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NSE Intra-day chart (13 May 2020)
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Market Commentary 14 May 2020
Markets to open in red amid weak global cues

 

Snapping two-day losing streak, Indian equity benchmarks ended Wednesday's session on higher note with gains of over two percent, led by gains in banking and financial sectors. Domestic bourses opened with massive gap-up, as Prime Minister (PM) has announced a stimulus package totalling Rs 20 lakh crore, with an aim to rescue the Indian economy reeling under the impact of coronavirus. This amounts to nearly 10 percent of India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). PM said that economic package is for all classes of society, for all Indians and industry. The markets, nevertheless, gave up greater than half of these positive aspects within the first hour of trade, amid heavy sell off in global markets. Some concern also came as India's industrial output, measured in Index of Industrial Production (IIP), contracted by 16.7% in March 2020 mainly on account of poor show by mining, manufacturing and electricity sector due to the nationwide lockdown. The IIP had grown by 2.7% in March 2019. The IIP in the last fiscal contracted by 0.7% from 3.8% expansion in the 2018-19. But, domestic bourses still traded steady in the afternoon session, with gains of over 2 percent each, as sentiments remained up-beat with the World Economic Forum (WEF) stating that India has moved up two positions to rank 74th on a global Energy Transition Index with improvements on all key parameters of economic growth, energy security and environmental sustainability. Markets held on to gains in late trade, as the New Development Bank of the BRICS countries has fully disbursed $1 billion emergency assistance loan to India to help it contain the spread of COVID-19 and reduce human, social and economic losses caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 637.49 points or 2.03% to 32,008.61, while the CNX Nifty was up by 187.00 points or 2.03% to 9,383.55.

 

The US markets ended lower on Wednesday, extending their previous session's losses, as traders reacted to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments about the economic outlook. Powell warned the coronavirus crisis raises longer-term concerns that could result in an extended period of low productivity growth and stagnant incomes. Powell said the central bank may take additional steps to support the economy but is not considering adopting negative interest rates. Powell said at the Fed, we will continue to use our tools to their fullest until the crisis has passed and the economic recovery is well under way. The Fed Chief noted the economic outlook is both highly uncertain and subject to significant downside risks and suggested it may be necessary for Congress to provide additional stimulus. On the economic data front, the Labor Department released a report showing US producer prices plunged by much more than expected in the month of April. The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand tumbled by 1.3 percent in April after edging down by 0.2 percent in March. Street had expected prices to drop by 0.5 percent. The bigger than expected decrease in producer prices came as energy prices nosedived by 19.0 in April after plummeting by 6.7 percent in March. Excluding food and energy prices, core producer prices fell by a much more modest 0.3 percent in April after inching up by 0.2 percent in the previous month. Core prices were expected to be unchanged.

 

Crude oil futures settled lower on Wednesday despite data showing a drop in US stockpiles as well as a decline in output last week. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude inventories fell by 700,000 barrels for the week ended May 8. That marked the first weekly decline in 16 weeks and defied a forecast by S&P Global Platts for an average increase of 4.8 million barrels. The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a climb of 7.6 million barrels. The EIA data also showed stocks in the storage at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by 3 million barrels last week. The EIA data showed. Total US oil production fell by 300,000 barrels a day to 11.6 million barrels a day. Crude oil futures for June fell 49 cents or 1.9 percent to settle at $25.29 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. July Brent crude dropped 79 cents or 2.6 percent to settle at $29.19 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee gave up most of its initial gains but managed to end marginally higher against dollar on Wednesday on the back of mild sale of dollars by banks and exporters. Traders took some support as Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a stimulus package totalling Rs 20 lakh crore to rescue the economy reeling under the impact of coronavirus. This amounts to nearly 10% of India's GDP. This economic package will focus on areas like land, labour, liquidity and law. However, gains remain capped as India's industrial output, measured in Index of Industrial Production (IIP), contracted by 16.7% in March 2020 mainly on account of poor show by mining, manufacturing and electricity sector due to the nationwide lockdown. On the global front, dollar held below a three-week high on Wednesday ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on growing speculation that the United States could introduce negative interest rates. Finally, the rupee ended at 75.46, 5 paise stronger from its previous close of 75.51 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6157.45 crore against gross selling of Rs 7996.58 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 448.84 crore with gross sales of Rs 4733.15 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4.95 crore against gross selling of Rs 7.18 crore.

