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NSE Intra-day chart (03 July 2018)
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Market Commentary 04 July 2018
Markets to make pessimistic start amid weak global cues

Recouping some of their previous session's losses, Indian equity benchmarks ended the Tuesday's trade in green terrain with frontline gauges ending just shy of their crucial 10,700 (Nifty) and 35,400 (Sensex) levels. Markets soon after a flat start gained momentum and traded with traction during the day as traders took some encouragement with Finance Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that India will be able to restrict the fiscal deficit below the budgeted level of 3.3 per cent of GDP in 2018-19, which has hit 55% of the annual target in the first two months of the financial year. Traders also took some support with Commerce Minister Suresh Prabhu's statement that early data indicate that exports have registered a good performance in June despite volatility in global markets. Some support also came with report highlighting that a widespread makeover is being witnessed in the Indian economy especially on the poverty reduction front as goods and services tax (GST) completes one year since its introduction last year. Adding to the sanguinity, the commerce ministry stated that India has agreed to provide tariff concessions on 3,142 products to the six member nations of the Asia Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA) effective from July 01. The markets took note of the Labour Ministry's statement that retail inflation for industrial workers remained flat at 3.96% in May compared to 3.97% in April this year. The food inflation based on CPI-IW stood at 1.66% in May against 1.33% in the previous month. However, gains remained capped up to certain levels as traders remained concerned over ongoing trade tensions between world's largest economies US and China. Meanwhile, growth in output of the crucial eight core industries declined to a 10-month low of 3.6% in May due to a fall in the pace of growth of steel, cement as well as contraction in crude and natural gas. This might have an adverse impact on the index of industrial production (IIP) as core industries have 40% weightage in the index. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 114.19 points or 0.32% to 35,378.60, while the CNX Nifty was up by 42.60 points or 0.40% to 10,699.90.

 

The US markets ended in red on Tuesday as a swift sell-off in the final hours of trading wiped out earlier gains and snapped a three-day winning streak for the market. The trading session was shortened ahead of the Independence Day holiday. Trading volumes were lower than normal because of the Fourth of July holiday. Markets closed at 1p.m. Eastern, three hours earlier than normal, and they will be closed all day on Wednesday. Sentiments also remain dampened on lingering trade concerns as tariffs on billions of dollars worth of US and Chinese goods are set to take effect later this week. In a move that could further inflame trade tensions between the US and China, President Trump's administration has recommended blocking China Mobile from offering telecommunications services from within the US. However, the markets opened firmly higher, following gains in European equities, which were boosted after a last-minute deal on immigration in Germany. With the agreement in place, Chancellor Angela Merkel's fragile coalition government stepped back from a full-blown crisis that could have cost Merkel her position as German leader. On economic front, the Commerce Department released a report showing an unexpected rebound in new orders for manufactured goods in the month of May. The Commerce Department said factory orders climbed by 0.4 percent in May after falling by a revised 0.4 percent in April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 132.36 points or 0.54 percent to 24174.82, the S&P 500 dropped 13.49 points or 0.49 percent to 2713.22 and the Nasdaq was down by 65.01 points or 0.86 percent to 7502.67.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Tuesday, after a volatile trading session, as traders weighed prospects for global crude supplies against a backdrop of output disruptions in Libya and Canada and expectations for higher production from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Further, traders also looked ahead to weekly US data that are expected to reveal further declines in US crude inventories. Though, Abu Dhabi said it's prepared to raise oil output in line with guidance set by the agreement reached last month between OPEC and its allies. Benchmark crude oil futures for August delivery gained 20 cents or 0.3 percent to settle at $74.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. September Brent crude rose 46 cents or 0.6 percent at $77.76 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Recouping yesterday's steep losses, Indian rupee gained ground against dollar and ended higher on Tuesday, on persistent selling of the American currency by exporters. Sentiments turned optimistic with Finance Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that India will be able to restrict the fiscal deficit below the budgeted level of 3.3 per cent of GDP in 2018-19, which has hit 55% of the annual target in the first two months of the financial year. Traders also took some support with Commerce Minister Suresh Prabhu's statement that early data indicate that exports have registered a good performance in June despite volatility in global markets. Besides, the dollar losing muscle against other currencies overseas along with positive trend in equity markets too supported the rupee. On the global front, dollar moved lower against most major currencies on Tuesday, with its biggest rival - the euro -climbing as the risk of a major political crisis in Germany receded after Chancellor Angela Merkel struck a deal on immigration. Finally, the rupee ended at 68.60, 19 paise stronger from its previous close of 68.79 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4987.49 crore against gross selling of Rs 4829.20 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 198.42 crore with gross sales of Rs 212.31 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.31 crore against gross selling of Rs 1.28 crore.

 

The US markets ended a holiday-shortened session in negative territory on Tuesday, amid lingering trade concerns as tariffs on billions of dollars worth of US and Chinese goods are set to take effect later this week. Asian markets were trading mostly in red on Wednesday, with Japanese markets lagging other Asian majors as trade jitters continued to simmer ahead of a deadline when tariffs are due to take effect. Indian equity benchmarks ended Tuesday's trading session in the green, as investors overlooked lingering trade tensions in Asia ahead of the deadline for imposition of tariffs by the US on China. Today, the start is likely to be slightly negative, amid weak global cues. Traders will also be eyeing services sector data for June slated to be released later in the day. Traders will be concern with the rating agency ICRA's report that Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) plan to change disbursement norms of working capital would exert pressure on the liquidity profile of borrowers, specifically those having a high dependence on cash credit or overdraft facilities while lacking alternative sources of liquidity. There may be some cautiousness with a report that the five-pronged strategy recommended by the panel of bankers for resolution of bad loans is a useful long-term concept, but tighter deadlines and near-term funding challenges remain. However, investors may get some support later in the day with NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar's statement that the Indian economy is on the cusp of a major sustained and ongoing recovery and poised to grow above 8% from the next year, thanks to a slew of measures taken by the government in the last few years. Besides, the Centre will announce new Minimum Support Price (MSP) of all Kharif (summer-sown) crops for the 2018-19 marketing season. There will be buzz in coal sector stocks with a private report that coal imports in the first two months of the ongoing fiscal registered a marginal decline of 2.6% at 36.49 million tonnes (MT).


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10,699.90

10,649.00

10,732.05

BSE Sensex

35,378.60

35,234.42

35,484.00

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

SBI

160.99

257.50

255.63

260.13

Vedanta 

158.52

231.05

228.67

234.82

ICICI Bank

140.20

272.90

271.13

275.73

ONGC

120.88

157.70

154.40

161.30

Tata Motors

114.84

269.45

267.27

271.57

 

  • Dr. Reddy's Laboratories has launched Repatha 140 mg/ml, the first and only PCSK9 Inhibitor available in India, approved by the DCGI. 
  • Hero MotoCorp has sold 704,562 units of motorcycles and scooters in June 2018. 
  • ITC is planning to add 2,500 rooms to its hotel segment to take the total count to 12,000 rooms in the next five years from the current count of 9,500 rooms.  
  • Tech Mahindra has entered into partnership with New York City-based cybersecurity company LIFARS to offer advanced managed threat detection and response service for customers.
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