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NSE Intra-day chart (15 March 2018)
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Market Commentary 16 March 2018
Markets likely to make pessimistic start on muted global cues

                                                                     

Indian equity benchmarks ended the Thursday's trade in red terrain with frontline gauges declining below their crucial 10,400 (Nifty) and 33,700 (Sensex) levels. After making a cautious start, markets traded with marginal losses for most part of the session, as market participants opted to remain on sidelines ahead of balance of trade figure for the month of February to be released later in the day. Sentiments remained downbeat with a private report stating that the slowdown seen of late in India's export growth rate is likely to continue in February as well, thanks to a slow disbursement of Goods and Services Tax (GST) refunds, low growth in labour-intensive sectors and a volatile currency. Selling got intensified in last leg of trade which dragged markets to their lowest level. Investors remained concerned as Industry bodies said that RBI's decision to ban Letters of Undertaking (LOUs) for trade credit for imports will have a disruptive impact, at least in the immediate term, as small businesses would require higher working capital. Traders took note of a report that the proceedings of the Lok Sabha were paralysed for the ninth consecutive day today as several parties, including NDA constituent TDP, continued their noisy protests over various issues, including the PNB scam and special status for Andhra Pradesh. Traders failed to take sense of relief with Fitch Ratings in its latest ‘Global Economic Outlook' forecasting that the Indian economy is likely to grow at the rate of 7.3% in the next fiscal (FY19) and further to 7.5% in FY20. Traders shrugged off World Bank's statement that India's economy is expected to grow at 7.3% in the next financial year and accelerate to 7.5% in 2019-20, bottoming out from the impact of demonetisation and GST, even as it highlighted private investments and exports as the two lagging engines of growth. In its biannual publication, India Development Update, the World Bank said it expected Indian economy to clock a growth rate of 6.7% in the current financial year. Finally, the BSE Sensex declined 150.20 points or 0.44% to 33,685.54, while the CNX Nifty was down by 50.75 points or 0.49% to 10,360.15.

 

The US markets closed mostly lower on Thursday, with the S&P 500 slipping for a fourth session, marking its worst string of losses so far this year, as worries about an escalating trade war overshadowed robust economic data. However, the Dow snapped a three-day losing streak as economy-sensitive blue chips outperformed the broader market. Worries are persisting this week about a potential global trade war after President Donald Trump said Wednesday his administration will seek to trim the US's trade deficit with China by $100 billion. The announcement follows comments the previous day that he wants to impose up to $60 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods. On the economy front, the rate of layoffs in the US as measured by initial jobless claims fell slightly in early March and clung near a 50-year low - a boon for workers and a headache for employers looking to hire. Initial US jobless claims declined by 4,000 to 226,000 in the seven days ended March 10. The more stable monthly average of claims dropped by 750 to 221,500. The number of people already collecting unemployment benefits, known as continuing claims, rose by 4,000 to 1.88 million. Yet these claims dropped below 2 million last spring for the first time since 2000 and have remained there ever since. The Nasdaq dropped 15.07 points or 0.20 percent to 7,481.74, the S&P 500 was down by 2.15 points or 0.08 percent to 2,747.33, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 115.54 points or 0.47 percent to 24,873.66.

 

Extending previous session's northward journey, Crude oil futures edged higher on Thursday, supported by signs of growing global crude demand, but concerns surrounding surging U.S. shale production kept gains in check. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said global oil demand will grow by 1.5 million barrels a day, to average 99.3 million barrels a day in 2018. The estimate was an upward revision of 90,000 barrels a day compared with last month's report. Robust demand should help offset burgeoning U.S. shale oil production, largely keeping the oil market balanced this year. Benchmark crude oil futures for April delivery jumped 23 cents or 0.4 percent at $61.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. May Brent crude gained by 23 cents or 0.4 percent to settle at $65.12 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Snapping its three-day winning streak, Indian rupee ended weaker against dollar on Thursday, due to demand for greenback by banks and importers. Additionally, weak trade in domestic equity markets mainly pressurised the home unit. Traders failed to get relief with World Bank's report which highlighted that India's economy is expected to grow 7.3% in the next financial year and accelerate to 7.5% in 2019-20, bottoming out from the impact of demonetization and GST, even as it highlighted private investments and exports as the two lagging engines of growth. The World Bank said it expected Indian economy to clock a growth rate of 6.7% in the current financial year. On the global front, dollar fell against yen on Thursday as trade tensions encouraged investors to buy the Japanese currency. Market participants are concerned about a US shift towards increased protectionism under Donald Trump's administration. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.93, 10 paise weaker from its previous close of 64.83 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, in equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4305.94 crore against gross selling of Rs 4355.55 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2552.62 crore with gross sales of Rs 1798.24 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.05 crore against no selling.

 

The US markets ended mostly in red on Thursday, as traders digested a slew of U.S. economic data, including a report from the Labor Department showing initial jobless claims edged lower in the week ended March 10th. Asian markets were trading mostly lower on Friday amid a backdrop of global trade-related developments and news out of Washington. Indian markets edged lower on Thursday amid lingering concerns over the impact of a trade war on the global economy and on mostly weak cues from the U.S. and Asian markets. Today, markets are likely to make soft start as global markets turned defensive on concerns over the U.S. investigation into the Trump Organization and renewed worries that U.S. tariffs could hurt the global economy. Back on domestic front, sentiments will be dampened on report that India's trade deficit for February 2018 was estimated at $11,979.21 million, 25.8 per cent higher than the $9,521.73-million deficit reported during February 2017. Exports from the country rose 4.48 per cent in dollar terms during February this year compared to the same month of the last fiscal. But, in rupee terms, export growth was flat with a mere 0.27 per cent rise, reflecting a dip in value of the Indian currency. Imports rose during the month under consideration and were 10.41 per cent higher (in dollar terms). However, traders may get some support with the IMF's statement that India should see its growth picking up this year after two transitory shocks - the demonetisation and the GST - while China's growth is likely to fall gradually. In its G-20 Surveillance Note Global Prospects and Policy Challenges ahead of the G-20 Finance Ministers meeting in Argentina next week, the International Monetary Fund said that globally growth is expected to revert to a weaker trend.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10,360.15

10,330.90

10,404.70

BSE Sensex

33,685.54

33,593.12

33,822.12

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Indian Oil Corporation

263.70

192.05

189.78

193.78

SBI

183.40

253.70

251.23

257.48

ICICI Bank

132.82

301.45

299.32

304.67

Yes Bank

100.00

311.85

308.13

318.28

Vedanta 

91.67

316.95

314.37

320.17

 

  • Wipro has signed a definitive agreement to divest its hosted data center services business to Ensono for $405 million. 
  • Infosys is planning to open its next Technology and Innovation Hub in Hartford, Connecticut and hire 1,000 American workers in the state by 2022. 
  • Hero MotoCorp has extended its partnership with the Maharashtra State Police. 
  • Yes Bank has launched a robotics based -- Digital export Import -- payments solution as a part of its Yes Transact Smart Trade product suite.
News Analysis