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Market Commentary 11 June 2019
Benchmarks to start marginally in green amid positive global cues

 

Indian equity bourses managed to settle with notable gains on Monday, with both the larger peers, Sensex and Nifty, closing higher by over 0.40% each. The start of the day was fabulous, aided by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das' statement that the revised guidelines to deal with stressed assets will sustain improvement in credit culture that have been ushered in by the efforts of the Government and the Reserve Bank so far and will go a long way in promoting a strong and resilient financial system in India. Traders also took support with a report that foreign investors have pumped in a net amount of Rs 7,095 crore into the Indian capital markets during the first week of June in anticipation of continued policy reforms. However, markets turned volatile in afternoon deals, after Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said that slowdown in global trade and investment is of serious concern as it adversely affects economic growth, development and job creation. He has called for de-escalating trade tensions and reviving confidence in the rules-based multilateral trading system. But, in the last leg of trade, key indices extended their gains with Moody's Investors Service stating that the RBI's revised framework for the resolution of stressed assets is credit positive, because it brings back the focus on the need for the timely resolution of such assets and the buildup of loan loss provisioning against those assets, Traders remained positive with Trade Promotion Council of India's statement that the government should take six concrete steps such as reducing cost and time of port clearance for goods and enhancing availability of credit with a view to boost exports. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 168.62 points or 0.43% to 39,784.52, while the CNX Nifty was up by 52.05 points or 0.44% to 11,922.70.

 

The US markets ended higher on Monday, with the Dow gaining for the sixth session in a row, as investors continued to snap up global equities after the US and Mexico have reached an agreement to avert President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs on all Mexican imports. President Donald said on Friday that the 5 percent tariff he threatened to impose on Mexican imports beginning today has been indefinitely suspended. The suspension of the tariff threat comes as the two countries signed a deal Trump claims will help stop the flow of migrants through Mexico and into the US. Details of the deal announced by the State Department indicated Mexico will take unprecedented steps to increase enforcement to curb irregular migration, including deploying 6,000 troops from its newly formed National Guard to its southern border. Meanwhile, Group of 20 finance leaders vowed to protect global growth from disruptions such as trade tensions. During a sideline meeting, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had a candid and constructive talk with People's Bank of China Gov. Yi Gang. However, Trump warned that the tariffs will be reinstated if Mexico's legislative body does not approve an unrevealed but very important part of the deal. The president also indicated that he would continue to use tariffs to advance American interests in trade talks with China. Trump argued that existing tariffs on Chinese imports will force China to make a deal and threatened to impose more tariffs if Chinese President Xi Jinping does not attend a planned meeting at the G-20 summit later this month. Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 78.74 points or 0.30 percent to 26062.68, Nasdaq rose 81.07 points or 1.05 percent to 7823.17 and S&P 500 was up by 13.39 points or 0.47 percent to 2886.73.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Monday as investors focused on worries about slowing global growth and uncertainty surrounded Russia's decision on whether to extend production curbs beyond their expiration this month. Meanwhile Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said he could not rule out a scenario in which oil falls to $30 a barrel if a global agreement was not extended. However, the US decision to shelve tariffs on Mexican imports provided some underlying support to oil prices. Benchmark crude oil futures for July dropped 73 cents or 1.4 percent to settle at $53.26 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. August Brent fell $1 or 1.6 percent to settle at $62.29 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee continued to slide against the American currency for the third day on Monday, on increased demand for the greenback from importers and banks. Traders remain anxious with India Meteorological Department's (IMD) data which showed that a delay in the arrival of monsoon has pushed the country's rainfall deficiency in the first nine days of June to 45%. Monsoon made an onset over Kerala on June 8, a week after its normal arrival date. This has also delayed its arrival in different parts of the country. The domestic currency was also weighed down by dollar's strengthen against some other currencies overseas along with rising crude oil prices. On the global front, pound tumbled against the dollar, after the Office for National Statistics reported the economy shrank 0.4% in April compared to March. Finally, the rupee ended at 69.65, 19 paise weaker from its previous close of 69.46 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3029.92 crore against gross selling of Rs 3414.80 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2788.81 crore with gross sales of Rs 595.54 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 14.86 crore against gross selling of Rs 16.90 crore.

 

The US markets ended in green on Monday, buoyed by relief over the White House's decision to drop a threat to hit Mexico with tariffs on billions of dollars of goods. Asian markets are trading mostly higher on Tuesday after the Trump administration shelved plans for tariffs against Mexico. Indian markets ended higher for second straight session on Monday with gains of around half a percent each. Today, the start of session is likely to be marginally in green amid positive global cues. Traders await retail inflation and industrial production data due to be released this week for cue about the health of Indian economy. Investors will be taking encouragement with report that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs 216 crore on a net basis in the cash market, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth Rs 171 crore. Traders will also be taking some support with report that SEBI proposed an informant mechanism to blow the whistle on insider trading cases, wherein genuine whistleblowers could get monetary reward of Rs 1 crore as well as amnesty from regulatory action. Some support may also come with latest data from industry body the Association of Mutual Funds of India (Amfi) showing that average Assets Under Management (AUM) of mutual funds rose to Rs 25.43 trillion in May from Rs 25.27 trillion in the previous month on the back of increased inflows into equity-linked schemes. Traders may take note of a report that banks will now provide cheque books and other facilities to basic account holders, with the Reserve Bank of India relaxing the norms on June 10. Though, the banks cannot ask the account holders to maintain any minimum balance in lieu of such facilities. There may be some cautiousness with the Crisil's report that the system-wide non-performing assets stock has declined massively to 9.3 percent in March 2019, much faster than the Reserve Bank's estimate and steeply down from 11.5 percent the year before. Bad loan recognitions accelerated largely due to a nudge from the Reserve Bank, which wanted bank balance sheets to reflect a true picture of the stress. There will be some reaction in insurance stocks with a private report indicating that the insurance industry in India saw a growth spike after privatisation, but the penetration of products still remains low.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

11,922.70

11,871.28

11,974.58

BSE Sensex

39,784.52

39,609.83

39,969.34

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Yes Bank

863.99

135.90

130.63

143.08

SBIN

205.01

344.30

340.53

347.68

Tata Motors

202.10

166.20

162.48

170.98

ICICI Bank

130.75

416.10

411.82

421.57

ONGC

108.66

164.65

162.23

168.03

 

  • Wipro has rolled out Total Operations System CREW, a fully-integrated IT product suite for global airlines. 
  • Cipla has received the EIR for the inspection done by USFDA at the Kurkumbh manufacturing facility. 
  • Tech Mahindra has signed a MoU with IIT Kanpur towards the knowledge enrichment and conducting joint research in the field of cybersecurity. 
  • JSW Steel has received approval from the NCLT for the scheme of amalgamating its four units.
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