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NSE Intra-day chart (19 January 2016)
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Market Commentary 20 January 2016
Markets to make a gap-down start on feeble regional cues


A session after capitulating to late sell-off, Indian benchmark indices managed to pull through a scintillating performance by rallying over a percentage point on Tuesday, thanks to the hefty short covering in the beaten down Banking and high beta Capital Goods counters. Sentiments got a boost with report that Indian economy is expected to grow by 7.9 per cent in the next fiscal and may progress at a similar pace over a couple of years extending beyond 2019. The report also added that the various macro parameters show that India has and is likely to perform better than its peers in the near term. Besides, firm global cues coupled with the appreciation in rupee value against the dollar added to the optimistic sentiments. However, gains remained capped with Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan's statement that implementation remains the major challenge for India's economy and if it can deliver on its promises the country will be 'the place to be'. Furthermore, investors also remained cautious with India's Group of 20 summit negotiator Arvind Panagariya's statement that India would be very concerned if China were to allow a major devaluation in the yuan currency, adding that he doubted Beijing would allow this to happen. He also said that the strength of the Indian rupee against many currencies had contributed to the weak export performance of Asia's third-largest economy. On the global front, Asian markets bounced back in afternoon trade, European equities too bounced back from 13-month lows on Tuesday. Back home, the frontline indices sooner than later capitalized on the momentum and crossed the psychological 24,400 and 7,400 levels. Thereafter, the indices kept oscillating in a narrow range through the day's trade. However, hefty short covering in the late hours helped the indices to bounce to higher levels but mild resistance around the 24,500 and 7,450 levels pushed the key gauges back to a small extent by the end of trade. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 291.47 points or 1.21% to 24479.84, while the CNX Nifty ended up by 84.10 points or 1.14% to 7,435.10.

 

The US markets closed mostly higher on Tuesday, as the S&P 500 and Dow industrials managed to hold on to minor gains amid a renewed rout in oil prices that took the wind out of an early rally. Tuesday's fleeting rebound in stocks after a brutal two-week start to the year came on report of a slowdown in Chinese economic growth which spurred stimulus hopes and comforted investors who had feared worse. Meanwhile, declining earnings continued to weigh on investor sentiment. On the economy front, a gauge of home builder sentiment remained steady at 60 in January. That was unchanged from a downwardly-revised reading in December. Readings over 50 signal improvement and readings in the low 60s show a gradual improvement, which should bode well for future home sales in the year ahead. The index is down from a 10-year high of 65 in October, but still higher than the overall 2015 average of 59. The sub-gauge that tracks current sales conditions rose 2 points to 67 in January, but the future sales component dipped 3 points to 63. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 27.94 points or 0.17 percent to 16,016.02, the S&P 500 was up by 1.00 points or 0.05 percent to 1,881.33 while, the Nasdaq was down 11.47 points or 0.26 percent to 4,476.95. 

 

Crude oil futures collapsing further plunged to 12-year lows amid supply glut and weakening demand concern. Fears about demand from China hit crude oil prices after China's government said the nation's economic growth rate eased to 6.8% for the fourth quarter and 6.9% for 2015. Investors continued to digest Iran's historic return to global energy markets. In recent months, however, Iran has reportedly lined up customers to purchase about 300,000 bpd, as financial restrictions continue to be eased. Benchmark crude oil futures for February delivery declined by $0.80 or 2.62 percent to close at $29.62 a barrel after trading in a range of $29.42 and $31.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent oil futures for March delivery was up by $0.29 or 1.02 percent to $28.84 a barrel on the ICE.

 

Indian rupee after slipping to its fresh two years low in last session on poor trade balance figures, bounced back on Tuesday, on fresh selling of the American currency by exporters. Positive cues from other Asian currencies too supported the rupee, though it pared most of its gains by last. The domestic currency remained in optimistic mood from the very beginning and the positive start, followed by good gains in the local equity markets strengthened the rupee further. Also, it was said that RBI through state-owned banks sold dollars to stem up the rupee. On the global front, the euro remained slightly lower against the dollar on Tuesday after a report showing that German economic sentiment deteriorated this month. Finally, the rupee ended at 67.65, 3 paise stronger from its previous close of 67.68 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in equity and in debt segments both. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3131.97 crore against gross selling of Rs 4998.03 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 256.50 crore with gross sales of Rs 272.47 crore.     

 

The US markets made a mixed closing in last session, sensing some relief from heavy recent losses amid hopes for stimulus from China's central bank. However, plunging oil prices prevented a more robust rebound. The Asian markets have made a weak start, with many of the indices reversing their last session gains trading down by 1-2 percent in early deals, as crude oil dipped below $28 a barrel and the International Monetary Fund reinvigorated concerns about global growth. Indian markets witnessed a relief rally in last session and surged by over a percent, taking cues from the gains in regional peers and supported by some good earnings. Today, the start is once again going to be in deep red tailing the slump in Asian peers on global growth concern. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecasts for the third time in less than a year. The IMF cited a sharp slowdown in China trade and weak commodity prices that are hammering Brazil and other emerging markets. Markets after a gap-down start may get some comfort with minister of state for finance Jayant Sinha's statement that the finance ministry and the Reserve Bank of India are working in tandem on a comprehensive solution to the stressed assets held by banks through asset-quality reviews followed by specific solutions. Also, a private survey has stated that almost two-thirds of Indian CEOs (64 per cent) are confident of their company's growth prospects over the next 12 months. Power stocks will be in action, as the government will consider a new power tariff policy which aims at promoting clean energy, better regulation of discoms and faster rollout of investments. There will be some scrip specific movement based on earnings announcements, with Reliance Industries third-quarter profit surged 39 per cent to Rs. 7,290 crore, an eight-year high, helped by a fall in global crude oil prices

 

 

Support and Resistance: NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

CNX Nifty

7435.10

7378.58

7477.18

BSE Sensex

24479.84

24296.93

24613.04

 

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

Volume

(in Lacs)

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

Vedanta

255.13

69.25

67.30

71.15

SBI

245.02

182.95

180.37

186.67

ICICI Bank

147.48

228.75

225.18

231.78

Axis Bank

142.16

393.00

380.67

400.67

Tata Motors

73.05

354.15

345.03

360.23

 

  • Asian Paints shall be launching a comprehensive sanitary ware range by end of January, 2016 under the brand name 'Ess Ess by Asian Paints'.
  • Bharti Airtel, a leading global telecommunications company with operations in 20 countries across Asia and Africa, has added 25.10 lakh users in December, 2015.
  • Maruti Suzuki India will open 250 Nexa outlets by 2016-17, from 100 now and double its employees in these outlets to 5,000.
  • Idea Cellular, one of the biggest cellular carrier of the country, has added 12.48 lakh new mobile subscribers in December, 2015.
  • Zee Entertainment Enterprises will expand to Germany to launch a free-to-air TV channel by mid - 2016.
News Analysis