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NSE Intra-day chart (26 February 2019)
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Market Commentary 27 February 2019
Markets to get slightly positive start amid optimistic cues from Asian peers

 

Indian equities suffered weakness on Tuesday, with both the larger peers, Sensex and Nifty closing the day below their psychological levels of 36,000 and 10,850, respectively. The indices made a weak start of the session impacted by domestic ratings agency Icra's report that India Inc witnessed a dip in both revenue growth as well as margins in the December quarter compared to the preceding three months. The analysis is based on the aggregate numbers reported by 648 listed companies, which shows a revenue growth of 17.3% in Q3 down from 19.4% in the preceding three months. Domestic sentiments also got hit with Bibek Debroy, the head of Prime Minister's economic advisory panel, stating that India lacks good data on economy and jobs as it is majorly an informal economy. Some concerns also came with reports that the flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) into India is dropping and may suffer its first full-year decline since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014. Inbound FDI dropped 7% to $33.5 billion in the nine months between April and December 2018, compared with $36 billion in the year-earlier period. The markets remained sluggish throughout the day but managed to settle off day's low points, taking support from the State Bank of India (SBI) Research report that Indian economy is likely to grow in the range of 6.6-6.7 percent during the third quarter of the current fiscal year 2018-19 (FY19). It added that for the full financial year, the growth will be 7.2 percent. The market participants got some relief with reports that the Ministry of Housing & Urban Affairs gave approval for the construction of another 5,60,695 more affordable houses for the benefit of urban poor under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (Urban). Adding some support, the Commerce and Industry Minister Suresh Prabhu said that India's goods and services exports, which are recording healthy growth so far, would surpass $500 billion in fiscal 2018-19, despite challenges being faced on the global trade front. Prabhu also said that the ministry is working on identifying new products and new markets to further push the shipments. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 239.67 points or 0.66% to 35,973.71, while the CNX Nifty was down by 44.80 points or 0.41% to 10835.30.

 

The US markets ended slightly lower on Tuesday after weaving in and out of positive territory all session as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered his semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, telling lawmakers the US economy remains healthy but warning about potential headwinds. Powell noted in prepared remarks before the Senate Banking Committee that the Fed has seen some crosscurrents and conflicting signals regarding current conditions and the economic outlook over the past few months. The Fed Chief specifically pointed to volatility in the financial markets toward the end of 2018, calling financial conditions less supportive of growth than they were earlier last year. Powell also cited slowing economic growth in foreign countries, particularly China and Europe, as well was uncertainty about Brexit and ongoing trade talks between the US and China. On the economic front, a government shutdown-delayed report released by the Commerce Department showed a much steeper than expected drop in US housing starts in the month of December. The report said housing starts plunged by 11.2% to an annual rate of 1.078 million in December from the revised November estimate of 1.214 million. Street had expected housing starts to dip by 0.5% to a rate of 1.250 million from the 1.256 million originally reported for the previous month. With the much bigger than expected decrease, housing starts plummeted to their lowest annual rate since hitting 1.064 million in September of 2016. Single-family housing starts tumbled by 6.7 percent to a rate of 758,000, while multi-family housing starts nosedived by 20.4% to a rate of 320,000. Meanwhile, consumer confidence in the US rebounded in February following three consecutive monthly decreases, according to a report released by the Conference Board. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index jumped to 131.4 in February after falling to 121.7 in January. Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 33.97 points or 0.13 percent to 26057.98, Nasdaq lost 5.16 points or 0.07 percent to 7549.30 and S&P 500 was down by 2.21 points or 0.08 percent to 2793.90.

