Dalal Street bade adieu to the
Calendar Year 2019 on a weak note, with Sensex & Nifty closing lower by
over 0.70% each. After a sluggish start, indices remained negative throughout
the session, amid a private report that the government might breach the fiscal
deficit target this financial year amid drop in the revenue mobilisation and
expected additional expenditure by the government. Adding more worries, rating
agency ICRA stated that muted economic growth, lower working capital
requirements and risk aversion among lenders have compressed the incremental
credit growth in current financial year (April 2019 to March 2020). In last leg
of the trade, markets extended losses, as Ind-Ra said that the aggregate fiscal
deficit of states will touch 3 per cent gross domestic product in FY20 against
the budgeted figure of 2.6 per cent. The fiscal slippage will originate from a
decline in tax revenue, a lower nominal GDP & higher expenditure. The
street overlooked Secretary in DPIIT, Guruprasad Mohapatra's statement that
enthused by a record foreign investment inflow, India is optimistic of
continuing to be one of the world's favourite FDI destinations in 2020 on the
back of the Modi government's liberalised norms & a significant jump in
ease of doing business ranking. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 304.26 points or
0.73% to 41253.74, while the CNX Nifty was down by 87.40 points or 0.71% to
12168.45.
The US markets ended higher with
gains of over quarter a percent on the final trading day of 2019, on the back
of positive report on the international trade front, as President Donald Trump
said that the phase one trade deal will be signed during a White House ceremony
on January 15th. Earlier Tuesday, trade adviser Peter Navarro said that the
deal was in the bank and that the Trump administration was just waiting to
review a Chinese translation of the 86-page agreement. Besides, for the year, the Nasdaq spiked by
35.2 percent and the S&P 500 soared by 29.6 percent, recording their best
gains since 2013. The Dow also jumped by 22.3 percent, turning in its best year
since 2017. However, the New Year's Day holiday on Wednesday kept some traders
away from their desks, contributing to quiet trading session. On the economic
front, a report released by the Conference Board showed US consumer confidence
dipped from an upwardly revised level in the month of December. The Conference
Board said its consumer confidence index edged down to 126.5 in December from
an upwardly revised 126.8 in November. Street had expected the consumer
confidence index to rise to 128.2 from the 125.5 originally reported for the
previous month. The report said the expectations index slid to 97.4 in December
from 100.3 in November, as consumers were moderately less upbeat about the
short-term outlook. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions
to improve over the next six months inched up to 18.9 percent from 18.6
percent, while those expecting conditions will worsen fell to 9.3 percent from
11.4 percent.
Crude oil futures ended lower in
the final trading session of 2019, but logged the biggest yearly gains for both
major crude benchmarks in three years.
WTI, the US benchmark, logged a 2019 gain of 34.5%, its strongest since
a 45% rally in 2016. Brent, the global benchmark, advanced 22.7% this year, its
biggest yearly gain since a 52.4% jump in 2016. Tensions in the Middle East,
the extended output cuts by OPEC and allies, easing concerns about outlook for
energy demand following positive developments on Sino-US trade front
contributed to oil's rise in recent sessions. Crude oil futures for February
dropped 62 cents or 1 percent to settle at $61.06 a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. March Brent fell 67 cents or 1 percent to settle at $66 a
barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.
Indian
rupee ended marginally lower against dollar on Tuesday, due to fresh demand for
the American currency from banks and importers. Trading sentiments remained
weak with India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) stating that the aggregate fiscal
deficit of states will touch 3 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) in FY20
against the budgeted figure of 2.6 per cent. The fiscal slippage will originate
from a decline in tax revenue, a lower nominal GDP and higher expenditure.
Subdued domestic equity markets and high crude oil prices also weighed on the
domestic unit. However, losses remain capped as some optimism remained among
the traders with Secretary in the DPIIT Guruprasad Mohapatra's statement that
enthused by a record foreign investment inflow, India is optimistic of
continuing to be one of the world's favourite FDI destinations in 2020 on the
back of the Modi government's liberalised norms and a significant jump in the
ease of doing business ranking. On the global front, euro and British pound
rose as the dollar weakened on Tuesday as investors saw global growth improving
next year, with the United States and China due to finally sign a Phase 1 trade
agreement this week. Finally, the rupee ended at 71.36, 5 paise weaker from its
previous close of 71.31 on Monday.
