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NSE Intra-day chart (21 March 2017)
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Market Commentary 22 March 2017
Weak start on cards amid soft global cues


 

Extending previous session's southward journey, Indian equity benchmarks ended the session slightly in red on Tuesday. Soon after a positive start, markets entered into red terrain, as traders reacted negatively to SBI Research report which highlighted that if the UP government fulfills its farmer loan waiver promise, banks are likely to take a hit of Rs 27,420 crore and the scheme will lead to some stress on the state's fiscal arithmetic. The BJP had in its UP election manifesto promised to waive farmers' loans if elected to power. The report said that schedule commercial banks together had an outstanding farm credit of Rs 86,241.20 crore in UP with the average ticket size of Rs 1.34 lakh, as of 2016, most of which is to small and marginal farmers.  However, some recovery took place in last leg of trade and pared most of their initial losses, as investors opted to buy beaten-down but fundamentally strong stocks. Traders took some support with report that Cabinet cleared four supporting GST legislations, paving the way for their introduction in Parliament. Once approved by Parliament, the states would start taking their SGST bill for discussion and passage in the respective state assemblies. Positive opening in European markets too provided some support, as investors eyed rising oil prices and intensifying talks between Greece and its euro zone creditors. Asian shares hit 15-month highs on Tuesday, while the dollar and US bond yields were on the back foot on the prospect of a less-hawkish Federal Reserve policy trajectory. Back home, finally the  BSE Sensex decreased 33.29 points or 0.11% to 29,485.45, while the CNX Nifty was down by 5.35 points or 0.06% to 9,121.50. 

 

The US markets closed lower on Tuesday, as the Dow and the Nasdaq logged their worst daily drops since September, while the S&P 500 also tumbled the most in a single session in five months. Investors were worried that President Donald Trump will struggle to deliver promised tax cuts that propelled the market to record highs in recent months, with nervousness deepening ahead of a key healthcare vote. Despite the recent move lower, equities have been in a pronounced uptrend for months, up more than 10% since the US election. Investors are betting that the policies Trump is expected to pursue, including on taxes and regulation, will accelerate economic growth and boost corporate profits. On the economy front, the US current-account deficit, a measure of the nation's debt to other countries, fell 3.1% to $112.4 billion in the final quarter of 2016. The drop in the current-account deficit in the fourth quarter was tied to a surprisingly large increase in primary income - returns on American-owned assets held abroad. That offset a larger trade deficit in goods. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 237.85 points or 1.14 percent to 20,668.01, the Nasdaq was down 107.7 points or 1.82 percent to 5,793.83, while S&P 500 dropped 29.45 points or 1.24 percent to 2,344.02. 

 

Crude oil futures resumed their decline on Tuesday, just a day after showing some recovery. Traders were concerned with expectations of brimming U.S. oil stockpiles, ahead of a report on U.S. inventories from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) due to be released on Wednesday. Investors feared that the next batch of inventories data would reveal a rise in U.S. crude stockpiles and disregarded a report suggesting that OPEC oil producers increasingly favor extending its deal to cut oil production beyond June. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery declined by $0.88 to $47.34 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for May delivery ended down by $0.60 at $51.02 on the ICE.

 

Extending its gains for the second straight session, Indian rupee strengthened against dollar on Tuesday due to sustained selling of the US currency by exporters and banks. Traders took some support with report that Cabinet cleared four supporting GST legislations, paving the way for their introduction in Parliament. Once approved by Parliament, the states would start taking their SGST bill for discussion and passage in the respective state assemblies. Though, weak trade in the local equity market capped some gains. On the global front, dollar slipped against yen after Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans reinforced the perception that the US central bank won't accelerate the pace of its interest rate hikes. Finally, the rupee ended at 65.28, 8 paise stronger from its previous close of 65.36 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5482.03 crore against gross selling of Rs 4863.12 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2477.70 crore with gross sales of Rs 1221.79 crore.

 

The US markets suffered sharp slump in the last session on uncertainty about the fate of the Republican plan to repeal and replace Obamacare ahead of an anticipated vote on Thursday. The Asian markets following the US counterparts have made a weak start and some of the indices in the region are down by over a percent in early deals, concern continued amid uncertainty over prospects for the U.S. president's policies. The Indian markets fell further in last session, though the decline was modest with some sign of recovery in the final hours. Today, the start is likely to be in red on feeble global cues. There will be some cautiousness with government continuing the clampdown on cash transactions, proposing to further tighten payment norms by capping cash transactions at Rs 2 lakh. Finance Minister in all has moved 40 amendments to the Finance Bill 2017. Meanwhile, the government has said it is not possible to pinpoint the impact of demonetisation on GDP as economic growth is contingent on a number of factors. However, as per the second advance estimates released by the Central Statistics Office on February 28, based mostly on information for the first nine to ten months of 2016-17, the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) at constant market prices is estimated to be 7.1 per cent in 2016-17. The traders will also be eyeing the rupee movement in today's trade, which gained further ground against dollar and reached its 17 months high and may weigh down the IT and technology stocks. There will be some buzz in the infra stocks on reports that NITI Aayog will prepare a list of 10 big infrastructure projects that can be developed under the public private partnership (PPP) mode. The list would be prepared after taking into consideration the details of such big projects that would be provided by the states in the coming weeks.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

9121.50

9089.88

9150.43

BSE Sensex

29485.45

29382.04

29586.95

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

IDEA

886.01

92.95

89.35

97.30

ICICI Bank

148.22

272.05

269.83

275.53

ITC

132.25

287.90

284.40

290.00

SBI

118.98

272.35

269.32

276.22

Axis Bank

110.18

488.30

482.90

496.85

 

  • HCL Technologies has been chosen as the strategic IT services provider to the Volvo Ocean Race.
  • ICICI Bank has launched mobile banking app for rural customers that allow them to access banking services as well as information on agri services.
  • IndusInd Bank has inaugurated a new branch in Faridabad, which is a major industrial hub in the state of Haryana.
  • Aurobindo Pharma has received final approval from the USFDA to manufacture Guaifenesin and Dextromethorphan Hydrobromide extended-release tablets, 600/30 mg and 1200/60mg.

 

News Analysis