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NSE Intra-day chart (11 February 2019)
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Market Commentary 12 February 2019
Markets to make a negative start; macro-economic data eyed


Key Indian equity markets ended the Monday's trading session with the notable losses of more than 0.40% each. The markets made a negative start of the week and remained bearish throughput the day, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned governments to gear up for a possible economic storm as growth undershoots expectations. It said the bottom-line they see an economy that is growing more slowly than they had anticipated. Adding some worries among the traders, Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg said that the country actually faces shortage of capital more than the scarcity of jobs. Domestic sentiments also got hit with a private report stating that India could lose a vital US trade concession, under which it enjoys zero tariffs on $5.6 billion of exports to the United States, amid a widening dispute over its trade and investment policies. However, towards end of the session, markets managed to come off their intraday low points, tracking firm European markets. The market participants got some relief with a survey of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI) stating that higher production and a better growth outlook have instilled confidence in manufacturers in the October-December quarter of 2018-19 for ramping up hiring. Adding support, Prime Minister Narendra Modi exuded confidence that India would continue to be the fastest-growing large economy, and could be the second-largest economy in the world by 2030. Some comfort also came after the commerce ministry stated that India's exports to China has reached $12.7 billion during April-December 2018 on account of growth in shipments of marine products, chemicals, plastics, petroleum products, grapes and rice. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 151.45 points or 0.41% to 36,395.03, while the CNX Nifty was down by 54.80 points or 0.50% to 10,888.80.


The US markets ended mostly in green on Monday after a choppy session as new round of US-China trade talks in Beijing commenced. The latest round of trade negotiations between the US and China began Monday with working-level talks in Beijing, while Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are due to arrive Thursday for more high-level discussions. Even if tariffs on Chinese goods remain at 10% beyond next month's deadline, as some reports have suggested, the lingering uncertainty around a trade resolution would only highlight that a 12-month-long negotiation between the world's largest economies has failed to yield any tangible results. Meanwhile, investors are also preparing for another potential government closure after talks broke down between the main parties over whether to limit the number of migrants authorities can detain. The White House has not ruled out another shutdown if a border-security compromise cannot be reached by midnight Friday. Beside, a lack of major US economic data also kept traders on the sidelines, although reports on consumer and producer price inflation, import and export prices and industrial production are likely to attract attention in the coming days. S&P 500 gained 1.92 points or 0.07 percent to 2709.80 and Nasdaq was up by 9.71 points or 0.13 percent to 7307.90, while Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 53.22 points or 0.21 percent to 25053.11.


Crude oil futures settled lower on Monday, with energy demand concerns, signs of rising US oil production and a stronger dollar pressuring prices. The macro picture surrounding global economic situation is still very much uncertain. That continues to weigh on the demand side. Besides, investors will be watching out for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) monthly report on Tuesday, which should provide clearer insight into how the oil cartel and its allies are complying with their global output agreement. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its weekly Short-term Energy Outlook report Tuesday, which include forecasts for oil prices. The International Energy Agency's monthly oil report is due Wednesday. Benchmark crude oil futures for March declined 31 cents or 0.6 percent to settle $52.41 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. April Brent crude fell 59 cents or 1 percent to settle at $61.51 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Extending gains for the fifth straight session, Indian rupee ended higher against dollar on Monday, on persistent selling of the American currency by banks and exporters. Investor sentiment was supported with Prime Minister Narendra Modi exuding confidence that India would continue to be the fastest-growing large economy, and could be the second-largest economy in the world by 2030. Some comfort also came after the commerce ministry stated that India's exports to China has reached $12.7 billion during April-December 2018 on account of growth in shipments of marine products, chemicals, plastics, petroleum products, grapes and rice. However, dollar's strength against major global currencies overseas along with the weak trade in the local equity market capped the rupee's gain. On the global front, dollar rose on Monday as concerns grew that US-China talks this week would not heal a rift over trade between the world's largest economies. Finally, the rupee ended at 71.18, 13 paise stronger from its previous close of 71.31 on Friday.


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4433.54 crore against gross selling of Rs 3621.63 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 4022.83 crore with gross sales of Rs 1875.77 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6.78 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.09 crore.


The US markets ended mostly higher on Monday, led by industrial companies. Asian markets are trading mixed on Tuesday with investors looking to a new round of Sino-US trade talks as the world's two largest economies try to resolve a tariff dispute that has put a dent on global growth and corporate earnings. Indian markets continued their southward journey for third straight session and ended with a cut of around half a percent each on Monday as investors fretted over global uncertainties and lackluster quarterly earnings. Today, the markets are likely to make pessimistic start ahead of macro-economic data and new round of Sino-US trade talks. Market-men will be eyeing the macro economic data of industrial production and consumer price inflation to be released after the market hours. There will be some cautiousness with the Agricultural & Processed Food Products Export Development Authority's (Apeda) data showing that India's exports of agricultural commodities nosedived by up to a staggering 46 per cent in volume terms due to supply glut in the international market which prompted stockists to defer their purchase plans amid expectations of further price fall. However, traders may get some support with Electronics and IT Secretary Ajay Prakash Sawhney's statement that new schemes introduced by the government will focus not only on manufacturing of electronics in India, but also positioning the country as an export hub. Besides, a pledge by India to reduce trade imbalance through greater crude imports, US firms' concerns on the new e-commerce policy and retaliatory tariffs imposed by both nations will dominate the agenda on February 14, when officials sit down for the India-US Commercial dialogue. Meanwhile, in order to check excessive price movements, capital markets regulator SEBI proposed a slew of measures including capping the maximum daily movement of up to 20 per cent for all stocks including that are part of the future and options (F&O) segment. SEBI also granted relaxation to non-residents such as NRI, PIOs, and foreign nationals from furnishing a copy of PAN card and allowed them to transfer equity shares held by them to their immediate relatives. There will be some buzz in the banking sector stocks with report that the government is not considering any other merger proposal in public sector banks at the moment as it would wait for completion of the amalgamation of Dena Bank and Vijaya Bank with Bank of Baroda (BoB). There will be some reaction in infrastructure stocks with rating agency India Ratings & Research maintain a stable outlook on India's road and aviation sector for the financial year 2019-20. According to the report, the agency expects the infrastructure sector to remain stable in FY20 on the back of stable economic growth. There will be lots of important earnings announcements too, to keep the markets in action.


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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Nifty Top volumes




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  • BPCL has reported a fall of 76.90% in its net profit at Rs 495.14 crore for Q3FY19 as compared to Rs 2,143.74 crore for Q3FY18. 
  • Tech Mahindra has committed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 22 percent by the year 2030, from a 2016 base-year. 
  • ONGC and Oil India are likely to receive Special PSUs incentives from government of India for natural gas discoveries in difficult and unviable areas. 
  • SBI has put on sale various financial accounts to recover dues of around Rs 4,975 crore.
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