The
FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were
net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs
3849.75 crore against gross selling of Rs 3571.04 crore, while in the debt
segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2684.07 crore with gross sales of Rs
3803.29 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3.39
crore against gross selling of Rs 2.97 crore.
The US markets ended higher as
President Donald Trump said that Phase 1 of trade deal with China would be
signed on January 15 at the White House. Most of the Asian markets are closed
on Wednesday on account of the New Year holiday. Indian markets ended last day
of CY19 in the red with investors shying away from taking fresh positions on
concerns that the government will breach its fiscal deficit target. Today, the start of the New Year is likely to
be soft-to-cautious on sluggish regional cues. Traders may remain concern with
Controller General of Accounts in its latest data showing that Fiscal deficit
of the Union government rose to 114.8 per cent of the target in the first eight
months of the fiscal year. The gap between the government's revenue and
spending stood at Rs 8.07 trillion at the end of November - Rs 1 trillion (13
per cent) more than the full-year target. Also, there will be some concern on
report that the output of eight core infrastructure industries contracted for
the fourth consecutive month in November by 1.5 per cent. Since August, the
eight core industries are recording negative growth. The output of coal, crude
oil, natural gas, steel, and electricity declined by 2.5 per cent, 6 per cent,
6.4 per cent, 3.7 per cent and 5.7 per cent respectively. However, some respite
may come later in the day on report that India's current account deficit (CAD)
narrowed to 0.9 per cent of GDP, or $6.3 billion, in the September 2019
quarter, on account of lower trade deficit. It had stood at 2.9 per cent of
gross domestic product (GDP), or $19 billion, in the corresponding quarter of
2018-19. On a sequential basis, CAD had printed 2 per cent of GDP, or $14.2
billion, in the June 2019 quarter. Traders will be getting some encouragement
with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman unveiling Rs 102 trillion of
infrastructure projects, including Mumbai - Ahmedabad High Speed rail, in the
next five years to help achieve the target of $5 trillion (around Rs 356
trillion) economy by 2025. There will be some reaction in energy sector related
stocks on report that to improve energy access and sustainability, the Central
government's National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) to enhance its focus on the
power sector with more than Rs 24 trillion of investment envisaged for the
sector. The government expects major private players to contribute a major
share. There will be some buzz in the NBFC stocks with the Reserve Bank of
India (RBI) extending the availability of relaxed terms for sale of assets by
non-bank lenders to banks to June 30, 2020. The dispensation was earlier set to
expire on December 31, 2019. The rules for securitisation transactions were
first relaxed on November 29, 2018, months after a liquidity crisis emerged in
the wake of the collapse of the Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services
(IL&FS) group.
Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE Nifty
|
12,168.45
|
12,131.13
|
12,226.43
|
BSE Sensex
|
41,253.74
|
41,089.82
|
41,512.58
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
Yes Bank
|
1,414.22
|
46.95
|
46.18
|
47.88
|
Tata Motors
|
528.70
|
185.15
|
181.83
|
188.18
|
SBI
|
238.02
|
333.75
|
332.08
|
335.88
|
GAIL (India)
|
135.09
|
121.05
|
119.13
|
122.63
|
Vedanta
|
130.27
|
152.45
|
151.13
|
154.63
|
NTPC has added capacity of 800 MW unit of Darlipali Super Thermal Power Project to Installed Capacity of company on successful completion of Trial Operation.
Reliance Industries has started its web portal Jiomart.
Hero MotoCorp has launched the first BS-VI motorcycle in the entry segment - the HF Deluxe BS-VI.
Indian Oil Corporation will invest over Rs 222 billion on the long-awaited capacity expansion and upgradation project for its Gujarat refinery on the outskirts of Vadodara.