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NSE Intra-day chart (13 November 2017)
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Market Commentary 14 November 2017
Markets likely to extend the sluggish trend with a cautious start


Indian equity benchmarks started the new week on pessimistic note with frontline gauges ending near intraday low levels, breaching their crucial 10,250 (Nifty) and 33,100 (Sensex) levels, as traders stayed away of risky assets, keeping an eye on the ongoing tensions in the West Asia. Soon after a positive start markets entered into red terrain, as traders reacted negatively to industrial output growth data which fell to 3.8% during the month of September from a revised 4.5% rise in August. The slowdown was mainly due to subdued performance of the manufacturing sector, coupled with contraction in output of consumer durables. Manufacturing sector, which accounts for more than three-fourths of the entire index, slowed to 3.4% in September, from 5.8% in the same month previous year. Afterwards markets never looked confidant and extended their southward journey to at day's lows.  Sentiments remained dampened on reports that investments in the Indian capital market through participatory notes (P-notes) plunged to an over eight-year low of Rs 1.23 lakh crore at September-end in view of stringent norms put in place by regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). According to SEBI data, the total value of P-notes investments in Indian markets - equity, debt and derivatives - slumped to Rs 1,22,684 crore at September-end after hitting seven-and-a-half year low of Rs 1,25,037 crore at the end of August. Traders failed to get any sense of relief with report that foreign investors have pumped in a staggering $1.5 billion in the Indian equity markets this month during November 1-10, propelled by the government's Rs 2.11 lakh crore bank recapitalisation plan. This follows a net inflow of over Rs 3,000 crore in stock markets last month. Prior to that, FPIs had pulled out more than Rs 24,000 crore in the past two months (August and September). Finally, the BSE Sensex declined 281.00 points or 0.84% to 33,033.56, while the CNX Nifty was down by 96.80 points or 0.94% to 10,224.95.

 

The US markets closed higher on Monday, after the Dow and the S&P 500 posted their first weekly drops in two months last week. The upside was capped however, as uncertainty continued to swirl around the state of Republican tax-cut legislation. The Senate bill differs from the House bill in significant ways, making delays likely as the two chambers work out their differences in conference committee. There is a chance that the House could pass the Senate's final bill and be done with it. Investors also continued to monitor President Donald Trump's 13-day visit to Asia. On the economy front, the federal government ran a budget deficit of $63 billion in October, the first month of fiscal 2018. The shortfall was $17 billion more than in the same month last year. Spending was up 12% in the month, while revenues rose 6%. Major drivers for higher spending in October included homeland security programs and education. Receipts of individual income and payroll taxes were 7% higher than in October 2016, a factor usually attributed to increases in wages and salaries. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 17.49 points or 0.07 percent to 23,439.70, the Nasdaq gained 6.656 points or 0.10 percent to 6,757.60, and the S&P 500 edged higher by 2.54 points or 0.10 percent to 2,584.84.

 

Crude oil futures made mostly a flat closing on Monday, as investors weighed the prospect of supply disruptions amid rising Middle East tensions. Middle East tensions grew over the weekend, fueling expectations of supply disruptions in the region after Bahrain said Iran was behind an explosion to its main oil pipeline. The commodity traded in a narrow range with growing expectations of a ramp up in U.S. crude output capped upside momentum. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery ended higher by $0.02 at $ 56.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery was down by $ 0.37 to $63.20 a barrel on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee ended at a 6-week low against US dollar on Monday, following continued dollar demand from banks and importers coupled with heavy capital outflows. Investors have maintained cautious approach ahead of the Consumer Price Index-based inflation data for October scheduled to be released later today. Some pessimism also came with data showing that India's Industrial production growth slowed down to 3.8% in the month of September 2017, as against 5.7% in September 2016, due to subdued performance of the manufacturing sector, coupled with contraction in output of consumer durables. Moreover, a firming dollar overseas coupled with heavy losses in domestic equity markets, too weighed heavily on forex sentiment. On the global front, pound dropped against dollar on Monday after reports that several members of Parliament want Prime Minister Theresa May to resign, the latest sign of turmoil in the British government. Finally, the rupee ended at 65.42, 26 paise weaker from its previous close of 65.16 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5144.76 crore against gross selling of Rs 5172.48 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1268.32 crore with gross sales of Rs 1431.47 crore.

 

The US markets coming off their early weakness posted modest gains in the last session, though the traders remained concerned about the outlook for tax reform. The Asian markets were showing a mixed trend in early deals with investors awaiting clues on monetary policy from heads of some major central banks and kept an eye on US tax reform developments. The Indian markets went for another sell-off in the last session and major benchmarks deposed around a percent on sluggish industrial output data and some weak earnings. Today, the start is likely to remain cautious and traders will be concerned with retail inflation accelerating more than expected in October. Inflation quickened to 3.58 percent in the month, the fastest pace in seven months, from 3.28 percent increase in September. Traders will however be getting some support with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that there is scope for further rationalisation of GST rates and revenue buoyancy will decide the course of rationalization. He however, ruled out single tax rate of GST, saying those seeking single rate have no understanding of tariff structure. There will be some support with a private report that India is likely to achieve strong growth over the next decade and will overtake Japan in nominal GDP by 2028, to emerge as the world's third largest economy. Manufacturing sector stocks are likely to be in action, as the Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that the Indian government wants to make the country a Global Manufacturing Hub. He said, "We want to make India a global manufacturing hub and we want to make our youngsters job creators." Apart from a long list of earnings announcements, there will be buzz from the primary market too, where Footwear retailer Khadim India will list on the bourses today, the IPO was subscribed 1.90 times.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10224.95

10182.75

10300.65

BSE Sensex

33033.56

32883.26

33300.58

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

SBI

387.78

331.05

325.60

340.65

Axis Bank

217.02

537.35

526.08

556.58

ICICI Bank

136.79

314.25

310.90

319.70

Tata Motors

98.58

418.10

413.63

425.03

ITC

73.96

258.30

256.43

261.73

  • ONGC hopes to complete the acquisition of HPCL by March.
  • L&T's wholly-owned subsidiary - LTHE has bagged an offshore contract for the Balance Work for Pipeline Replacement Project-4 from ONGC valued at approximately Rs 1,267 crore.
  • Hero MotoCorp is working on consolidating its position in some of the overseas markets with significant growth prospects.
  • NTPC has reported marginal fall of 2.32% in its net profit after tax at Rs 2438.60 crore for Q2FY18 as compared to Rs 2496.47 crore for Q2FY17.
News Analysis