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NSE Intra-day chart (06 September 2018)
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Market Commentary 07 September 2018
Markets to make a cautious start amid weak global cues


Snapping three days losing streak, Indian equity benchmarks ended the Thursday's trade in green terrain with frontline gauges recapturing their crucial 38,200 (Sensex) and 11,500 (Nifty) levels. Markets gained strength soon after their cautious start, as traders took encouragement with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that there is no need to worry over the steep fall in the Indian rupee's value against the US dollar as the inherent strength of the country's economy will aid in arresting the downtrend. Some support also came with the Finance Ministry's statement that Goods and Services Tax (GST) refunds can be claimed by simply submitting a printout of GSTR-2A form to tax authorities instead of giving all purchase invoices of a month. Traders also took note of the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (SEBI) statement that it would review an order tightening rules on foreign funds ownership by entities of Indian origin, after some fund managers said it could lead to massive dollar outflows. Markets pared all of their gains in noon deals to turn red, as Indian rupee touched a fresh record low of 72 against the US dollar amid concern that US President Donald Trump may order additional tariffs on China. This was the seventh consecutive fall, its longest losing streak since May 2016. However, selling proved short-lived and markets regained momentum to enter into green terrain, as market participants got some relief with private report that companies are willing to raise their staff level, and the pace of hiring is expected to be faster than last year, riding high on strong demand conditions. Optimism remained among the investors with a private report stating that Corporate India announced merger and acquisition (M&A) deals worth $34.8 billion during April-June this year, registering nearly 7-fold jump over the same period last year. Adding some comfort, Finance Ministry simplified GST refund claim process for businesses. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 224.50 points or 0.59% to 38,242.81, while the CNX Nifty was up by 59.95 points or 0.52% to 11,536.90.


Extending the decline seen over the two previous sessions, the US markets once again ended mostly lower on Thursday on mounting concerns about contagion from a handful of struggling emerging economies on top of unresolved trade tension. Technology stocks again weighed on markets, while energy shares also fell on weak crude prices. Turmoil in Argentina and Turkey, as their currencies continue to sink on deteriorating confidence, is dragging on the global market as investors fear a spillover effect on other healthier emerging markets and beyond. Besides, sentiment were under-presser following the release of a slew of US economic data, including a report from payroll processor ADP showing private sector employment rose by less than expected in the month of August. ADP said private sector employment climbed by 163,000 jobs in August after jumping by a revised 217,000 jobs in July. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management released a report showing a much bigger than expected acceleration in the pace of growth in US service sector activity in August. The ISM said its non-manufacturing index jumped to 58.5 in August from 55.7 in July, with a reading above 50 indicating growth in the service sector. On the trade front, the US and Canada continued high-stakes negotiations in the effort to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement, which President Donald Trump said he is prepared to move forward with even without Canada's participation. The S&P 500 lost 10.55 points or 0.37 percent to 2878.05 and Nasdaq declined 72.45 points or 0.91 percent to 7922.73, while Dow Jones Industrial Average added 20.88 points or 0.08 percent to 25995.87.


Magnifying their previous session's fall, Crude oil futures ended lower with prices at their lowest levels in more than two weeks on Thursday, pressured by concerns over a potential decline in global demand on the back of the US trade dispute with China and economic woes in emerging markets. Besides, prices declined despite the Energy Information Administration reported that domestic crude supplies fell by 4.3 million barrels for the week ended August 31. That was larger than the 2.5 million-barrel fall expected by S&P Global Platts, and the decrease of 1.2 million barrels reported by the American Petroleum Institute. Benchmark crude oil futures for October fell 95 cents or 1.4 percent to settle at $67.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. November Brent crude dropped 77 cents or 1% to settle at $76.50 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchanged.


Continuing its record closing low for the seventh straight day, Indian rupee ended considerably weaker against the Greenback on Thursday, on fresh bouts of dollar demand from importers. Market participants remained worried over sustained foreign capital outflows and widening current account deficit in the wake of soaring crude oil prices. Moreover, weakness in emerging currencies overseas against the dollar too weighed on the domestic currency. Traders failed to take support with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that there is no need to worry over the steep fall in the Indian rupee's value against the US dollar as the inherent strength of the country's economy will aid in arresting the downtrend. On the global front, dollar held steady on Thursday amid growing concerns that US President Donald Trump would impose further tariffs on Chinese imports, though a bounce in European currencies impeded a broader rally by the greenback. Finally, the rupee ended at 71.98, 20 paise weaker from its previous close of 71.78 on Wednesday.


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5575.54 crore against gross selling of Rs 5890.43 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 639.07 crore with gross sales of Rs 1761.47 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, gross selling was of Rs 0.05 crore against no buying.


The US markets ended mostly lower on Thursday with technology shares falling on worries about government regulation and uncertain demand in some segments. Asian markets were trading mostly lower on Friday as investors feared a new round of Sino-US tariffs could come at any moment, while a slump in US chip stocks rippled through the tech sector. The Indian markets snapped three day losing streak and staged a strong recovery on Thursday, tacking rebound in European markets along with value buying in beaten-down stocks. Today, the markets are likely to make a cautious start amid weak global cues. There will be some cautiousness with NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant's statement that India needs to cut down on oil imports and switch towards electric mobility, and stressed on the Centre's focus towards urban mobility. However, traders may take some support with Union Minister for Commerce and Industry Suresh Prabhu's statement that with phenomenal changes in social and economic sector reforms, India will become a five-trillion-dollar economy in seven years from the present 2.6 trillion dollars. Traders will also be reacting to a report that India and the US on September 6, pledged to expand their bilateral trade and economic partnership with a view to promoting investment and job creation. There will be some reaction among the public sector banks (PSBs) stocks with report that a parliamentary committee has urged the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to relax the capital-adequacy norms for at least nine out of 21 PSBs that may free up capital up to Rs 5.34 trillion, helping the expansion of lenders. There will be some buzz in the tyre sector stocks with ICRA's report that expected decline in the Indian natural rubber (NR) output by 18 to 20% this fiscal year will adversely impact the tyre industry. It has cited the flood in Kerala due to unusually high rainfall as the cause for the sharp fall in NR which accounts for 35% of the overall input costs in the manufacture of tyres. There may be some buzz in gold related stocks with a private report that India's gold imports more than doubled in August to hit their highest level in 15 months as lower prices prompted manufacturers to replenish inventory for a jewellery exhibition.


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  • ONGC has made oil and gas discoveries in Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal that may potentially open up two new sedimentary basins in the country.
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