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NSE Intra-day chart (05 May 2020)
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Market Commentary 06 May 2020
Markets to get cautious start amid sharp rise in crude oil prices

 

Indian equity benchmarks traded with a positive bias for most part of the day but selling activity which took place during late hour of trade mainly forced the markets to cut all of their gains and ended Tuesday's session in red terrain, amid selling in Realty, Banking and Finance counters. The benchmarks staged a gap up opening, following firm cues from their global peers. Traders found some support with report that the RBI is considering a proposal for extending the moratorium on bank loans by another three months to help people and industry impacted by the ongoing lockdown to contain COVID-19, with further extension of the nationwide lockdown. Market participants took note of report that market regulator SEBI has said that entities providing capital and debt market services will continue to remain operational during the nationwide lockdown which has been extended for another two weeks to contain the spread of Covid-19. Though, key indices failed to hold initial gains and slid lower in the last hour of trading, amid cooling off buying interest across sectors. Some anxiety also came with domestic rating agency ICRA estimating that the India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) might contract by as much as 20 per cent in the first quarter of current financial year (Q1FY21) and is expected to overcome some lost ground in the remainder of the year but still close FY21 down by up to 2 per cent after the government announced graded relaxations in the lockdown. Investors also awaited January-March earnings from large cap companies such as ICICI Bank due this week for domestic cues. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 261.84 points or 0.83% to 31,453.51, while the CNX Nifty was down by 87.90 points or 0.95% to 9,205.60.

 

The US markets ended higher on Tuesday, extending the rebound seen over the course of the previous session, buoyed by optimism about a gradual reopening of businesses around the country. California detailed initial steps to ease restrictions that have been in place for weeks to try to stop the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo reiterated his call for federal aid for New York, the epicenter of the pandemic, a day after he outlined a pathway to reopening parts of his state, but also stressed that such decisions boil down to how much a human life is worth. Besides, rising crude oil prices also bolstered equity benchmarks as Wall Street looked to corporate earnings for an outlook on the pandemic, with Disney's results in focus after the close. Besides, Healthcare stocks showed a significant move to the upside during the trading day, driving the Dow Jones US Health Care Index up by 2.2 percent. Significant strength was also visible among networking stocks, as reflected by the 1.8 percent jump by the NYSE Arca Networking Index. On the economic data front, a report released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed US service sector activity contracted for the first time since December of 2009 in the month of April. The ISM said its non-manufacturing index tumbled to 41.8 in April from 52.5 in March, with a reading below 50 indicating a contraction in service sector activity. The non-manufacturing index slumped to its lowest level since hitting 40.1 in March of 2009 but still came in above street estimates for a reading of 36.8. Meanwhile, with the value of exports showing a steeper drop than the value of imports, the Commerce Department released a report showing a notable increase in the US trade deficit in the month of March. The report said the trade deficit widened to $44.4 billion in March from $39.8 billion in February. The trade deficit was expected to widen to $44.0 billion.

 

Crude oil futures ended sharply higher on Tuesday, extending their previous session's gains, as investors wagered on a slowdown in production and a gradual increase in appetite for the commodity as business lockdowns intended to curtail the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic are rolled back.  An agreement between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, to reduce output by 9.7 million barrels a day in May and June officially began on May 1. Separately, some US oil have also announced plans for voluntary output reductions, including ConocoPhillips. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said oil prices moving up nicely as demand begins again. Crude oil futures for June surged $4.17 or 20.5 percent to settle at $24.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. July Brent crude rose $3.77 or 13.9 percent to settle at $30.97 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended marginally higher against dollar on Tuesday, on selling of dollars by banks and exporters. Traders took some support with report that the RBI is considering a proposal for extending the moratorium on bank loans by another three months to help people and industry impacted by the ongoing lockdown to contain COVID-19, with further extension of the nationwide lockdown. Positive trend in equity market too supported the rupee. However, gains remain capped as anxiety remained among the traders with domestic rating agency Icra estimating that the India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) might contract by as much as 20 per cent in the first quarter of current financial year (Q1FY21) and is expected to overcome some lost ground in the remainder of the year but still close FY21 down by up to 2 per cent after the government announced graded relaxations in the lockdown. On the global front, U.S. dollar edged higher for a second consecutive day on Tuesday as traders worried about rising tensions between the United States and China, while the Australian dollar gained thanks to a bounce in oil prices. Finally, the rupee ended at 75.63, 10 paise stronger from its previous close of 75.73 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5775.86 crore against gross selling of Rs 6710.16 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 812.68 crore with gross sales of Rs 1107.26 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 29.43 crore against gross selling of Rs 25.80 crore.

