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Market Commentary 27 March 2017
F&O expiry week likely to get a soft start on sluggish global cues


Indian equity benchmarks carried forward their northbound journey for yet another session on Friday, as lenders such as SBI surged after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley promised a solution to the growing NPA problem within next few days. Jaitley also said the government is keen to roll out the GST on July 1 and other aspects like bringing petroleum and land under its ambit will be considered after the first year of implementation of the new system of indirect tax collection. Further, mutual fund managers seem to be bullish on bank shares as they raised their allocation in the sector to an all-time high of over Rs 1.2 lakh crore at the end of February, primarily on account of cheaper valuations. Meanwhile, some support also came with the report that EPFO trustees will meet on March 30 to discuss whether to increase its investments in ETFs to 15% of investible deposits in 2017-18, from the current 10%. Investors also got some comfort with External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj's statement that there was no reason to worry about the curbs on H1B visas or the job security of Indian IT professionals working in the US for the time being, as the Indian government was in talks with the US regarding this. Furthermore, strengthening of rupee against the dollar also supported the sentiments. However, gains remained capped on the report that the current account deficit (CAD) widened to $ 7.9 billion or 1.4% of GDP in the October-December quarter on account of higher trade deficit. Also, the Reserve Bank reported that the country added $ 14.2 billion in foreign exchange reserves on the balance of payment basis during the first nine months of the outgoing financial year, which is marginally down from $ 14.6 billion accretion in the year-ago period. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 89.24 points or 0.30% to 29421.40, while the CNX Nifty was up by 21.70 points or 0.24% to 9,108.00.

 

Extending previous session's southward journey, the US markets ended the volatile day of trade mostly in red on Friday. The volatility on Wall Street came as the House prepared to vote on a Republican bill to repeal and replace Obamacare. Late in the trading day, House Republican leaders decided to withdraw the bill amid indications of a lack of support. The move came despite vigorous efforts by President Donald Trump and House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., to build support for the legislation. A number of more conservative lawmakers opposed the bill amid criticism that it did not go far enough to repeal the provisions of Obamacare. Moderate Republicans were also concerned about predictions the plan would cause millions of people to lose their insurance. Even if the Republican healthcare bill had been approved by the House, the legislation was expected to face an even tougher uphill battle in the Senate. The inability to advance the bill could cast doubt on Trump's ability to deliver on promises of increased infrastructure spending, tax cuts and deregulation. On the economic front, the Commerce Department released a report showing a bigger than expected increase in durable goods orders in the month of February. The report said durable goods orders jumped by 1.7 percent in February after surging up by a revised 2.3 percent in January. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 59.86 points or 0.29 percent to 20,596.72 and S&P 500 was down by 1.98 points or 0.08 percent to 2,343.98, while Nasdaq was up 11.04 points or 0.19 percent to 5,828.74.

 

Crude oil futures despite moving higher on Friday, ended the week in red amid further signs of robust U.S. production. Fears of a glut in U.S. crude inventories came against bullish comments from a Saudi energy ministry official that crude exports to the United States in March would fall by around 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) from February and hold at those levels for the next few months. Meanwhile, oilfield services firm Baker Hughes reported its weekly U.S. rig count rose by 21 to 652, it was the tenth straight weekly increase. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery gained $0.27 or 0.6% to $47.97 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for May delivery ended higher by $0.25 at $50.81 on the ICE.

 

Snapping its two-day losing streak, Indian rupee bounced back against dollar on Friday on fresh selling of the American currency by exporters. Positive gains in the equity market along with dollar struggled against some other currencies overseas too supported the rupee. Local currency shrugged off the report that the current account deficit (CAD) widened to $ 7.9 billion or 1.4% of GDP in the October-December quarter on account of higher trade deficit. On the global front, dollar turned lower against other major currencies on Friday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a highly-anticipated vote on U.S. President Donald Trump's healthcare bill and as strong euro zone data sent the single currency broadly higher. Finally, the rupee ended at 65.41, 12 paise stronger from its previous close of 65.53 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5976.95 crore against gross selling of Rs 4880.08 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 408.55 crore with gross sales of Rs 946.11 crore.

 

The US markets depicted another lackluster trade in last session after the US president Trump suffered a major blow when House Republicans withdrew the American Health Care Act after they failed to secure enough votes to pass the bill. The Asian markets have made mostly a lower start and some of the indices are trading lower by over half a percent in early deals, led by the Japanese market which is down by over one and half a percent after the yen strengthened against the dollar amid increased skepticism of U.S. President Donald Trump's ability to implement his economic agenda after last week's failed U.S. health-care deal. The Indian markets gave up some of their gains in final hours of last session but managed to end in green. Today, the start of the F&O expiry week is likely to be flat-to-cautious on sluggish global cues and traders will be concerned over U.S. President Donald Trump's economic growth agenda. Traders will however be getting some support with the government's plan to table four legislations for the implementation of the goods and services tax in the Lok Sabha today. The Union Cabinet has already cleared the four supplementary GST legislations - CGST, IGST, UTGST and Compensation Law - for introduction and passage in the ongoing session of Parliament. Also, the country is expecting "bumper" crop of pulses this year but the supply will fall short of the demand. While, the logistics stocks will continue to remain in focus there will be scrip specific movement with market regulator Sebi barring Reliance Industries and 12 other entities from dealing in the futures & options segment for a year, directly or indirectly.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9108.00

9087.08

9131.23

BSE Sensex

29421.40

29334.43

29524.11

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

IDEA

283.37

90.90

90.00

92.20

Bank of Baroda

232.66

169.05

163.52

173.07

SBI

201.33

276.50

270.45

280.75

ICICI Bank

174.79

274.75

270.65

277.85

Hindalco

117.48

194.90

192.43

197.18

 

  • Bharti Airtel has entered into a definitive agreement with Tikona Digital Networks to acquire Tikona's 4G Business including the Broadband Wireless Access spectrum and 350 sites, in five telecom circles.
  • Yes Bank has launched a $650 million Qualified Insitutional Placement issue with an option to upsize to $750 million.
  • Tata Motors has decided to raise Rs 500 crore through issuance of Non-Convertible Debentures on private placement basis.
  • HDFC Bank has reached an important milestone of 200 branches in Telangana state by inaugurating a new branch at Khairatabad in Telangana state.  
News Analysis