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Market Commentary 26 April 2017
Markets to make a positive start on penultimate session of F&O expiry


Euphoric Indian equity indices showcased an impressive performance on Tuesday by conquering the crucial 9,300 (Nifty) and 29,900 (Sensex) levels as they got underpinned by a series of encouraging leads. Monday's optimism got spilled over into the Tuesday's session helping the local indices in extending the winning momentum for second successive session as encouraging global developments buttressed domestic sentiments. Investors continued to build hefty positions across the board as sentiments got a boost after a centrist victory in the first round of the French presidential election. Polls show Emmanuel Macron defeating anti-euro nationalist Marine Le Pen by as much as 30% points in the second round of the French presidential election in two weeks. Sentiments were also bolstered by a string of optimistic quarterly results including from Reliance Industries, which were announced yesterday post market hours. For the March quarter, RIL's consolidated net profit rose 12.3% to Rs 8,046 crore, against Rs 7,167 crore for the same period a year ago. Its turnover in the March quarter rose 45.2% year-on-year to Rs 92,889 crore, largely meeting street expectations for net profit. Further, investors' sentiments remained buoyant with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that India will continue to grow at 7-8 per cent rate, an 'absolute normal' for the nation under the current global environment. Jaitley also said as far as the economy is concerned, all the decisions taken by the Modi-Government are consistently in one direction. Moreover, paving the way for July 1 roll out of the GST, the Bihar assembly in a special session unanimously passed the Goods and Services Tax Bill, 2017. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said the consensus on Goods and Services Tax (GST) reflects the spirit of 'one nation, one aspiration, one determination'. Meanwhile, banking stocks gained traction on the report that mutual fund managers continued to be bullish on bank shares, with their allocation to the sector reaching an all-time high of over Rs. 1.26 lakh crore at the end of March 2017. Also, Indian Bank has reported solid performance in January-March quarter as profit soared 3.4 times to Rs 319.7 crore compared with Rs 93.62 crore in year-ago quarter despite higher provisions. Net interest income, operating profit and tax credit boosted profitability. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 287.40 points or 0.97% to 29943.24, while the CNX Nifty was up by 88.65 points or 0.96% to 9,306.60. 

 

The US markets closed higher on Tuesday, with the Dow jumping by triple-digits and the Nasdaq closing above 6,000 for the first time ever, as investors welcomed upbeat earnings and the possibility of corporate tax cuts. The threat of a US government shutdown this weekend appeared to recede on Tuesday after President Donald Trump backed away from a demand that Congress include funding for his planned border wall with Mexico in a spending bill. Even if the fight over wall funding is over, Republicans and Democrats still have difficult issues to resolve as they face a Friday night deadline when existing money expires for many federal agencies. On the economy front, US house prices continued to show no signs of slowing, hitting their highest in nearly three years as demand remains hot, especially in the Pacific Northwest and Dallas. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index rose 5.9% in the three-month period ending in February compared to the same period a year ago, an acceleration from its 5.7% yearly increase in January. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 232.23 points or 1.12 percent to 20,996.12, Nasdaq gained 41.67 points or 0.70 percent to 6,025.49, while S&P 500 ended higher by 14.46 points or 0.61 percent to 2,388.61.

 

Crude oil futures ended modestly higher on Tuesday, extending their gains for the second day, though the mood remained cautious ahead of crucial US inventories data over the next two days. Prices have been pressured as rising U.S. crude production has offset much of the output cuts by OPEC and other countries trying to reduce a global glut in crude. There was some concern with a news agency quoting Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvokovich as saying Russia may increase oil production. Though, prices rose as surging U.S. stocks signaled increased demand for energy products. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery ended higher by $0.33 or 0.7 percent to $49.56 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for June delivery ended up by $ 0.50 at $52.10 on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee ended at three-week high against US dollar on Tuesday, taking its winning streak for second straight session, on continued dollar selling by banks and exporters. Sentiments remained positive with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that India will continue to grow at 7-8 per cent rate, an 'absolute normal' for the nation under the current global environment. Jaitley also said as far as the economy is concerned, all the decisions taken by the Modi-Government are consistently in one direction. Besides, persistent rise in the equity market along with dollar weakness overseas too kept the domestic unit in good spirits. On the global front, euro surged on Monday to its strongest level against the greenback in five-and-a-half months after Centrist and pro-EU candidate Emmanuel Macron took first place in the first round of the French presidential election. Finally, the rupee ended at 64.27, 17 paise stronger from its previous close of 64.44 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4049.12 crore against gross selling of Rs 4276.01 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2075.60 crore with gross sales of Rs 292.52 crore.

 

The US markets extended their upmove and ended higher in last session, the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed to a new record closing high on getting some upbeat earnings numbers and also as the new home sales saw a substantial increase in the month of March. The Asian markets continuing their rally mood have got a positive start, as corporate results and hopes of US tax reform boosted optimism for global growth. Japanese market was leading the pack as the yen weakened further. The Indian markets surged in last session adding another around a percent for the day, with Nifty closing at record highs. Today, the start of the penultimate session of the F&O series expiry is likely to be in green. Traders will be getting some encouragement with report that the outperformance of the domestic stock market has pushed India's contribution to the global market capitalisation to a six-year high. Traders will also be reacting to NITI Aayog member Bibek Debroy's statement who made a strong case for removal of exemptions on personal income tax and bringing agriculture under the tax net with a view to increasing the resources of state. There will be some buzz in the PSU banking stocks, as the RBI Governor Urjit Patel has said the Indian banking system could be better off if some public sector banks are consolidated to have fewer but healthier entities, as it would help in dealing with the problem of stressed assets. There will be some reaction in services sector stocks too, as the government has said that there will be two slabs for services under GST, with segments such as transport facing a lower levy compared to the 18% tax on several services. There will be some buzz from the primary market too, as the bidding process of the Rs 728 crore initial public offering of S Chand Company will start today.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9306.60

9268.23

9327.08

BSE Sensex

29943.24

29828.78

30009.76

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

Axis Bank

137.78

516.40

500.95

526.00

ITC

127.21

281.30

276.13

284.23

ICICI Bank

124.41

272.50

270.57

273.87

SBI

115.32

286.05

284.43

288.23

Reliance Industries

84.04

1432.80

1416.68

1458.33

 
  • Infosys has strengthened its engineering footprint in Eastern Europe by opening its first office and delivery center in Karlovac, Croatia.
  • IndusInd Bank has inaugurated its third branch in Jamshedpur, the first planned industrial city of India. The branch is located at Mango, Jamshedpur.
  • SBI will support CREDAI as their national banking partner and provide loans at concessional interest rate towards construction finance.
  • Reliance Industries has reported a rise of 12.26% in its consolidated net profit at Rs 8,046 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2017 as compared to Rs 7,167 crore for the corresponding quarter in the FY16.
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