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NSE Intra-day chart (22 June 2018)
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Market Commentary 25 June 2018
Markets to make negative start amid weak global cues

 

 

Friday turned out to be a fabulous day of trade for Indian equity benchmarks where frontline gauges erased all of their early losses to end the session with a gain of three fourth of a percent, as traders opted to buy beaten down but fundamentally strong stocks in last leg of trade. Markets started the session on pessimistic note as sentiments remained downbeat with union minister Suresh Prabhu's statement that India was seeing real challenge at World Trade Organsation and in the global trading system itself. He stated that because, first time, countries are putting roadblocks and it is going to be real, real issue. However, markets reversed all of their early losses in second half of the day as sentiments turned optimistic with report stating that exports from special economic zones (SEZs) grew by 38% in May to Rs 29,236 crore. The major sectors contributing to the growth include biotech, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, computers, electronics, non-conventional energy, plastic, rubber, trading and services. Some support also came with private report stating that India fared well on its early warning indicators (EWI) index showing no signs of domestic or financial risks during the last three years. On the other hand, economies of China, Hong Kong, Japan, Canada and Australia threw up several warning signals between 2015 and 2017. But it was buying in last leg of trade, which mainly helped bourses to end near intraday highs with traders got encouragement with Prime Minister Narendra Modi calling for targeting double-digit GDP growth for breaking into the $5 trillion economy club and said India's share in world trade has to more than double to 3.4%. Sentiments got buoyed with World Bank's data report that India continued to be the world's top recipient of remittance from its diaspora, gathering $69 billion in 2017, nearly 1.5 times India's defence budget for 2018-19, an increase of 9.5% from the previous year. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 257.21 points or 0.73% to 35,689.60, while the CNX Nifty was up by 80.75 points or 0.75% to 10,821.85.

 

The US markets ended mostly higher on Friday as energy companies climbed after OPEC said it will produce more oil, but not as much as investors feared. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producers struck a deal that would result in an effective rise in production of around 600,000 barrels a day, a figure that comes as a relief to bullish traders who feared a more aggressive increase. However gains remain capped with Markit releasing June data on both the manufacturing and services sectors. The read on manufacturing fell to 54.6 from 56.4, while the services gauge dipped to 56.5 from 56.8. Further, investors worried that trade tensions between the U.S. and major trading partners such as China and the European Union could develop into a big drag on the global economy. These concerns come as the U.S. economy, the world's largest, is increasingly viewed as in the late stages of its expansion. The EU has said it would begin implementing tariffs on $3.2 billion in U.S. imports. Besides, investors remain concerned after President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 20 percent tariff on all cars imported to the U.S. from the European Union. He would impose the new tariffs unless the EU removes tariffs and trade barriers placed on the U.S.  He stated that 'Based on the Tariffs and Trade Barriers long placed on the U.S. and it great companies and workers by the European Union, if these Tariffs and Barriers are not soon broken down and removed, we will be placing a 20% Tariff on all of their cars coming into the U.S. Build them here'. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 119.19 points or 0.49 percent to 24580.89, the S&P 500 added 5.12 points or 0.19 percent to 2754.88., while the Nasdaq dropped by 20.14 points or 0.26 percent to 7692.82.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Friday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to rein in member production cuts, essentially lifting output to help make up for an expected shortfall in global supplies. The expected output increase, however, appears likely to be smaller than market participants had expected. Oil ministers gathered for the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna agreed to a nominal increase in production of 1 million barrels a day, but left the figure out of the final statement. Benchmark crude oil futures for August delivery surged $3.04 or 4.6 percent to settle at $68.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. August Brent crude rose $2.50 or 3.4 percent at $75.55 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Extending gain for the third straight session, Indian rupee ended stronger against dollar on Friday, due to selling of greenback by banks and importers. Market participants got comfort with report stating that exports from special economic zones (SEZs) grew by 38% in May to Rs 29,236 crore. The major sectors contributing to the growth include biotech, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, computers, electronics, non-conventional energy, plastic, rubber, trading and services. Traders also took encouragement with Prime Minister Narendra Modi calling for targeting double-digit GDP growth for breaking into the $5 trillion economy club and said India's share in world trade has to more than double to 3.4%. Besides, splendid gains of local equities along with dollar's slide against some currencies overseas, too supported the rupee. On the global front, euro climbed half a percent on Friday after stronger than expected French business activity in June raised hopes that concerns about a widening slowdown in the euro zone in the second quarter may be slightly overdone. Finally, the rupee ended at 67.82, 17 paise stronger from its previous close of 67.99 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net buyer in equity and net seller in debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6437.52 crore against gross selling of Rs 5130.79 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 562.06 crore with gross sales of Rs 2039.94 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.32 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.55 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly higher on Friday, as investors tried to shake off jitters concerning trade tensions between the US and China. Asian markets were trading mostly in red on Monday, as investors shrugged off the positive lead from Wall Street as well as the surge in crude oil prices on Friday amid worries about US-China trade tensions. Indian equity markets ended higher on Friday, supported by positive sentiment in global markets. Today, the start of the F&O expiry week is likely to remain cautious, as traders will be concerned about a report that foreign investors have pulled out over Rs 14,500 crore from the Indian capital markets this month so far, primarily due to global trade war and hawkish commentary by the US Federal Reserve. As per the data available with the depositories, the latest outflow has taken the total net withdrawal by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from the capital markets (equity and debt) to more than Rs 46,600 crore in this year so far. Also, there will be negative reaction on a private report stating that a year into implementation, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) has not delivered on the promised formalisation of the economy as yet. It also said that the glitches in the one-nation-one-tax regime increased the demand for cash. Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) data has revealed that less than 25% of the country received normal or excess rains till now, with the weatherman saying that monsoon activity has revived over the weekend and is making a steady advance. There will be buzz in the power sector related stocks with report that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rightly put its foot down on giving lenders forbearance for stressed power-generating assets.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

10,821.85

10,742.53

10,869.08

BSE Sensex

35,689.60

35,442.31

35,839.08

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

SBI

207.84

273.05

267.97

275.92

ICICI Bank

174.91

300.65

296.63

303.68

ITC 

168.21

265.15

261.17

267.97

Reliance Industries

161.70

1,012.50

1,004.23

1,024.98

Vedanta 

150.62

228.55

226.78

230.08

 

  • TCS has launched a mobile application in partnership with the Indigenous Running Foundation. 
  • Coal India has commenced the Tranche IV of auction of coal linkages for non-regulated sector, in furtherance to policy guidelines issued by MOC. 
  • Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone's Promoter entities SB Adani Family Trust and Gautam S Adani Family Trust have sold 2.4% stake or 4.99 crore shares of the company though block deal. 
  • M&M has completed sale of 26,36,401 Equity Shares of Rs 10 each held by the company in Mahindra Sanyo Special Steel.
News Analysis