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NSE Intra-day chart (21 January 2020)
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Market Commentary 22 January 2020
Markets likely to get a positive start on Wednesday

 

Bears held their grip over Dalal Street on Tuesday, with Sensex & Nifty losing over 200 & 50 points, respectively. Markets made a sluggish start of the day, as the International Monetary Fund slashed India's growth estimate to 4.8% for 2019. Though, it expects growth to be 5.8% in 2020 & rise to 6.5% in 2021. The street remained worried with a survey report stating that a record level of pessimism has creeped into the CEOs across the world regarding the worldwide economic growth. For the first time, more than half of the CEOs surveyed by global consultancy PwC said they believe the rate of global GDP growth will decline. Weakness persisted in the markets during the whole day, on the back of weak global markets. Traders remained pessimistic, even after the retirement fund body, Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) in its latest Provisional Estimate of Net Payroll data report showed that India created 1162863 new jobs in the month of November 2019 as against revised figure of 647764 in October 2019. The street overlooked a UN report showing that India was among the top 10 recipients of Foreign Direct Investment in 2019, attracting $49 billion in inflows, a 16% increase from the previous year, driving the FDI growth in South Asia. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 205.10 points or 0.49% to 41,323.81, while the CNX Nifty was down by 54.70 points or 0.45% to 12,169.85.

 

The US markets ended lower on Tuesday, following the holiday on Monday, amid concerns about the economic impact of a deadly coronavirus outbreak in China. Chinese officials revealed the coronavirus outbreak has resulted in six deaths among nearly 300 confirmed cases, with the virus confirmed to be transmissible among humans. Meanwhile, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed the first travel-related case of the coronavirus in the United States. It said the first case of coronavirus infection in the US was diagnosed in the state of Washington in a patient who recently returned from Wuhan, China. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization was said to be considering declaring an international public health emergency over the virus, as it did with swine flu and Ebola. Sentiments were also downbeat on report that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downwardly revised its forecast for global economic outlook due to bigger than expected slowdowns in emerging markets like India. The IMF said it now expects 3.3 percent global growth in 2020 compared to its previous estimate for 3.4 percent growth. The organization also lowered its 2021 growth forecast to 3.4 percent from 3.6 percent. Besides, President Donald Trump's impeachment trial began in earnest on Tuesday, with Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell submitting a proposal that could result in a speedy trial and Trump possibly being acquitted of wrongdoing. 

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Tuesday as investors worry about rising global supplies and a potential slowdown in global economic growth overshadowed a supply disruption in the Middle East due to unrest in Libya and Iraq. In a monthly report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast a monthly rise in US shale oil production of 22,000 barrels a day to 9.2 million barrels a day in February. Oil output from the Permian Basin is expected to see the biggest increase, but oil output from the Anadarko, Eagle Ford and Niobrara regions are expected to see monthly declines. Crude oil futures for February lost 20 cents or 0.3 percent to settle at $58.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. March Brent declined 61 cents or 0.9 percent to settle at $64.59 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Continuing its weakening trend for the fourth straight session, Indian rupee depreciated marginally against dollar on Tuesday, on increased demand for the US currency from importers. Traders remain concerned after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its growth estimate for India to 4.8% for 2019. IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said growth in India slowed sharply owing to stress in the non-bank financial sector and weak rural income growth. It also expects growth to be 5.8% in 2020 and rise to 6.5% in 2021. The weak trade in the local equity market also adversely impacted local forex trade. However, dollar losing sheen against other currencies overseas capped the losses to some extent. On the global front, yen rallied on Tuesday, as the spread of a pneumonia-like virus in China sparked a sudden bout of risk aversion and rattled world markets. Finally, the rupee ended at 71.21, 10 paise weaker from its previous close of 71.11 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5926.44 crore against gross selling of Rs 4624.98 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 438.86 crore with gross sales of Rs 345.74 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8.98 crore against gross selling of Rs 8.38 crore.

 

The US markets ended in red on Tuesday amid reports that the Chinese coronavirus had spread to the US raising fears of a pandemic that might affect global economic growth. Asian markets are trading mostly higher on Wednesday amid authorities confirmed more than 300 cases of the virus in China and US President Donald Trump's impeachment trial formally opened in the Senate. Indian markets ended range-bound trade in red on Tuesday for second consecutive session after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered growth estimate for India to 4.8% for 2019. Today, the markets are likely to open in green after heavy sell-offs in the last two sessions and as poor economic growth outlook raises prospects of further government measures in the Budget. Some encouragement will come with Union Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that India is working on ways to have fairer and more equitable terms in its trade relationships with various countries. Besides, traders may take note of report that the government has set up a National Startup Advisory Council to advise the Centre on measures needed to build a strong ecosystem for nurturing innovation and start-ups in the country. Though, some cautiousness may come with a private report that direct tax collections between April to January 15 of this fiscal, have shown a negative growth of -6.1 percent. There will be some buzz in the Telecom stocks as the Supreme Court agreed to hear telcos' petitions to modify its October 24 order that made them liable to pay up more than Rs 1 trillion of adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues by January 23. Auto stocks will be in focus with Automobile dealers' body FADA stating that retail sales of passenger vehicles in December 2019 declined 9 percent to 2,15,716 units year-on-year, as even the best offers failed to lift weak consumer sentiments. There will be some reaction in insurance stocks with global ratings agency Moody's Investors Service's statement that despite low penetration, the ongoing economic slowdown will impact insurance premium collections over the next two to three years. Also, there will be some buzz in the FMCG stocks with a private report stating that after falling for five quarters, a recovery in growth could be on the horizon for the country's fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector. There will be lots of important earnings announcements too, to keep the markets in action.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

12,169.85

12,144.75

12,212.50

BSE Sensex

41,323.81

41,234.54

41,472.83

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Yes Bank

672.16

38.35

37.90

39.00

Bharti Airtel

640.01

511.75

505.77

516.37

Indian Oil Corporation

465.12

114.80

113.22

117.42

SBI

305.92

313.70

311.48

316.43

Bharti Infratel

246.34

240.50

228.75

247.90

 

  • Tata Motors has introduced the holistic ZConnect, which offers 35 advanced connected car features that will electrify drive experience with seamless connection to its Nexon EV. 
  • Eicher Motors' motorcycle arm -- Royal Enfield has unveiled its model Himalyan with BS-VI compliant engine with price starting at Rs 1.86 lakh. 
  • ICICI Bank has launched a cardless cash withdrawal facility from its ATMs with a per-day transaction limit of Rs 20,000. 
  • Bajaj Finance has added three new products under its Pocket Insurance and Subscriptions category.
News Analysis