 

The US markets ended lower on Wednesday as Powell warned the coronavirus crisis raises longer-term concerns that could result in an extended period of low productivity growth and stagnant incomes. Asian markets are trading in red on Thursday following overnight fall on Wall Street. Indian markets ended higher with notable gains on Wednesday after Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a Rs 20 lakh crore package -- nearly 10% of India's GDP in a big push to revive the economy. Today, the markets are likely to make negative start tracking weakness in global markets. Investors will be eyeing the April wholesale price index (WPI) inflation data to be released later in the day. There will be some cautiousness with former chief statistician Pronab Sen fears that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) will contract astronomically by nine per cent in 2020-21 if the government does not go beyond the package announced by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman. Traders will be concerned as the UN slashed India's projected growth rate to 1.2% in 2020 and forecast that the global economy will contract sharply by 3.2% as the COVID-19 pandemic paralyses the world, sharply restricting economic activities, increasing uncertainties and unleashing a recession unseen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Though, some respite may come later in the day as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman unveiled the first tranche of the mega economic stimulus package aimed at uplifting the economy. In a big push to revive the economy, the FM announced 15 schemes for MSMEs, HFCs, NBFCs, MFI, Discoms, RERA and on EPF. Traders may be getting some encouragement as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said a scheme providing interest subsidy for post and pre-shipment export credit has been extended by a year till March 31, 2021, a move which would provide relief to exporters. Besides, in a major initiative, the government has extended the due date for filing belated income tax returns (ITRs) for the year 2019-2020 from July 31, 2020 and October 31, 2020 to November 30, 2020. Meanwhile, the World Economic Forum (WEF) said India has moved up two positions to rank 74th on a global Energy Transition Index with improvements on all key parameters of economic growth, energy security and environmental sustainability. There will be some buzz in the healthcare stocks with ICRA's report that following the spread of Covid-19 pandemic, the revenues of healthcare entities is likely to fall by 15-20 per cent in FY21. Sugar stocks will be in focus amid reports that the Centre has asked sugar mills to divert the excess cane and sugar for the production of fuel grade ethanol. There will be some reaction in agriculture stocks as IMD said monsoon is expected to hit Indian shores in mid-May as a low pressure area has begun to form over the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea. There will be some earnings announcements too to keep the markets buzzing.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9,383.55

9,294.93

9,528.33

BSE Sensex

32,008.61

31,658.53

32,602.09

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

 

Support  (Rs)

 

Resistance (Rs)

 

(in Lacs)

Vedanta

1,458.42

90.25

86.52

95.97

State Bank of India

817.22

174.10

170.22

178.27

ICICI Bank

728.18

338.05

330.77

346.87

Tata Motors

680.86

87.20

84.80

91.05

Axis Bank

482.06

414.00

403.58

420.43

 

  • Cipla has signed a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Gilead Sciences, Inc. for the manufacturing and distribution of the investigational medicine Remdesivir. 
  • Kotak Mahindra Bank has reported a fall of 6.53% in its consolidated net profit at Rs 1905.18 crore for Q4FY20 as compared to Rs 2038.27 crore for Q4FY19. 
  • Infosys has been selected by Global Foundries -- the world's leading specialty foundry, as its partner for the company's Digital Transformation program. 
  • Vedanta's one of the members of the promoter and promoter group -- Vedanta Resources has expressed its intention to acquire all fully paid-up equity shares of the company.
News Analysis