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NSE Intra-day chart (27 July 2017)
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Market Commentary 28 July 2017
Markets to start the new F&O series on a negative note


Markets went home empty handed on July month F&O expiry despite trading jubilantly for most part of the day. It was the final hour of trade which played spoil sports for Indian equity benchmarks and rally got fizzled out with key indices ended unchanged, as traders opted to book profits at higher levels. Markets kick started the day on optimistic note, hitting lifetime highs of 32,672.66 (Sensex) and 10,114.85 (Nifty) levels, as sentiments remained up-beat with news that retirement fund body the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation is planning to pump in Rs 22,500 crore in exchange traded funds in 2017-18 following approval from the central board of trustees to increase the equity investment from 10 per cent to 15 per cent. Traders also took some comfort with report that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) strengthened its foothold in Bihar after Nitish Kumar ended his party, JDU's mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance with Lalu Yadav's RJD and the Congress last evening and joined hands with his former partner BJP. Investors also took note of global financial services major report that the Reserve Bank of India is expected to go for a 25 basis points (bps) repo rate cut in its policy review meet on August 2 as inflation is likely to have reached a new normal of 4 percent. The report highlighted that inflation in India has fallen dramatically, and though the excessively low level it witnessed this fiscal is not sustainable, the rebound may not be too sharp either. However, markets failed to hold their early gains and started moving southward to end flat on account of late selling in bluechips like Reliance Industries, ITC, Infosys, TCS and Bharti Airtel. A string of mixed-to-weak corporate earnings also soured sentiment. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose marginally by 0.84 points to 32,383.30, while the CNX Nifty was down marginally by 0.10 points to 10,020.55.

 

The US markets closed mostly lower on Thursday, as investors remained cautious a day ahead of Donald Trump's presidential inauguration. Wall Street closely monitored the Senate confirmation hearing of Steven Mnuchin for the post of Treasury Secretary for his views on the dollar and tax issues. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen is due to give a speech covering the economic outlook and monetary policy. On the economy front, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits rose in late July but remained near the lowest level in decades, underscoring a red-hot labor market that shows little sign of cooling. Initial jobless claims in the period running from July 16 to July 22 increased by 10,000 and stood to seasonally adjusted 244,000. The average of new claims over the past month, which gives a more stable picture of layoff trends, was unchanged at 244,000. Claims often bounce up and down in July when auto makers typically close plants to retool in preparation for model switch-overs. The Nasdaq lost 40.56 points or 0.63 percent to 6,382.19, S&P 500 edged lower by 2.41 points or 0.10 percent to 2,475.42, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 85.54 points or 0.39 percent to 21,796.55.

 

Crude oil futures extended their northward march on Thursday near $50 a barrel, powered by hopes that OPEC can re-balance the global oil market. Investors continued to cheer signs that rising demand will offset excess supplies in the second half of the year amid a larger-than-expected draw in US supplies. News that Saudi Arabia plans to lower crude exports to 6.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, almost 1 million bpd below the level last year, kept the spirit high for the traders. Benchmark crude oil futures for September delivery gained $0.29 or 0.61 percent to $49.04 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for September delivery ended higher by 1.10 percent at $51.53 a barrel on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee ended at near 10-week high against US dollar on Thursday, taking its winning streak for second straight session on continued dollar selling by banks and exporters. Sentiments remained up-beat with news that retirement fund body the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation is planning to pump in Rs 22,500 crore in exchange traded funds in 2017-18 following approval from the central board of trustees to increase the equity investment from 10 percent to 15 percent. The rupee sentiment was also boosted as dollar weakened against some currencies overseas along with positive gains in the local equity markets. On the global front, yen rose against dollar after the Federal Reserve policy statement highlighted a tepid inflation outlook fuelling speculation that it is unlikely to hike rates in September. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.11, 25 paise stronger from its previous close of 64.36 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5456.65 crore against gross selling of Rs 5649.21 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2769.81 crore with gross sales of Rs 594.77 crore.

 

The US markets made a mixed closing in last session, and while the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 pulled back into negative territory, the Dow reached a new record closing high. Traders took the opportunity to cash in on some of the recent strength despite a report showing a substantial increase in durable goods orders in the month of June. The Asian markets have made mostly a soft start on some weak earnings; attention remained on corporate results ahead of a report on U.S. second-quarter growth. The Indian markets despite snapping the best F&O series in years ended flat in last session. Today, the start of the new series is likely to be in red tailing the weakness in other global markets. On the domestic front traders will be concerned with banking major ICICI reporting an eight percent fall in first quarter profit from a year earlier to Rs. 2,049 crore, though the bank said it was optimistic about containing its bad loans after the three months to June saw the smallest rise in soured assets for seven quarters. Traders will be getting some support with report from the prestigious Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), which has said that monsoon has strengthened over north central India in the last 15 years, indicating a reversal in the general perception that the region has dried up in over a decade. There will be some buzz in the gems and jewellery stocks, as the government expects export growth of six per cent a year for the industry, which is going to be the new normal. Gems and jewellery net exports declined in FY'16 to $32 billion, as compared to $36.2 billion the previous year. There will be lots of important earnings to keep the markets in action.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10020.55

9979.08

10088.43

BSE Sensex

32383.30

32248.20

32595.53

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

ICICI Bank

285.36

307.20

303.55

312.65

SBI

222.86

298.35

296.42

300.07

ITC

188.93

288.55

285.07

293.72

Bharti Airtel

139.18

416.05

409.42

424.72

Tata Motors

137.39

445.40

436.82

457.47

  • Tata Motors has launched a range of commercial vehicles in the Philippines to expand presence in the South East Asian nation.
  • Bharti Airtel is planning to roll out VoLTE service that enables phone calls using 4G technology, across India by end of the current financial year.
  • Yes Bank has reported 31.94% rise in its net profit at Rs 965.52 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2017 as compared to Rs 731.8 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.
  • Dr. Reddy's Laboratories has entered into a global licensing agreement with CHD Bioscience for the clinical development and commercialization of Dr. Reddy's phase III clinical trial candidate, DFA-02.
News Analysis