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NSE Intra-day chart (15 November 2018)
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Market Commentary 16 November 2018
Markets to start on a positive note on supportive global cues


Key equity indices logged notable gains in Thursday's choppy session, with Sensex regaining its crucial psychological level of 35,200. The markets made a volatile start but soon gained traction, with taking support from Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) Chairman Sushil Chandra's statement that direct tax collection has already crossed Rs 5 lakh crore that is 44% of the net direct tax collection target and will exceed the budgeted target of Rs 11.5 crore set for the current fiscal. He further highlighted that so far the I-T department has issued refunds to 2.15 crore assessees amounting to Rs 1.15 lakh crore and from now onwards the net collections will increase. Domestic sentiments also got boost, with Assocham secretary general Uday Kumar Varma's statement that expanding investment in infrastructure will generate jobs, promote tourism and play catalytic role in overall growth and development of Indian economy. He also said that the government's vision for new and improved infrastructure that can serve the nation for a long time. In the last leg of the trade, the markets trimmed some of their gains but managed to keep their heads in green terrain, amid reports report that finance ministry will seek immediate solutions to the issues of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) credit and NBFC liquidity in the central bank's board meeting on November 19. The market participants also took some support with the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) calling for a change in regulations to improve access to credit for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME), which the lobby group says are facing increased risk of financial stress due to a liquidity crunch in the market. Some solace also came from top banker Uday Kotak's statement that the country has been under a lot of pressure due to higher-than-$60 a barrel oil price in last one year but the latest retreat is giving a lot of comfort to India. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 118.55 points or 0.34% to 35,260.54, while the CNX Nifty was up by 40.40 points or 0.38% to 10,616.70.


The US markets made strong come back and ended the Thursday's session considerably higher, with major indices gaining around a percent, amid optimism about trade after a report which said the US and China have intensified efforts to reach a trade agreement at the G20 summit later this month. The FT said negotiators stepped up efforts following a telephone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping earlier this month. The FT said China subsequently responded to US requests to address a range of sticking points, with senior US and Chinese officials discussing the possibility of concessions. Meanwhile, the early weakness in the markets came amid lingering concerns about the global economic outlook as well as news of the resignation of UK Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab. Moreover, the Commerce Department in its latest report revealed that retail sales in the US increased by more than anticipated in the month of October. The Commerce Department said retail sales advanced by 0.8 percent in October following a revised 0.1 percent dip in September. Street had expected retail sales to climb by 0.5 percent compared to the 0.1 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month. Excluding a jump in auto sales, retail sales still rose by 0.7 percent in October after edging down by 0.1 percent in September. Ex-auto sales had been expected to increase by 0.5 percent. Meanwhile, closely watched core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, rose by 0.3 percent in October, matching the downwardly revise increase in September. Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 208.77 points or 0.83 percent to 25,289.27, Nasdaq gained 122.64 points or 1.72 percent to 7,259.03 and S&P 500 was up by 28.62 points or 1.06 percent to 2,730.20.


Extending gains for second straight session, crude oil futures settled higher on Thursday, despite official data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing a bigger than expected increase in US crude oil inventories in the week to November 9. The report from EIA showed crude oil inventories to have risen by 10.27 million barrels last week, more than thrice the expected increase. That was the biggest weekly increase since February 2017. The data also showed that US crude production was up by 1,00,000 barrels per day to 11.7 million barrels per day, a record high. Benchmark crude oil futures for December jumped 21 cents or 0.4 percent to settle at $56.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. January Brent crude rose 50 cents or 0.8 percent to settle at $66.62 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Rising for the third consecutive day, Indian rupee ended considerably stronger against dollar on Thursday, on continued selling of the American currency by exporters and banks and easing crude oil prices. Sentiments remained buoyant with Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) Chairman Sushil Chandra's statement that direct tax collection has already crossed Rs 5 lakh crore that is 44% of the net direct tax collection target and will exceed the budgeted target of Rs 11.5 crore set for the current fiscal. Some support also came from top banker Uday Kotak's statement that the country has been under a lot of pressure due to higher-than-$60 a barrel oil price in last one year but the latest retreat is giving a lot of comfort to India. Besides, positive trend in equity market too supported the rupee. On the global front, dollar jumped and traders bought into the safe-haven yen on Thursday after Britain's Brexit deal with the European Union was plunged into uncertainty, spooking investors. Finally, the rupee ended at 71.97, 34 paise stronger from its previous close of 72.31 on Wednesday.


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5570.15 crore against gross selling of Rs 5392.84 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2490.96 crore with gross sales of Rs 1489.99 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.50 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.23 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Thursday on report that the US and China may step up efforts to resolve their trade conflict, starting with postponing higher tariffs and allowing working level negotiators to iron out a deal. Asian markets were trading mostly in green on Friday as investors gauge whether China and the US can de-escalate their trade spat before the G-20 summit later this month. In a volatile trade, Indian equity markets closed higher on Thursday on positive sentiment amid easing crude oil prices and firm rupee. Today, the start is likely to be good on positive global cues and traders will be drawing encouragement with report that India's exports rose by 17.86% to $26.98 billion in October 2018 as compared to $22.89 Billion in October 2017. Exports bounced back in October to high double-digit figures after the mild contraction in September as engineering goods, pharmaceutical and chemical shipments picked up the pace. During the April-October period of the current financial year, exports grew by 13.27% to $191 billion. However, there will be some cautiousness on report that the trade deficit for the month of October 2018 widened to $17.13 billion v/s $13.98 billion in September on account of import growth again picked up. The deficit widened despite a decline of 42.9% in gold imports to $1.68 billion. Imports during the month also rose by 17.62% to $44.11 billion, leading to widening of trade deficit. Meanwhile, refusing to upgrade India's credit rating for the 12th year in a row, Fitch has retained its sovereign rating for the country at BBB- the lowest investment grade with a stable outlook, it said that a weak fiscal position continues to constrain the ratings and there were significant risks to macroeconomic outlook.  It also said that India's real GDP growth is expected to be at 7.8% in FY19, up from 6.7% in FY18 even as the government may find it tough to meet its fiscal deficit target of 3.3%. Besides, RBI board member S Gurumurthy said the stand-off between the government and the Reserve Bank was not a happy situation. He also said imposition of tight provisioning norms for bad loans in one go created problems for the banking system. The Tourism sector stocks will be in action as tourism sector has pledge Rs 6.25 billion of fresh investments during the biennial investors' conclave- Make in Odisha 2018. The pharmaceutical sector too will be in action as Minister of State for Chemicals and Fertilisers Mansukh Mandaviya said after the implementation of GST, the pharmaceutical sector grew 6% to Rs 1.31 trillion on a year-on-year basis till May 31. There will be some buzz in the sugar stocks on report that Indian sugar mills have produced 10.80 lakh tonne sugar till November 13 as against 19 lakh tonnes they had produced during same period of previous year. The country is expected to produce 324 lakh tonnes of sugar during 2018-19.


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  • Hero MotoCorp has commenced the national retail sales of its new Destini 125 scooter.
  •  Wipro's arm Wipro Enterprises' Consumer Care and Lighting business has inked pact with Igor to offer intelligent lighting and smart building devices in the Indian market.
  •  M&M's subsidiary Classic Legends has launched Jawa, Jawa forty two and Jawa Perak Motorcycles under the Jawa brand.
  •  Eicher Motors' two-wheeler division -- Royal Enfield -- has launched its parallel twin powered 650cc motorcycles in India on November 14, 2018.
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