 

The US markets closed in green on Tuesday buoyed by optimism about a gradual reopening of businesses around the country. Asian markets are trading mostly higher on Wednesday as oil prices continued to move higher. Indian markets wipeout all gains and ended lower on Tuesday amid concerns over muted corporate earnings and increased uncertainty over the economic situation due to extended lockdown. Today, the markets are likely to make a cautious start amid rise in crude oil prices overnight coupled with concerns over rising coronavirus cases in India. As per latest data shared by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, coronavirus cases in India are racing towards 47,000 even as COVID-19 related death count is set to touch 1600-mark. There will be also some cautiousness with ICRA's report that the incremental credit growth in the year ending March 2020 declined by 64% from Rs 16.79 lakh crore in the previous year to Rs 6.04 lakh crore. Also, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) has said the Covid-19 crisis has led to a spike in the country's unemployment rate to 27.11% for the week ended May 3, up from the under 7% level before the start of the pandemic in mid-March. Though, traders may take note of Global ratings agency S&P's statement that additional financial stimulus is necessary in India to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the country's weak fiscal position. Meanwhile, the government has hiked excise duty by a record Rs 10 per litre on petrol and Rs 13 per litre on diesel to garner Rs 1.6 trillion additional revenue as it repeated its time-tested formula of not passing on gains arising from a slump in international oil prices. There will be some buzz in the gems and jewellery stocks with a private report that India's gold imports plunged 99.9% year-on-year in April to their lowest in nearly three decades as air travel was banned and jewellery shops were closed amid a nationwide lockdown to curb the spread of coronavirus. Tourism industry stocks will be in focus as apex sectoral body Federation of Associations in Indian Tourism & Hospitality (FAITH) doubled its loss guidance for India's tourism sector to Rs 10 lakh crore on account of impact of COVID-19 pandemic. There will be some reaction in cotton related industry stocks with Care Rating's report that Indian cotton yarn industry is likely to witness a decline in revenue and moderation in profit margins in the short-term due to weak demand and shutting of manufacturing units following the COVID-19 pandemic. Investors will be eyeing the Markit Services PMI data for April to be released later in the day. Also, there will be lots of earnings reaction based on the performance of the companies. 

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9,205.60

9,113.93

9,374.08

BSE Sensex

31,453.51

31,150.05

32,010.48

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

 

Support  (Rs)

 

Resistance (Rs)

 

(in Lacs)

State Bank of India

910.51

170.40

165.72

178.17

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

618.66

78.45

77.10

80.85

Tata Motors

571.23

80.90

78.60

85.00

Axis Bank

509.83

389.00

377.42

409.67

ICICI Bank

450.72

330.85

324.27

342.72

 

  • NTPC has resumed construction activities of the Telangana Super Thermal Power Project in Telangana. 
  • TCS has launched TCS WaferWise to help chip makers digitally reimagine their product quality assurance process. 
  • Tata Motors has received approval from its authorized Committee to raise Rs 1000 crore via issue of Rated, Listed, Unsecured, Redeemable, NCDs. 
  • ICICI Bank is planning to raise funds by way of issuance of debt securities.
News Analysis