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NSE Intra-day chart (02 November 2017)
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Market Commentary 03 November 2017
Markets to get a flat-to-positive start

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended the volatile session of trade with marginal losses on Thursday, as traders opted to book some profit with key indices touching the all time high, amid weak global cues. Markets traded cautiously throughout the day, as traders remained on sidelines awaiting the formal nomination of the next head of the central bank. However, losses remained capped as traders took some solace with private report stating that India's current account deficit (CAD) for this financial year is expected to be around $ 40 billion, or 1.5 per cent of GDP. CAD rose sharply to $ 14.3 billion, 2.4 per cent of GDP, at the end of first quarter of 2017-18. Report highlighted that July-September CAD is expected at about 1.6% of GDP and accordingly, CAD for the first half of this fiscal (April- September) is likely to be around 2% of GDP. Traders also took some comfort with Former Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das' statement that improvement in ease of doing business is extremely relevant and will promote private investment, growth and job creation. Separately, after a record jump of 30 places in the World Bank's ease of doing business ranking, India is gearing up to leapfrog into the top 50 with around 90 specific reforms lined up for various ministries. The reforms covering seven ministries are to be implemented by May next year with a focus on reducing the number of processes and moving them online. The maximum improvements targeted are in the areas of construction permits (22) and registering property (14), areas where India still has a low rank. Investors took note that the government may nudge cash surplus central public sector enterprises (CPSEs) to invest in the proposed Rs 1.35 lakh crore bond offering to recapitalize public sector banks. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 27.05 points or 0.08% to 33,573.22, while the CNX Nifty was down by 16.70 points or 0.16% to 10,423.80.

 

The US markets closed mostly higher on Thursday, as the much-anticipated tax plan by House Republicans was unveiled and as President Donald Trump nominated Fed. Governor Jerome Powell to run the Federal Reserve, as had been widely expected. House Republicans introduced the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which is aimed at cutting corporate taxes and repealing taxes paid by large estates. However, it is unclear when and if the bill will pass. Hopes for tax cuts have been credited for some market gains over the past year. However, Thursday's bill details sent stocks, bonds yields and the dollar lower as traders weighed its chances of passage and its composition. Separately, Trump nominated Powell to replace Chairwoman Janet Yellen, whose term ends in February. He is viewed as a nominee who will be measured in his approach to raising borrowing costs and who also is favorable to scaling back Wall Street regulations. On the economy front, initial US jobless claims, a tool to measure layoffs, fell by 5,000 to 229,000 in the week ended October 28. The more stable monthly average of claims declined by 7,250 to 232,500 and hit the lowest level since April 1973. The number of people already collecting unemployment benefits, known as continuing claims, dropped by 15,000 to 1.88 million. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 81.25 points or 0.35 percent to 23,516.26, the S&P 500 edged higher by 0.49 points or 0.02 percent to 2,579.85, while the Nasdaq dropped 1.59 points or 0.02 percent to 6,714.94.

 

Crude oil futures settled higher on Thursday, as supply cuts by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major exporters tightened the market despite higher production in the United States. OPEC decided to extend cuts in oil output by nine months to March 2018. The producer group is coping with a global glut of crude oil after seeing prices halve and revenues drop sharply in the recent past.  The cuts are likely to be shared again by a dozen non-OPEC members led by top oil producer Russia, which reduced output in tandem with OPEC from January. Russian oil output edged up to 10.93 million bpd in October from 10.91 million bpd in September, but the country remains in compliance with the deal to curb output. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that supply and demand balances were tightening and oil inventories falling, while compliance with the OPEC-led pact to curb supplies had been excellent.Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery ended higher by 24 cents at $ 54.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery was up by 13 cents to $60.62 a barrel on the ICE.

 

Snapping its three-day gaining streak, Indian rupee ended marginally weaker against the American currency on Thursday, due to fresh dollar demand from banks and importers amid foreign fund outflows. Sentiments were down despite the private report stating that India's Current Account Deficit (CAD) for this financial year is expected to be around $40 billion, or 1.5% of GDP. CAD rose sharply to $14.3 billion, 2.4% of GDP, at the end of first quarter of 2017-18. Besides, some losses in the domestic equity market too affected the rupee, but dollar's weakness against some currencies overseas kept the fall to a minimum. On the global front, dollar fell on Thursday, giving up some of its gains this week, as investors took profits after the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, as expected, with markets widely expecting a rate hike at its next meeting. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.61, 2 paise weaker from its previous close of 64.59 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6128.05 crore against gross selling of Rs 5085.52 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 675.36 crore with gross sales of Rs 971.67 crore.

 

The US markets ended on mostly in green on Thursday after the Labor Department released a report showing an unexpected drop in initial jobless claims in the week ended October 28, 2017. Asian markets have made a mixed start on Friday, as investors digested the release of House Republicans' tax-reform plan and President Trump's nomination of Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Governor, to be the next head of the central bank. The Indian markets ended the Thursday's trade slightly in red, as traders opted to book some profit with key indices touching the all time highs. Today, the start is likely to be flat to mildly in green. Traders will be taking support some encouragement with the government's statement that it has approved foreign direct investment (FDI) proposals worth Rs 24.56 crore, including one from Sterling Commerce Solutions India. Stocks related to textile sector will remain buzzing with exporters' body FIEO stating huge business opportunities exist in the UAE for domestic textile and apparel sector. Information Technology stocks will continue to remain in focus with Nasscom's president R Chandrashekhar's statement that India's IT industry could see an upturn next year as the process of investments in technology, particularly in the United States, has started to gather momentum. Aviation stocks will get some support with report that the government is developing a comprehensive 25-year master plan for airports in the country to keep pace with air traffic growth. The Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) estimated that India will need an investment of upto $45 billion to create an additional capacity of handling 500-600 million passengers at its airports by 2030. Meanwhile, there will be lots of earnings announcements too will keep the markets in action. 

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10423.80

10406.57

10447.02

BSE Sensex

33573.22

33514.29

33644.86

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

ICICI Bank

277.36

316.65

311.90

320.90

SBI

231.11

314.35

310.88

320.48

Bharti Airtel

98.71

543.20

533.02

550.97

ITC

96.84

265.65

263.98

268.63

Yes Bank

92.45

320.45

317.80

323.50

 

  • HDFC Bank has inaugurated nine SmartUp Zones in Bengaluru.
  • Bharti Airtel will invest Rs 25,000 crore in expanding and strengthening its 4G network during the ongoing fiscal year instead of Rs 20,000 crore announced earlier.
  • Coal India has reported provisional production of 46.14 MT in October 2017, as against a target of 49.47 MT.
  • Lupin has launched Doxycycline Hyclate Tablets USP, 75 mg and 150 mg having received an approval from the USFDA earlier.
News Analysis