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NSE Intra-day chart (12 October 2020)
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Market Commentary 13 October 2020
Markets to open in red on weak IIP, CPI data

 

Indian equity benchmarks gave up most of their initials gains to end marginally higher on Monday, led by buying in IT, TECK, Healthcare and FMCG stocks. The benchmarks staged a gap up opening, as traders took encouragement with the report that concerted efforts by the Reserve Bank to move to a non/less-cash economy by pushing digital payments have begun to pay rich dividends as the volume of such payments has jumped manifold in the past five years. Sentiments remained positive with NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant's statement that India's massive digital footprint is one of its biggest strengths for Artificial Intelligence (AI) development, and established platforms like Aadhaar, UPI along with massive digital infrastructure create a unique opportunity for this futuristic technology to be leveraged to enhance transparency and improve governance. Some support also came in with report that foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have invested Rs 1,086 crore on a net basis so far in October in Indian markets, tracking encouraging factors including improved GST collection, acceleration in economic activity and positive global cues. However, markets witnessed volatility in late afternoon session, as investors remained on sidelines ahead of industrial production data for August and CPI inflation for September which are due later in the day. But, indices managed to end session in green terrain, as the government has unveiled a one-time Rs 10,000 interest-free festival advance to all its officers and employees, as part of plans to increase consumer spending to spur demand in the economy. Besides, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that the Survey of Villages and Mapping with Improvised Technology in Village Areas (SVAMITVA) scheme will bring historical changes in the villages across the country. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 84.31 points or 0.21% to 40,593.80, while the CNX Nifty was up by 16.75 points or 0.14% to 11,930.95.

 

The US markets ended higher on Monday, extending the strong upward move seen over the past few sessions, as investors bought technology giants and shifted their focus to corporate earnings starting this week. Apple posted a standout gain, surging up by 6.4 percent, while Facebook and Google parent Alphabet also moved notably higher. Shares of Twitter also showed a strong move to the upside after Deutsche Bank upgraded its rating on the social media giant to Buy from Hold. Besides, with less than three weeks to the presidential election, investors were focusing on the outlook for the Democratic Party controlling both the White House and Congress. The markets also benefited from optimism about a new stimulus bill even though House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said talks will remain at an impasse until serious issues with the Trump administration's latest proposal are resolved. The White House has increased its offer to $1.8 billion in its latest proposal, but Pelosi still called the administration's proposed bill grossly inadequate. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows sent a letter to members of the House and Senate accusing Democrats of refusing to compromise on bipartisan legislation.

                        

Crude oil futures ended lower on Monday with production in Libya, Norway and the Gulf of Mexico set to recover. Libya lifted force majeure at its largest oil field, producers began restoring output in the Gulf of Mexico following Hurricane Delta, and crude output in Norway looked to recover following the end of an oil-worker strike. Meanwhile, private reports said several states in America are likely to see a surge in coronavirus cases in the coming weeks. In the UK, the government has imposed fresh restrictions in several areas where the virus is reportedly spreading fast. Crude oil futures for November declined $1.17 or 2.9 percent to settle at $39.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. December Brent crude fell $1.13 or 2.6 percent to settle at $41.72 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended weaker against dollar on Monday, on emergence of demand for the greenback from importers. Traders took note of report that foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have invested Rs 1,086 crore on a net basis so far in October in Indian markets, tracking encouraging factors including improved GST collection, acceleration in economic activity and positive global cues. Meanwhile, RBI in its latest data has showed that between 2015-16 and 2019-20, digital payment volumes have grown at a compounded annual growth rate of 55.1 per cent - from 5.93 billion transactions in the year to March 2016 to 34.35 billion transactions in the year to March 2020. On the global front; dollar held near three-week lows on Monday amid optimism about fiscal stimulus in the United States, while the yuan fell after China's central bank changed its policy on yuan reserves. Finally, the rupee ended at 73.28, 12 paise weaker from its previous close of 73.16 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net seller in equity segment, while net buyer in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4611.36 crore against gross selling of Rs 5866.02 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 3220.40 crore with gross sales of Rs 296.67 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4.22 crore against gross selling of Rs 29.73 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Monday as technology stocks helped to lead the markets higher, as reflected by the significant advance by the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Asian markets are trading in red on Tuesday as traders remained cautious ahead of Chinese trade figures for September which are expected to be released later in the day. Indian markets ended slightly higher after paring most gains on Monday as the power failure in Mumbai disrupted the trading activity. Today, the start of session is likely to be pessimistic amid weakness in Asian peers. Also, weak macro-economic data may dampen the sentiments in the markets. The government data showed that Industrial production declined by 8 percent in August, mainly due to lower output of manufacturing, mining and power generation sectors. Also, retail inflation rose to 7.34 percent in September, mainly on account of higher food prices. Investors will track the Supreme Court's hearing on a batch of petitions seeking a waiver of interest on loans during the moratorium period and seeking an extension of the moratorium. Besides, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that no consensus was reached on the borrowing for a shortfall in GST compensation cess. Traders will be taking encouragement with Niti Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement that the fresh stimulus package announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to boost domestic demand will give a much-needed push to economic activity. Some support will come in as India Inc cheered Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's announcement of payment of cash in lieu of LTC and Rs 10,000 festival advance to government employees, saying these measures will boost demand while instilling a feel good factor in the people and energize growth. Also, India witnessed a major drop of  54,265  new Covid-19 cases, taking the tally to 7,173,565 and the death toll reached 109,894. For the fifth day in a row, the number of active Covid-19 cases remained below 900,000. Traders may take note of Ficci President Sangita Reddy's statement that there is a need for convergence between self-reliance and globalization. Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is planning to impose an additional charge on the redemption of debt funds in stressed schemes to ensure sufficient liquidity to meet redemption stress. Telecom stocks will be in focus reacting to the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India's (TRAI) latest telecom subscription data report. Reliance Jio added 3.55 million subscribers in July 2020, while Vodafone Idea lost 3.7 million users. Bharti Airtel added 3.26 million wireless subscribers during the month. There will be some reaction in aviation stocks with Union Civil Aviation Minister Hardeep Singh Puri's statement that the total number of passengers flying in a single day increased to 1,78,431 on October 11.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

11,930.95

11,858.09

12,012.94

BSE Sensex

40,593.80

40,352.31

40,870.40

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

 

Support  (Rs)

 

Resistance (Rs)

 

(in Lacs)

State Bank of India

691.26

198.70

195.31

204.01

ITC

662.51

172.20

169.74

174.94

Wipro

529.66

377.50

371.14

381.84

Tata Motors

392.79

135.90

132.71

139.36

ICICI Bank

257.43

404.05

399.84

409.14

 

  • SBI's subsidiary -- SBI General Insurance is expecting to increase its market share among the private sector non-life players to 8.5 percent by March. 
  • JSW Steel has raised Rs 4000 crore through rated, listed, secured, redeemable, NCDs and allotted 40,000 NCDs bearing a face value of Rs 10,00,000 each on private placement. 
  • Tech Mahindra has expanded its strategic alliance with BMC Software to enable digital transformation for global enterprises. 
  • Coal India has allocated 13.86 million tonnes coal in the first five months of FY21 under the spot e-auction scheme, registering a year-on-year increase of 49.5 percent.
News Analysis