors' expectations that the oil cartel would continue with output cuts. Prices remained steady near recent 4-year highs ahead of US inventories data. Benchmark crude oil futures for February delivery ended higher by $0.24 or 0.9 percent at $63.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for March delivery was up by $0.10 to $69.26 a barrel on the ICE.

 

Snapping its previous session's losses, Indian rupee recovered against dollar on Wednesday, on sustained dollar selling by exporters amid record rally in domestic equities. Sentiments remained positive with the Government lowering its additional borrowing plan to Rs 20,000 crore for the fiscal from the earlier proposal of raising an extra Rs 50,000 crore from the market. The reduced borrowing would help contain fiscal deficit within the target. Traders also took some encouragement with Crisil's latest report stating that India will benefit from stronger global growth in the fiscal 2019 provided there are no more after effects from the implementation of the GST and the economy manages to tide over the asymmetry in monetary policy of advance economies together with higher crude oil prices. Besides, dollar's weakness against some currencies overseas also aided the recovery momentum. On the global front, euro fell against dollar on Wednesday as some investors ramped up bullish bets about the currency though some concerns from policymakers this week damped broader optimism. Finally, the rupee ended at 63.88, 15 paise stronger from its previous close of 64.03 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8266.56 crore against gross selling of Rs 7520.86 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 391.18 crore with gross sales of Rs 822.00 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2.20 crore against gross selling of Rs 5.68 crore.

 

The US markets surged in the last session and the Dow closed above 26,000 for the first time ever, after the Federal Reserve's Beige Book painted a sunny picture of the US economy. Traders also got some support with report that US industrial production surged over the winter. The Asian markets have made a green start, extending this year's stellar run, amid optimism for global growth. Energy shares gained after oil edged higher, as OPEC showed increased determination to curb production. The Indian markets went for a strong rally in the last session after the government cut additional borrowing requirement to Rs 20,000 crore from Rs 50,000 crore notified earlier that eased worries surrounding widening fiscal deficit. Today, the start is likely to be in green on sanguine global cues. Traders may also get some support with report that direct tax collections during the first nine-and-a-half months of the current fiscal have risen by 18.7 per cent to Rs. 6.89 lakh crore. CBDT said that the collections till January 15, 2018 represent over 70 per cent of the Rs. 9.8 lakh crore revenue target from direct taxes. The banking stocks will be in focus amid reports that the government is considering a proposal to permit 100 percent FDI in private banks. Meanwhile, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) ahead of the GST Council meeting has called for inclusion of Petroleum and Natural Gas under GST at the earliest. Till such time as this is done, C Forms should be continued to avoid high tax incidence on these products. There will be some buzz in the telecom stocks on report that industry saw a paltry 0.14 million net addition of subscribers during December, the lowest by the industry in the 2017 calendar year. There will be some important earnings too, to keep the markets in action.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10788.55

10702.53

10838.78

BSE Sensex

35081.82

34815.56

35233.35

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

ICICI Bank

433.02

343.25

336.80

346.95

SBI

262.76

307.10

297.00

312.80

ITC

163.75

266.05

261.40

268.85

Infosys

130.77

1152.10

1129.47

1168.27

Hindalco

110.37

262.75

257.72

266.52

  • Reliance Industries will invest Rs 5,000 crore in expanding its telecom and petro-retail businesses in West Bengal.
  • Tata Motors' subsidiary -- JLR has launched the 2018 version of its Range Rover Evoque Landmark Edition in India priced at Rs 50.20 lakh.
  • BPCL has raised Rs 750 crore through private placement of unsecured non-convertible debentures on January 16, 2018.
  • Sun Pharma has reached an agreement with Ironwood Pharmaceuticals and Allergan to settle a patent litigation for generic of Linzess in the US.
News Analysis