 

Crude oil futures ended marginally higher on Tuesday as a downdraft - prompted by President Donald Trump's call for Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to help check rising crude prices - faded. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude supplies fell by 4.2 million barrels for the week ended February 22. The API also reportedly showed that gasoline stockpiles declined by 3.8 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose by 400,000 barrels. Inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released Wednesday. The EIA data are expected to show crude supplies climbed by 3.5 million barrels last week. Benchmark crude oil futures for April added 2 cents or less than 0.05 percent to settle at $55.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. April Brent crude gained 45 cents or 0.7 percent to settle at $65.21 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee recovered from day's low points, but failed to erase all losses and ended marginally lower against dollar on Tuesday, due to fresh dollar demand from banks and importers. Traders remained concerned with reports that the flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) into India is dropping and may suffer its first full-year decline since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014. Inbound FDI dropped 7% to $33.5 billion in the nine months between April and December 2018, compared with $36 billion in the year-earlier period. The weak trade in the local equity market also adversely impacted local forex trade. However, local unit cut most of the early losses, taking support from the SBI Research report that Indian economy is likely to grow in the range of 6.6-6.7 percent during the third quarter of FY19. It added that for the full financial year, the growth will be 7.2 percent. On the global front, dollar held near a one-week low against its rivals on Tuesday as currency markets waited for testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that might give a further boost to risk appetite. Finally, the rupee ended at 71.07, 10 paise weaker from its previous close of 70.97 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7141.68 crore against gross selling of Rs 5339.99 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1019.87 crore with gross sales of Rs 1333.85 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4.83 crore against gross selling of Rs 4.94 crore.

 

The US markets ended in red on Tuesday as investors digested the release of weaker-than-expected Home Depot earnings, mixed economic data and testimony from the top-ranked Federal Reserve official. Asian markets were higher trading higher on Wednesday as investors watch the second summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Vietnam. Indian markets ended lower on Tuesday amid rising geo-political concerns. Weak cues from global equities and selling pressure on financials and realty stocks too weighed on markets. Today, the start of the session is likely to be marginally in green mirroring positive cues from Asian peers after the US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell reinforced the US central bank's recent shift towards a more patient approach on policy in the face of a slowing economy. However, there may be some cautiousness amid geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. Traders may also be concerned with the government data showing that fiscal deficit touched 121.5 percent of the full-year revised target of Rs 6.34 lakh crore at the end of January on account of lower revenue collections. The fiscal deficit, or the gap between the government's expenditure and revenue, stood at Rs 7.70 lakh crore during April-January of the current financial year ending March. At the end of January 2018, the deficit was 113.7 percent of the Revised Estimate (RE). Meanwhile, seeking to curb excessive salary payout practices, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has proposed strict compensation norms for senior officials of private as well as foreign banks, including minimum 50 percent variable component and money clawback provisions. Besides, the government extended the deadline to impose retaliatory customs duties on 29 US products, including almond, walnut and pulses, till April 1. There will be some buzz in the select banking sector stocks with the RBI stating that Allahabad Bank, Corporation Bank and Dhanlaxmi Bank have been taken out of the Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) framework. Bank of India (BoI), Bank of Maharashtra (BoM) and Oriental Bank of Commerce (OBC) were taken out of PCA framework on January 31 after infusion of capital in these banks.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10,835.30

10,746.82

10,906.27

BSE Sensex

35,973.71

35,734.41

36,192.77

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Yes Bank

842.99

229.50

221.58

235.93

Tata Motors

318.59

182.65

175.62

186.57

IOC

182.11

142.25

138.18

144.78

ICICI Bank

180.96

348.20

345.63

351.73

Zee Entertainment Enterprises

160.46

469.20

443.47

491.47

 

  • Tata Motor is planning to launch a premium hatchback model named Altroz in the middle of 2019. 
  • Tech Mahindra has launched its network automation and managed services framework netOps.ai to boost 5G adoption for communication service providers. 
  • Reliance Industries' telecom arm - Jio has entered into partnership with Ciena to make its national transport network future-proof with transport SDN or software-defined network capabilities. 
  • Eicher Motors has resumed normal manufacturing operations at Royal Enfield's Oragadam, Chennai facility.
News Analysis