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NSE Intra-day chart (20 March 2019)
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Market Commentary 22 March 2019
Benchmarks to make a cautious start on Friday

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended flat on Wednesday after seven days rally. The markets made a cautious start but managed to keep their heads above water for the most part of the session, amid reports that the government has given a major relief to startups by enhancing definition of startups. It has decided to relax angel tax norms for startups, including increasing the investment limit to Rs 25 crore for availing income tax concessions by startups. Traders were positive, as the Vice President of India, M. Venkaiah Naidu expressed the hope that in all our countries, we would be able to translate economic growth into inclusive, sustainable development and referred to Indian government's resolve to transform governance and ultimately the lives of the people. Adding relief on the street, India's Ambassador to the US Harsh Vardhan Shringla said that India's growth in last five years has been transformational and the country is all set to emerge as a $5 trillion economy in the next five years. But, key equity indices remain volatile during session and finally ended flat, impacted by a report that there is a 70% chance of El Nino climate cycle forming towards the second half of this year, a forecast that does not augur well for the monsoon season in India. Weak cues from global markets also weighed on the domestic sentiments. Investors got cautious as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Shaktikanta Das expressed need to stick to the fiscal roadmap by adopting a commonly agreed expenditure code-based spending plan to address the socioeconomic challenges. He also advocated giving permanent status to the finance commission. Further, the market participants took a note of the report showing that Indian mutual funds and insurance firms, which scooped up shares while foreign institutional investors (FIIs) stayed away, turned net sellers of Rs 10,247.9 crore in March, even as FIIs returned to Indian markets. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 23.28 points or 0.06% to 38,386.75, while the CNX Nifty was down by 11.35 points or 0.10% to 11,521.05.

 

The US markets ended higher on Thursday as a batch of largely upbeat US data offset economic concerns raised by the Federal Reserve no longer forecasting interest rate hikes this year. The Labor Department released a report showing a bigger than expected drop in initial jobless claims in the week ended March 16th. The report said initial jobless claims dropped to 221,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level of 230,000. Meanwhile, the Labor Department said the less volatile four-week moving average crept up to 225,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average of 224,000. Meanwhile, after reporting an unexpected contraction in regional manufacturing activity in the previous month, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released a report on Thursday showing its index of manufacturing activity rebounded by much more than anticipated in March. The Philly Fed said its index for current manufacturing activity in the region jumped to a positive 13.7 in March from a negative 4.1 in February, with a positive reading indicating growth. Additionally, the Conference Board also released a report showing a slightly bigger than expected increase by its reading on leading US economic indicators. The Conference Board said its leading economic index edged up by 0.2 percent after revised data showed no change in January. Besides, support also came in on the back of a rally in the technology sector. Apple (AAPL) posted a standout gain, jumping by 3.7 percent after Needham upgraded its rating on the company's stock to Strong Buy from Buy, citing value upside in Apple's ecosystem. Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 216.84 points or 0.84 percent to 25962.51, S&P 500 gained 30.65 points or 1.09 percent to 2854.88 and Nasdaq was up 109.99 points or 1.42 percent to 7838.96.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Thursday, with the US benchmark settling below the key $60 mark, as global crude prices suffered their first loss in four sessions. Prices for both benchmarks had climbed by more than 1% on Wednesday after US government data showed an unexpectedly large fall in domestic crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration said US crude inventories fell by an unexpected 9.6 million barrels last week, while supplies of gasoline dropped 4.6 million barrels and distillates declined by 4.1 million barrels. The US Energy Information Administration reported that domestic supplies of natural gas fell by 47 billion cubic feet for the week ended March 15. Benchmark crude oil futures for May dropped 25 cents or 0.4 percent to settle at $59.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. May Brent crude lost 64 cents or 0.9 percent to settle at $67.86 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Resuming its winning streak, Indian rupee ended higher on Wednesday against the greenback after a day of halt on the back of massive liquidity push in form of strong foreign fund inflows in March. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) put in Rs 2,132.36 crore on a net basis on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) governor Shakthikanta Das has stated the recent decision to inject rupee liquidity through long-term foreign exchange swap has received quite well response from market. In an unprecedented move, the Central Bank on March 13 announced a US dollar/rupee buy/sell swap auction worth $5 billion on March 26 to inject rupee liquidity for longer duration. This is first time that such a tool has been deployed by the RBI, which has been normally using OMOs to inject liquidity into the system. But the targeted liquidity will reach the system only next fiscal year when the government starts spending. However, gains remain capped as investors braced for caution ahead of the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later in the day. Finally, the rupee ended at 68.83, 13 paise stronger from its previous close of 68.96 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6586.33 crore against gross selling of Rs 4396.76 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 3635.54 crore with gross sales of Rs 983.80 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.53 crore against gross selling of Rs 0.30 crore.

 

The US markets ended sharply higher on Thursday as a batch of largely upbeat US data offset economic concerns raised by the Federal Reserve no longer forecasting interest rate hikes this year. Asian markets are trading mixed on Friday as investors grappled with the consequences of a recent change in interest rate outlook at the US Federal Reserve. Indian equity markets ended Wednesday's lackluster trade almost flat, as weak global cues prompted traders to book some profits following a seven-session winning streak. Today, the markets are likely to make a cautious start amid mixed cues from Asian peers. Investors will be cautious following the US Federal Reserve's dim outlook for the global economy. On the domestic front, there will be some concern with a private report that the liquidity crisis in the non-banking finance companies (NBFC) space triggered by the default of infrastructure ending major IL&FS last September is continuing to have an impact on mutual fund (MF) deployments in the sector. The overall exposure of debt MFs to NBFCs stood at Rs 2.2 lakh crore in February, a drop of Rs 45,386 crore since July 2018 when the liquidity stress first emerged. Some cautiousness may also come in with Icra's report that as many as 52 road projects worth Rs 37,019 crore were sold between 2015 and 2018, due to liquidity crisis faced by their promoters or the special purpose vehicles executing them. However, traders may take some encouragement with report that Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has made a case for setting up GST Council-like federal institutions to promote healthcare, rural development and agriculture sectors by optimally utilising resources of the centre and states. He said agriculture, rural development and healthcare is one area where the central government spends a lot of money on supporting farmers, creating infrastructure and building health centres for poor population. Meanwhile, Information Technology Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad has said the IT sector has created 8.73 lakh new jobs in the past five years. There will be some reaction in sugar sector stocks with report that the food ministry has asked states to ensure that sugar mills are not selling the sweetener at below the minimum selling price (MSP), which has been increased recently to Rs 31 a kilogram from Rs 29. It said all mills have to sell sugar at Rs 31 a kg plus GST and transportation charges and action may be taken against mills selling sugar below floor price.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

11,521.05

11,497.40

11,550.40

BSE Sensex

38,386.75

38,305.37

38,478.97

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

IOC

360.67

159.00

155.55

162.60

ONGC

286.76

151.85

149.28

155.73

NTPC

280.99

129.25

126.23

134.13

Yes Bank

268.17

252.15

248.03

254.63

Coal India

202.69

237.00

233.80

242.40

 

  • SBI has inked memorandum of understanding with Bank of China, in a bid to enhance business synergies between both the banks. 
  • Bharti Airtel has transferred additional 16.76% stake in telecom tower arm Bharti Infratel to Nettle Infrastructure Investments in two tranches.
  • NTPC's 200 kilo watt waste-to-energy plant in Karsada has achieved full generation capacity. 
  • Maruti Suzuki India has introduced new EECO with additional Safety features.
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