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NSE Intra-day chart (26 November 2019)
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Market Commentary 27 November 2019
Benchmarks to make a cautious start on Wednesday

 

Indian equity bourses gave up all of their gains on Tuesday to end on lower note. Markets made a fabulous start, aided with Union Minister Nitin Gadkari's statement that the government is in the process of launching 'Digital data based credit ratings' of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises, to help entrepreneurs to get bank loans on the basis of these credit ratings. Firm trade persisted for the most part of the session, amid a report stating that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is finally attempting to overhaul India's most controversial labour laws to attract investment and make it easier to do business in a country where changing archaic rules is a challenge for any government. In the last hour of the trading day, key indices turned negative, on the back of weak cues from the global markets. Domestic sentiments got hampered after credit rating agency India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) revised its GDP growth forecast for the current financial year (FY20) to 5.6 per cent. This is the fourth revision and has come in after the agency had revised its FY20 GDP growth forecast only a month ago to 6.1 per cent. Some concerns also came with the Employees State Insurance Corporation's (ESIC) latest payroll data showing that around 12.23 lakh jobs were created in September 2019, lower than 13.38 lakh in the previous month. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 67.93 points or 0.17% to 40,821.30, while the CNX Nifty was down by 36.05 points or 0.30% to 12,037.70.

 

The US markets end at all-time highs on Tuesday as investors focused on US-China trade talks.  A statement from China's Commerce Ministry revealed Chinese Vice Premier Liu He held a phone call with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. The statement said the two sides discussed how to resolve each other's core concerns, reached consensus on how to resolve related issues, and agreed to maintain communication on the remaining issues in the first phase of agreement negotiations. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said that Washington was in the final throes in its efforts to reach a trade deal with China, but also underscored that Americans stand with pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong. Besides, some support also came with an upbeat assessment of the economy from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell outlined an optimistic view of the US economy but signaled that low inflation would likely keep interest rates low. The Fed chief said that the central bank's three rate cuts this year have helped to spur home purchases, contributing to the economy's longest expansion on record. On the economic data front, reflecting a softening in consumers' assessment of current conditions, the Conference Board released a report showing US consumer confidence unexpectedly declined for a fourth consecutive month in November. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 125.5 in November from an upwardly revised 126.1 in October. Street had expected the consumer confidence index to inch up to 126.9 from the 125.9 originally reported for the previous month. The unexpected drop by the headline index came as the present situation index slumped to 166.9 in November from 173.5 in October.

 

Extending yesterday's gains, crude oil futures ended higher with gains of over half a percent on Tuesday on hopes that trade talks between China and the US will ultimately result in a deal that sustains global economic growth and energy demand, especially if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) restrains production. China's Commerce Ministry said top US and Chinese trade negotiators held a phone call on Tuesday. The two sides are trying to reach agreement on a so-called Phase 1 deal in a trade war that has dragged on for 16 months, but progress has been stymied lately by China's frustration with passage in the US of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. Benchmark crude oil futures for January gained 40 cents or 0.6 percent to settle at $58.41 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. January Brent rose 62 cents or 0.9 percent to settle at $64.27 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended stronger against dollar on Tuesday, due to increased selling of the American currency by banks and exporters. Traders remained optimistic with a report stating that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is finally attempting to overhaul India's most controversial labour laws to attract investment and make it easier to do business in a country where changing archaic rules is a challenge for any government. Traders even overlooked credit rating agency India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) revised its GDP growth forecast for the current financial year (FY20) to 5.6 per cent. This is the fourth revision and has come in after the agency had revised its FY20 GDP growth forecast only a month ago to 6.1 per cent. On the global front, dollar was stable against yen on Tuesday amid positive signs the China and the U.S. would agree on an interim trade deal. Finally, the rupee ended at 71.50, 24 paise stronger from its previous close of 71.74 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6188.37 crore against gross selling of Rs 4201.74 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 407.50 crore with gross sales of Rs 772.21 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6.84 crore against gross selling of Rs 6.88 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Tuesday as upbeat comments by President Donald Trump on trade talks eclipsed some softer-than-anticipated economic data. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Wednesday as more upbeat signals from US-China trade talks fanned hopes of an imminent end to tariff hostilities, which helped offset concerns about a slowing US economy. Indian markets gave up early gains and ended lower on Tuesday as investors booked profits at higher levels amid mixed cues from global markets. Today, the markets are likely to make a cautious start amid economic growth concerns and ahead of expiry of the Futures and Options contracts, slated for Thursday. Fitch group firm India Ratings and Research said Indian economy may have slowed for the sixth consecutive quarter in July-September to 4.7 per cent and it lowered GDP growth forecast for current fiscal for the fourth time. However, some support may come with Union minister Piyush Goyal's statement that India's service sector can help achieve the Central government's target of $5 trillion GDP. He said the service sector has the potential to be the largest job creators in the country and over the next five years it has the potential to contribute $3 trillion out of the $5 trillion GDP target set by the government. Traders may take note of a private report that the Reserve Bank of India is expected to cut interest rates in its December bi-monthly monetary policy and again before July. There will be some reaction in infra stocks with rating agency Crisil's report that states need to scale up investments to Rs 110 lakh crore over the next decade to achieve India's massive infrastructure targets. Metal stocks will be in focus with a private report indicating that with the leases of 232 merchant iron ore mines expiring in March next year, the country may face a short-term disruption in supply of the main ingredient used in making steel. There will be some buzz in the telecom stocks amid reports that the Committee of Secretaries (CoS) formed to suggest relief measure for struggling telecos has been disbanded.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

12,037.70

11,985.22

12,111.32

BSE Sensex

40,821.30

40,647.57

41,057.65

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Yes Bank

3,997.92

63.15

61.30

66.25

ICICI Bank

2,868.58

510.70

501.95

518.50

ZEEL

651.51

319.70

307.07

337.67

SBI

364.64

335.50

332.07

339.47

Tata Steel

282.76

424.15

417.50

430.05

 

  • SBI has entered into a loan co-origination partnership with Ugro Capital to facilitate broader credit outreach. 
  • Bajaj auto has joined hand with Yulu to transform urban commute in India.  
  • Maruti Suzuki India's brand Alto is celebrating 15 years of leadership with over 38 lakh happy customers.  
  • Infosys has launched its Cyber Next platform-based offerings, powered by Microsoft Azure Sentinel.
News Analysis