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Market Commentary 28 August 2017
Markets to make a flat-to-positive start of the F&O expiry week


It turned out to be a choppy day of trade for Indian equity benchmarks and key gauges eked out slender gains on Thursday, with Nifty holding their crucial 9,850 level and Sensex ending just shy of 31,600 mark. Markets traded with volatility through the session as traders kept a close eye on a central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which begins on Thursday; where Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi are both due to speak. Domestic bourses traded mostly in green with traders taking support with a private research enlightening that the implementation of the new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code is expected to give a big push to credit growth as international experience shows that laws to resolves bad assets have helped boost credit growth. Some support also came with report that India's agricultural sector has potential to double the income of farmers and grow exports to $100 billion by 2022. According to Crop Care Federation of India (CCFI) president Rajju Shroff, now the country ranks second-largest food producer in the world, touching $367 billion in 2014. However, gains remained capped after the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data showed that India Inc's overseas direct investment fell over 47 percent to $1.77 billion during July 2017. Indian companies had invested $3.35 billion in the same month of last year. Of the total investments in foreign ventures by Indian companies overseas, $900.66 million was in the form of issuance of guarantee, $513.81 million as loan and $353.55 million was part of equity investment. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 28.05 points or 0.09% to 31,596.06, while the CNX Nifty was up by 4.55 points or 0.05% to 9,857.05. Indian markets remained closed on Friday on account of ‘Ganesh Chaturthi.'

 

The US markets closed lower on Friday, to register another unsightly week of losses as low volumes and skittish investors left Wall Street especially vulnerable to pullbacks. Stocks shifted between gains and losses as President Donald Trump's strategist Stephen Bannon departed the White House, following the prior day's selloff fueled by a terrorist attack in Barcelona and rumors that Trump's economic adviser Gary Cohn might resign. On the economy front, Americans were almost as optimistic about the economy in August as they were at the start of the year, when President Donald Trump took office, according to a closely watched consumer-sentiment survey. The University of Michigan's sentiment index climbed to 97.6 in August from 93.4 in July, sitting just below a 98.5 reading in January that marked a 13-year high. The Michigan survey, for instance, found a notable increase in the number of people who said their own financial well-being had improved. An index that measures current conditions slipped to 111 from 113.4. A gauge that looks out six months rose to 89 from 80.5, however, also marking the highest level since January. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 76.22 points or 0.35 percent to 21,674.51, the Nasdaq lost 5.38 points or 0.09 percent to 6,216.53, while the S&P 500 edged lower by 4.46 points or 0.18 percent to 2,425.55.  

 

Crude oil futures once again moved higher on Friday, despite fears that Hurricane Harvey could disrupt refinery activity, reducing demand for crude oil. The government weather agencies said Harvey became a Category 2 storm as it crossed the Gulf of Mexico with winds of 110 mph (175 kph), 145 miles (235 km) off Port O'Connor, Texas. Traders also got some support with oilfield services firm Baker Hughes report, which said its weekly count of oil rigs operating in the United States fell by four to a total of 759 this week. Benchmark crude oil futures for October delivery ended up by $0.44 or 0.9 percent to $47.87 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for October delivery ended higher by $0.37 at $52.41 a barrel on the ICE.

 

In line with equity markets, the Indian rupee ended marginally higher against US dollar on Thursday as exporters and banks stepped up selling of the American currency. Sentiments also got some support with a private research enlightening that the implementation of the new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code is expected to give a big push to credit growth as international experience shows that laws to resolves bad assets have helped boost credit growth. Besides, some gains in the domestic equities and continuous foreign capital inflows too supported the domestic unit. On the global front, dollar edged higher against yen on Thursday, paring some of the losses it suffered after US President Donald Trump suggested a shutdown of the government was possible and threatened to terminate the North American Free Trade Agreement. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.03, 8 paise stronger from its previous close of 64.11 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4099.92 crore against gross selling of Rs 5015.04 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 989.10 crore with gross sales of Rs 799.63 crore.

 

The US markets made a mixed closing in the last session, with tech-heavy Nasdaq ending marginally in the red, however there was some upmove in early deals on hopes of tax reforms following comments from President Donald Trump's chief economic adviser Gary Cohn. The Asian markets have made a mixed start as investors weighed the damage from Tropical Storm Harvey on U.S. oil refining centers and as the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen failed to provide clues on monetary-policy tightening, focusing on the topic of financial stability a decade after the onset of the financial crisis. The Indian markets before going for a long weekend showed a choppy trade in the last session in the wake of heightened geopolitical tensions and Brexit talks beginning in Brussels, but they managed a modestly positive close. Today, the start of the F&O expiry week, despite sluggish global cues is likely to be a bit positive on some supportive development during the weekend. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has said that the firing of three ballistic missiles by North Korea this week was a provocative act, but that the US would continue to seek a peaceful resolution. On the domestic front, Nandan Nilekani returned to Infosys as non-executive chairman, promising to bring back stability to the beleaguered company following the exit of Vishal Sikka as CEO. Traders will be getting some support with industry body Assocham statement that biometric cards have facilitated disbursement of as much as Rs 83,184 crore to beneficiaries of Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) schemes without the notorious leakages of the past. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has said that the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana and the related Jan Dhan- Aadhaar and Mobile number (JAM) trinity has the potential to link all Indians into one common financial, economic, and digital space. There will be some buzz in the pharma stocks ahead of the draft pharma policy meet during the week later, as the draft's proposal is to do away with loan licensing (except in bio-pharmaceuticals) and bring in the World Health Organisation's Good Manufacturing Practices standards.

 

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9,857.05

9843.43

9876.08

BSE Sensex

31596.06

31535.34

31667.48

 

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

Infosys

211.90

912.15

903.58

919.48

SBI

141.38

280.30

278.05

282.00

ICICI Bank

127.67

297.70

296.18

299.68

Bank of Baroda

123.32

142.85

141.00

144.35

ITC

108.19

281.45

280.53

282.93

 

  • Reliance Industries' telecom arm - Reliance Jio Infocomm started pre-booking of JioPhone for Rs 500 across its retail stores, the website and Jio App from August 24.
  • Tata Power is planning to sell its non-core assets even as it continues to explore viable options to resolve issues pertaining to the financially crippled 4,000-mw Coastal Gujarat Power at Mundra.
  • Indian Oil Corporation is expected to export 2 million tonnes of finished products to Nepal in FY18.
  • Lupin, through its US subsidiary Lupin Pharmaceuticals Inc., has initiated voluntary recall of tablets Mibelas 24 Fe from the US market as they are ‘out of sequence'.
News Analysis