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Market Commentary 30 January 2017
Markets to make a cautious start of budget week

 

Indian equity indices staged a decent performance on the last day of the week by gaining around half percent in the session. Wednesday's optimism got spilled over into the Friday's session helping the frontline indices in extending the winning momentum for fourth successive session as investors remain optimistic ahead of the Union Budget next week. Besides, better than expected corporate earnings also aided the sentiments. Investors remained optimistic after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley put up a spirited defence of demonetisation, saying the drive 'shook' the financial system for a short while, but will integrate the shadow economy with the formal in the long run and ensure better tax compliance. He also said most contentious issues regarding the Goods and Services Tax (GST) have been sorted out between the Centre and states and the new indirect tax regime is at the final stages of implementation. Furthermore, market participants got some comfort with the report indicating that money in circulation is rising again in India post-demonetisation period and at the current rate, currency-to-GDP ratio will reach about 9 per cent by March -- sufficient to stabilise economic activity. According to report, the negative effects of demonetisation on growth are likely to be transitory as demand conditions are likely to re-surface after remonetisation and the economy is expected to see a V-shaped recovery. Some support also came in on report that foreign institutional investors bought shares worth Rs 1378.81 crore on January 25, 2017. However, gains remained capped with Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) statement that business sentiments of the Indian manufacturing sector deteriorated in the third quarter of the current financial year and are likely to decline in the fourth quarter. The survey, which conducted between October and December, shows that businesses were less optimistic about several parameters like order books, capacity utilisation and imports. The mood around exports, however, improved reflecting a recent pick-up in export growth. On the global front, Asian markets ended mostly lower on Friday amid a deepening rift between the U.S. and Mexico and ahead of U.S. fourth-quarter advance GDP figures on tap later in the day. Back home, finally, the BSE Sensex gained 174.32 points or 0.63% to 27882.46, while the CNX Nifty was up by 38.50 points or 0.45% to 8,641.25. 

 

The US markets traded choppy and ended almost flat on Friday, as traders remained reluctant to make significant moves amid uncertainty about the near-term outlook for the markets following recent strength. The major averages spent much of the day lingering near the unchanged line, as traders digested the mixed batch of earnings news released by several big-name technology companies after the close of trading on Thursday. On the economic front, the Commerce Department released a report showing economic growth in the U.S. slowed by more than anticipated in the final three months of 2016. The gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter following a 3.5 percent jump in the third quarter. Street had expected GDP to climb by 2.2 percent. The slowdown was largely due to the impact of fluctuations in trade and said the third and fourth quarters together indicate a strong second half. Meanwhile, a separate report from the Commerce Department showed durable goods orders unexpectedly declined in December amid a continued decrease in orders for transportation equipment. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders fell by 0.4 percent in December after tumbling by a revised 4.8 percent in November. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.16 points or 0.04 percent to 20,093.78, S&P 500 was down by 1.99 points or 0.09 percent to 2,294.69, while the Nasdaq added 5.61 points or 0.10 percent to 5,660.78.

 

Crude oil futures declined on Friday, after rig count figures hit sentiment by highlighting how rapidly small producers can respond to higher prices and investors also noted weaker than expected economic growth in the last quarter of 2016. Baker Hughes Inc reported that U.S. Drillers added 15 oil rigs in the week to Jan. 27, bringing he total count to 566, the most since November 2015. Benchmark crude oil futures for March delivery declined by $0.61 or 1.1 percent to $53.17 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for March delivery ended down by $0.74 or 1.28 percent at $55.52 on the ICE.

 

Extending gains for the third straight session, Indian rupee ended marginally stronger against dollar on Friday, due to selling of greenback by banks and importers. Market participants got some comfort with the report indicating that money in circulation is rising again in India post-demonetisation period and at the current rate, currency-to-GDP ratio will reach about 9 per cent by March -- sufficient to stabilise economic activity. Some support also came with Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that the Indian economy is set to grow at a healthy rate in spite of the global economic slowdown in the coming years, because of important initiatives taken by the present NDA Government that are demonetisation, encouraging free trade and Goods and Services Tax (GST). On the global front, yen came under pressure on Friday with Bank of Japan's (BOJ) decision to increase purchases at regular JGB-buying operation was seen as a message that tapering of the central bank's asset-purchase program is off the table at its policy meeting on Tuesday next week. Finally, the rupee ended at 68.03, 4 paise stronger from its previous close of 68.07 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8879.99 crore against gross selling of Rs 7645.91 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 200.26 crore with gross sales of Rs 784.51 crore.

 

The US markets made a mixed closing in last session after a lack luster trade, s investors weighed disappointing fourth-quarter data on domestic economic growth and a spate of earnings. The Asian markets have made a mixed start, concerned over the immigration policy of the US President Donald Trump. The Indian markets continued their upmove in last session and the benchmarks added another about half a percent to the gains. Today, the start of the Budget week is likely to be a bit cautious on mixed global cues, traders will be reacting to some mixed earnings announcements during the weekend. Though, there will be some support to the markets once after recovering from the initial hiccups, with the tax department assuaging investors concern ahead of implementation of GAAR from April 1. The Central Board of Direct Taxes said in clarifications on GAAR, has said aid adequate procedural safeguards are in place to ensure that General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR), which seek to prevent companies from routing transactions through other countries to avoid taxes, are invoked in 'a uniform, fair and rational manner'. There will be some action in the aviation stocks on a report from A NITI Aayog that air traffic grew 23% to almost 77 million during April-December period. The gems and jewellary sector stocks too will keep buzzing with industry's apex trade promotion body Gem Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) stating that gems and jewellery exports are likely to witness a growth of about 10 per cent this fiscal due to increasing demand in the US and Europe. There will be lots of important earnings announcements too, to keep the markets buzzing.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

8641.25

8607.87

8673.67

BSE Sensex

27882.46

27767.83

27988.74

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

ICICI Bank

812.98

272.00

263.80

277.10

ITC

244.92

257.40

253.35

264.20

Hindalco

195.82

190.75

187.53

194.48

SBI

180.36

266.45

261.23

269.93

BHEL

162.93

139.60

134.17

143.62

 

  • Tata Steel has executed definitive agreements with Creative Port Development and their promoters for the proposed development of 'Subarnarekha Port' in Odisha.
  • Maruti Suzuki India has launched an all-new VXi+ variant for India's most loved car, WagonR.
  • Power Grid Corporation of India has inked a Memorandum of Understanding with Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Authority & its group for cooperation in areas like smart grid, transmission technology and distribution.
  • NTPC has raised 500 million Euro through overseas bonds sale that perhaps the first longest tenor euro-denominated issuance by an Indian company.
  • ITC has reported 5.71% rise in its net profit at Rs 2646.73 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2016 as compared to Rs 2503.76 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
News Analysis